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Will There Be a V-Shaped Recovery?

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There are 3 pertinent portfolio construction topics as we head into the fall:

  1. How do we position portfolios for structurally higher inflation in the years to come? In 1970s/1980s, inflation stayed high for 5-10 years. As we like to say, once the genie comes out of the bottle, it’s hard to put it back in. Most 60/40 portfolios still have a lot of long duration & deflationary exposure and may not do well in an environment of higher inflation/higher rates.
  2. There is an insatiable demand for income globally. Right now, you can buy a 6-month treasury bond and collect 3%, or perhaps you might venture off in credit land and buy IG bonds to collect 4-5%. Is that 200bps differential enough if the economy goes into a recession (and those bonds potentially get marked down 10-15%)?
  3. The macro data continues to worsen. What happens if we go into an earnings recession? Many clients do not want to own liquid alternatives. How do we hedge portfolios?


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