ES Morning Update May 19th 2023

Well, the market certainly went higher then I thought it would. Another big stop run happened and the squeeze keep going all day long. Now it’s looking like they plan on hitting the rising white trendline of the wedge pattern, but that’s not a guarantee of course.

The RSI is overbought now on the 6hr chart, but not on the daily, so I’m unsure if it’s needed too or not?  I think it’s going to get overbought into summer where the final high will be but SkyNet never makes it easy to figure out. One thing for sure, they hit a ton of stops today, so at least a “cooling off” period is needed before making the next big move.

I still think we go down into the end of the month, and I’m positioned short for it (early but I’m fine with it).

As for today I don’t see much but some consolidation as they have bears trapped now so they won’t likely just rollover. Probably we pullback small and then try to push up again later, maybe not today but Monday possibly?

It’s pretty clear the rally yesterday and Wednesday was a wave 3 of some degree, so a 4 down and 5 up is common. Would I love to see a reversal that doesn’t stop and never does the wave 5? Sure but that’s not usual.

I’d love to see a failed 5th wave, but the normal pattern is for a 4 wave down today and a 5 up afterwards (Monday probably, but it could do it all on Friday and close lower in the close). Not much else to say. A pullback is coming, but I don’t know how much.

If the bears are toast now (which I think most are) they will be more likely to become bulls and buy the dips. So if that happens we could still see the 4000 level into the end of the month. Have a great weekend.