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A Fed Put of a Different Kind

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Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don’t buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading 
model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:
  • Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
  • Trend Model signal: Bullish*
  • Trading model: Bullish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on Twitter at @humblestudent and on Mastodon at @[email protected]. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 
Market stabilization
Last week, I suggested that one of the key conditions for a sustainable rally is for the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) to hold long-term support despite Friday’s market jitters over the stability of Deutsche Bank. While KRX has held support, it disappointed the bulls by refusing to rally off the bottom.  We interpret this to mean that market sentiment over the banking crisis has stabilized.

 

The Fed Put has been activated, but it’s a put of a different kind. Investors can return to more mundane matters such as technical and fundamental analysis.
The full post can be found here.
 
 


Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2023/03/a-fed-put-of-different-kind.html


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    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    Total 1 comment
    • beLIEve

      DE~DOLLARIZATION ….IS……..the REJECTION by BRICS +……..of the ….ABUSE / EN$LAVEMENT /

      IMPOVERISHMENT / Denial of SOVEREIGNTY…………by the FAKE “j00″…..”CENTRAL BANKING”………

      ”we$tern” BANKING CY$T~ em.

      ***

      CBDC………..CRIMINAL BANK$TER ~ DEMONIC COIN……….is a CONTINUANCE; upon the people, living in

      the WEST………of the SAME EN$LAVEMENT………that the BRICS+……….are REJECTING :!: :idea:

      ***

      WE; the PEOPLE…..also…….HAVE to REJECT………the FAKE “j00″……..THIEVING / EN$LAVING

      so-called BANK$TER$…and……..”their ” CY$T ~ EM$…….without WALKING INTO yet

      ANOTHER…..TRAP. :idea:

      * :evil: * :idea: *

      The COLLAPSE of the BANKING SECTOR…….represents; Imho and, at the VERY LEAST….

      ….INCOMPETENCE & FRAUD :?: :idea:

      The PERPE-TRAITORS are UNFIT to have EVER…….operated the BANKING $ystem / $WINDLE.

      NONE of those COMPLICIT in SUCH INCOMPETENCE are FIT to occupy any POSITION of

      “authority / power” and, certainly NO FORM of “care” of the ASSETS of others. :idea:

      ***

      Again, and Imho, I SUSPECT …..the DUNG HEAP of DEPRAVITIES….anticipated the

      GENOCIDE of ManKIND with the DEATH JAB / PCR Test….and…..therefore…..

      UNCLAIMED BANK deposits……..aka………NO Bank Runs :!:

      The $WINDLED Customers would….ALL be….6 feet “under” :!: :evil:

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