ES Morning Update March 14th 2023

What a wild day yesterday, but it’s kinda what I was expecting. I didn’t know what event would be blamed on it of course as that isn’t known until after it happens. So the wild swings can be blamed on the banks I guess, but it’s all in the charts in advance so I really don’t care about the news.

Everything still tells me that we will be weak until around Wednesday and then start to move up into Friday for the ol’ “pinning effect” so that max pain happens in the options that expire on OPEX. And since there’s way more people short right now, in fear of this bank failure, that’s another reason to believe we’ll rally up into the end of this week to make the puts expire worthless.

Of course next Monday and Tuesday is open for another nasty drop in fear of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. This again is lining up with my thoughts of a lot of wild moves both directions until “almost” the end of the month. The FOMC meetings haven’t being “turn windows” for a long time.

The Fed doesn’t want the blame for anything said, so there’s been nothing but chop on the Thursday and Friday after all the recent meetings in the past, and then the following week is more common for any “turn” to happen. Meaning that the last week of this month has the better odds of a good rally starting up into early April with 4100 as the target for the bulls to hit and take out.

I do not know what the level will be, as I’m really just focused on the time window and what the technicals tell me. Plus the pattern it’s making and the wave count as last and least important. The pattern and technicals are the most important. This is why I must wait until that first week of April before I even start to look for “the big short” as between now and then there’s nothing but day trade shorts (and longs) because of the chop expected. For today I really don’t have much of an opinion but tomorrow we should see some weakness. Have a blessed day.