ES Morning Update April 4th 2023

If you missed yesterdays mornings post I finally was able to get it posted around 2pm EST or so. I had some computer issues and it took that long to get it back up and running.  Sorry for the delay.

Anyway, we are overbought now on the 6hr time frame (and lower ones) but not yet on the daily. This week will of course have light volume because of the holiday for Good Friday, but that doesn’t mean we won’t pullback. It just means it’s not likely going to be very much, like maybe only 20 or 30 points? Not really sure and not something I’d try to play anyway.  It could also go sideways for a day and that would qualify too as a 4 wave.

I’ll just be waiting for this Thursday to exit my longs and take a short as any pullback today (or Wednesday) should be reversed back up into Thursday. After that we should see a nice pullback of a couple hundred points I believe, which is likely going to start next week and end sometime in the week of OPEX.

Nothing has really changed from last weeks forecast as while I can’t get the day to day moves exactly correct (no one can) the overall big picture is playing out quite well. The market is doing what it does best… screw the bulls and bears equally. The swings up and down keep the market going nowhere basically.

There’s no sign of any huge breakout to new all time highs, and no sign of an imminent crash either. Now I do think that’s going to change when we get into June, July and August as the risk of a crash move will increase during that period. But for this month, and probably all of May too, the market should continue to swing both directions and end up back where it all started. Have a blessed day.