ES Morning Update March 17th 2023

We got the nice up day yesterday and there’s not much left at this point. Today should be a pause day where we close a little down I think. Then we should pullback deeper on Monday, which could go all the way back down to the breakout level around 3940, or deeper?

But I don’t think it stays down as it’s likely to be bought and move back up into the close for another “pause” day… meaning it’s slightly red or green but nothing big either way. Then Tuesday could be another pause day as the market waits on the FOMC on Wednesday. I don’t expect the Fed to pause so if we get the two pause days in front of the meeting then odds are that we’ll be overbought again and another move will start afterwards.

It should be the 3-6 day period where the market gets fully oversold and bottoms for Tiny Wave 1 (T1) down. This assumes it hasn’t already bottomed, which I don’t know for certain but I lean toward it NOT bottoming yet. I did a chart with it bottoming already and posted in the chatroom yesterday, and here’s that chart for those the just read the posts and don’t come into the chatroom.

Again, I’m leaning toward Tiny Wave 1 down dragging out into the end of the month and then Tiny Wave 2 up starts and ends into early-mid April. But I have to remain open to the timeline being sped up and it having already ending. I really won’t know until after the FOMC next week as if after 3-6 days following it the market still hasn’t broken the recent low on March 13th for the ES (3839) and/or 3808 on the SPX cash, then I’ll have to think it did bottom at that low.

That means we’ll probably be in a “B Wave” pullback inside Tiny Wave 2 up, for that higher low… and it further would mean that the last week of March would start the “C Wave”, and that suggests it should end in early April. The difference between where Tiny Wave 1 down ends basically just adds a week or so more time onto when Tiny Wave 2 would end. Again, I’ll just have to adjust when we get there. Have a great weekend.