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ES Morning Update December 7th 2021

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Finally! The B wave bounce is now in play and should top out and end today, but whether or not is gets through that falling blue trendline of resistance or not is unknown. It shouldn’t but SkyNet is sneaky and might go sideways to slightly down all day to make a bull flag and then at the last minute pop higher through it to run the stops.

That pop could happen into the close today or afterhours, but it should NOT hold… it would only be a stop run and a fake breakout. On my chart I posted yesterday I guessed at the 4627 level as the top as that was around that 23.6% line in light blue… but that Fibonacci chart starts at the September low, so it’s not the one I should be focused on.

The one on the left of that in RED is the correct one and you can see that the 61.8% mark is at 4645.57, then 4687.32 at the 78.6% level. It could do that fake out “pop” to run the stops and hit that higher level or just stop here at the resistance from the falling light blue trendline. But either way that should be all she wrote for this B wave up and next should be the C wave down to the 4400′s into this Friday most likely. It might carry into Sunday night but by the open next Monday we should have bottomed for this entire ABC correction. At that point we should just blast off to the upside into the rest of this year and early next year too.

My best guess is that we’ll reach the 4900′s by the end of the month and over 5000 into early January. It might sound crazy here expecting another lower low as this looks just like the September pattern, where it just pulled back about half of the up move, which currently would be back to around 4580 or so, and then it blasted off to new all time highs in the following few weeks. I seriously doubt if we repeat that same “easy to spot” pattern.

Either I’m completely wrong and there’s no pullback at all, just a continued grind higher, or I’m right and the pullback of half that happened in September will be repeated to lure in bulls… but it doesn’t hold and a drop to the 4400′s happens to hit all the bull stops. Only from that low can this market scream higher into the rest of the year as the bears start shorting every move higher. They will be squeezed into January for sure before any breather happens for them.

As for today just look for them to go sideways all day to lure in bears to short it as they see this trendline of resistance I’m sure. But be aware that a fake out move through that trendline could happen before we rollover, which should start tomorrow. Have a blessed day.


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