ES Morning Update February 15th 2023

CPI Bust! We did kinda what I felt was going to happen… a whole lot of shaking the tree to make the bulls and bears fall out! I mentioned in a post last week that I suspected this CPI day would not be like the December 13th 2022 one that produced a pop and drop that started a nasty sell off. Or a drop and pop that produced the October low and bear squeeze that followed afterwards for several months.

It would just be too obvious to repeat either prior move, so what did SkyNet do instead… closed about flat to leave both sides guessing about the future direction. And of course the intraday swings were crazy and I’m sure they trapped many traders on the wrong side.

For me I was just looking for the close, which is still below last weeks high, meaning there’s no damage yet for the bear case. It all just noise right now before a big move starts out of nowhere, and I still think it will be down. We are just starting the most bearish period of February from a Seasonality point of view and even into early March that continues.

Bulls will have to chop in a range for several weeks to build a base before the bearish case will become dead, and yes, that’s possible. I don’t know the future but I just can’t get bullish here as it’s way too extended on the upside and hasn’t pulled back nowhere near enough to attract the smart money. They are not buying up here.

You can see in the DOW that its’ went sideways for several months now. Yes, that’s technically a bull flag but the money that flows into the DOW is mostly from other countries seeking safety as it’s one of the most stable indexes. And there’s clearly no more big money coming into it now as it’s stuck in a sideways pattern.  So I wouldn’t get too excited on the bull flag playing out.

The SPX/ES can’t get through 4200 as there’s big boys around that zone that keep selling into rallies. They aren’t buying here that’s for sure. It’s only the retail money buying as they are looking for 4300, 4400 or even 4600, but without the big funds buying it’s not going anywhere north in any hurry… not “big” at least.

I don’t know “when” but I just feel it… a big ol’ rug pull is coming soon. My money is on the line here and if I’m wrong I lose it… it’s just that’s simple. We shall see. Have a blessed day.

50 cents is back.

A new crash bet was placed on the market today via the May 17 VIX calls. The trader purchased 100K of those calls paying $5.3m for the crash bet. pic.twitter.com/UjYtYOBWLe

— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) February 15, 2023