ES Morning Update March 22nd 2023

Nice move up by the bulls yesterday, which hit the top of the range I was looking for. It may go a little higher today but everything looks good for a pullback into the close and probably some of Thursday too.

My guess is that it that 3960-70 holds on the ES into Thursday, (3925-3935 SPX) and then we go back up to revisit the highs from yesterday and today and close out the week near the highs. A small pullback like that will keep the bears trapped and they will want to give up if we close up again on Friday. Nothing has changed from yesterday as far as the wave count, as we are just waiting for Extra Tiny Wave A (ETA) up to end.

It ran the stops yesterday over the 3/17 high zone and I’m sure many people are looking for the 3/6 high to be hit next. However, that’s too easy to short, and SkyNet (the algo’s) rarely makes it obvious. It should not reach that level in my opinion and start a small pullback today and into part of tomorrow for Super Extra Tiny Wave A down (set A).

And assuming that that it doesn’t take out the rising white trendline today or tomorrow, which I don’t think it will, then we should rally back up into Friday to revisit this high for Super Extra Tiny Wave B… and then Super Extra Tiny Wave C (set C) drops in a 5 wave pattern into mid next week.

That drop could go all the way down to the falling red trendline again, but it should not break the 3839.25 low on the ES from 3/13 (3808.86 SPX). Calling the price low is too hard. I can only forecast that it will be Super Extra Tiny Wave C down, inside Extra Tiny Wave B… which that B can’t break the starting point of the A up or the count is wrong.   Everything I see in the technicals support that drop only being ONLY a “higher low” and NOT the start of some huge crash wave drop.

On the daily chart the market is still a lot closer to oversold on the MACD’s… even-though we’ve been rallying for over a week now. And on the RSI it’s above neutral, which is another reason to expect it to rollover next week to force both it and the MACD to get fully oversold and only then can a stronger rally up to 4100+ happen.

As of the close yesterday it’s at 54.2358 and the low on 3/10 was at 34.6198, so a move down into the low 40′s should happen next week for a higher low. Then a turn back up into early-mid April should follow and push the RSI up near overbought around 70 like many times in the past.

The MACD’s will like go positive as well by some unknown amount. So while I would like to see the market top in the first week of April it might not do so until the second week, as more time is needed I think for the overbought conditions to form on the daily chart.

And from a “trick the masses point of view” I’d have to think that the odds are much strong now that the 3/6 high will be taken out (4082.50 ES) into that April period. Why you ask? The answer is because of the fact that we took out the 3/17 high yesterday, so those stops have been hit now.

I have to think that they will hit the stops over 3/6 on that last Extra Tiny Wave C up to end Tiny Wave 2 as the next move down is going to be a bull killer. I don’t think they will want any bears onboard that southbound train as it starts, so 4100+ seems like a given into that first or second week of April. I guess that’s about it for now. Have a blessed day.