ES Morning Update December 31st 2021

A whole lot of nothing yesterday until the close when bulls finally gave up into the close and allowed a small move down. That 4800 level is just too tough of a resistance zone I guess for them to get through, but again next week is historically very bullish the first few days… meaning a move through 4800 is very likely.

It would be the “C” pattern on the chart I posted on yesterdays update. We’ve been in the “B” pattern all week and next is the “C”, which could take us to 4850-4880 if they have lured in enough bears to short this 4800 zone this week… meaning the more bears the bigger the squeeze on them. This ABCD pattern repeats and repeats and repeats, so I really don’t see any reason why they don’t do it again this time around too.

The support zone below is around 4745, the prior high area, so as long as the market doesn’t trade below there today then no damage is done to the bulls and they should still run it higher again early next week.  The market has made a bear flag afterhours on the 30 minute chart so if it plays out that 4745 area should be hit.  Still though… it’s going to be super light volume today so it might not happen.

Starting somewhere in the second week of January is when the bearish period shows up, and it lasts into early February. If there’s any chance of the market dropping to the 4400′s area it will be during this period. And after that we should see the next big rally start I assume, which should be a powerful one.  But, if we continue too much higher then we could have skipped the drop to the 4400′s and might do a much bigger drop.

Meaning that we might go up to around 5000 and then drop to 3000 (or lower?) into April or May and from there we start another mega rally to 6000+ into 2023/24.  Way too early to know right now, but the higher we go the lower the odds of the 4400 zone stopping the next decline.  Have a wonderful and Happy New Year this weekend.