The FP on the SPY of 469.79 has now been hit and pierced, which was right around a 4705 gap fill on the ES as well, so all that is left is another trip south to take out the triple bottom and all the bulls that went long there because the pattern was just like the September triple bottom.
This move down could start at today or drag out for week and then do it, I just don’t know which? With the short term chart very overbought now I’d have to think it will start today but of course that doesn’t mean we are going to reach the bottom in the 4400′s by the end of this week. I might? I wish I knew but usually they drag out the down moves over a longer period as we’ve seen already from the first drop, which took weeks, not days.
However, this last drop should be a C wave of some degree with the rally up being the B wave. And C waves are much faster and more violent… plus we have the ol’ “Pit Bull” low tomorrow and/or Friday. So while the odds are not high that it drops this fast it’s still possible. The “timing” of these moves is always a “best guess” based on prior moves in the past. And the past shows that the second drop “aka… the C wave” is usually shorter in time and deeper in points and/or percentage value.
They won’t make this easy as they never do, but I still see one more lower low before the real rally starts. And I still think we are going into the low 4400′s before we bottom. Whether they get it over with this week or next is what I don’t know? Usually they like to rally up the week of the monthly options expiration (OPEX), which is next week (always the third Friday of the month).
That’s why I still keep the door open for the drop to complete this week, or maybe into Sunday/Monday of next week. Otherwise I’d go with a ton of chop next week due to it being OPEX and then the last drop the following week, which is closer to Christmas. They did that move back in 2018 so that’s still fresh in traders mind, therefore I’m not giving it high odds. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. Only time will tell. Have a blessed day.
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