ES Morning Update February 23rd 2023

The market did a pretty good job yesterday of holding the support area, which is down to about 3950 or so. It’s oversold now on the RSI of the 6hr chart and getting down there on the Daily too, so odds are pretty good that the low was put in yesterday.

The chart below (from yesterday) shows how close the RSI is to oversold.  It could go lower but it’s in a range where it commonly turns back up.

Not a guarantee of course but good odds. So today should start going back up and that should continue into Friday too. If all goes well we’ll hit the FP on QQQ and top out again and then pullback next week for a repeat of this week. It’s hard to know for sure if that FP is going to stop the market but if everyone gets super bullish back up there again then we have a good clue that 4200 zone won’t be broken through.

I still think we’ll stay range bound until the March OPEX. The trend is still bearish until then, so the pressure is going to still be on the bears. This should keep the breakout from happening until the Seasonality turns bullish again. If by mid-March the market is down low enough to get the bears woke up and the bulls to give up then we could get a rally back up to breakout over 4200. Until that happens I don’t see any edge for either side. Not much else to add. Have a blessed day.