ES Morning Update December 12th 2022
Well, the market did not rally up on Friday so it could pullback today. Instead it pulled back and closed just under the falling orange/yellow trendline, which was still higher then the prior low a of 3914 on 12/7 and 3912.50 on 11/17.
I don’t know if those lows will hold or not but if they don’t we should go to the 38.2% level at 3877.74 or 50% at 3806… and possibly 3734.26 where the 61.8% level is at. That would make a nice C wave down for a perfect ABC from the 4110 high, but that seems so predictable that I’d be shocked if it plays out that easily.
It would also kill the bull flag the market has been making for the last 2 weeks and there’s too many reasons here to be bullish and not bearish. So terminating that pattern would just not make sense to me. Now, could we have a quick “stop run” that reverses back up within an hour or two that drops to below 3900… yes. It would be from the CPI numbers on Tuesday morning or something from the Fed on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting.
An “event move” basically, but not a real trend. It doesn’t have to do that of course but it could and I’d still remain bullish for the bigger picture. Everything tells me this past two weeks is just a wave 2 pullback and that a wave 3 up is coming next. This week is full of catalysts that could cause such a move, and we will be starting the most bullish period of the month, the ol’ Christmas Rally.
There’s not much to add today from a technical point of view as the market is still chopping around in this bull flag zone from about 3900 to 4100 roughly. It won’t last forever as at some point a breakout or breakdown is coming. Until it happens there’s not much to do but wait. Get your popcorn, hot dogs, beer and seats as the battle between the bulls and bears is going to show a leader soon. Have a blessed day.
Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2022/12/12/es-morning-update-december-12th-2022/
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