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Why the dot-plot doesn't matter

Friday, March 24, 2023 19:43

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It was a closely watched FOMC meeting. The Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, which was widely anticipated, and signaled that it would likely raise another quarter-point before it’s done. It was interpreted as a dovish hike. The Fed also published a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the “dot plot”. In the end, the “dot plot” wasn’t very relevant for two reasons. It was stale by the time it was published, and there was a high degree of uncertainty around the projections.

During these times of uncertainty, what matters more is the Fed’s reaction function to financial crises. To address that issue, I have conducted an event study of how the Fed has reacted to shocks and crises in the past in order to estimate the Powell Fed’s reaction function.

The full post can be found here.

Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2023/03/why-dot-plot-doesnt-matter.html

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