ES Morning Update March 7th 2023

The rally appears to have topped yesterday to end Super Extra Tiny Wave 4 (set 4) as it gave up all the gains by the close and put in a nice topping tail candle pattern. So today, tomorrow and possibly some of Thursday we should see the pullback happen to finish Super Extra Tiny Wave 5 (set 5), which could go into the 3900′s but could also stop around support at 4000… hard to say for sure.

Either way I don’t see 3900 breaking this week. And after this pullback to say 3950-4000, (which will end Extra Tiny Wave 3) we should see another rally back up this Friday (possibly into next Monday) to try again to reach 4100. That rally should fool everyone into thinking a breakout is coming, but it should just be the end of Extra Tiny Wave 4 (ET4), and that means Extra Tiny Wave 5 down is still coming.

It’s the one that should bottom into either OPEX on the 17th or (more likely) the FOMC meeting on the 22nd of this month. That should be in the 3700-3800 range and will end Extra Tiny Wave 5 (ET5) inside Tiny Wave 1 (T1).

Again I expect a lot of chop in that range that could a couple of weeks, but should last one week for sure.  Note: I did not show that on the wave count chart I did yesterday. That chop will be similar to the two weeks of chop in mid-December last year and will be used to lure in the bears to load up short so they can be used as fuel for the rally up into early-mid April for Tiny Wave 2 (T2).

That wave should top anywhere between 3900 up to 4100, hard too know for sure. After that the crash wave down starts with 3000-3200 as the target in the following 60-75 days.

As for today I think we get a small rally at the open that can’t hold and a rollover the rest of the day with around 4000 as the target zone.  We’ll see I guess.  Short term calls are still much harder then the bigger picture but that’s what I see for today.  Not much else to add as everything is still going as expected. Have a blessed day.