ES Morning Update June 22nd 2023
So far so good. The market is doing the small bounces intraday as I thought it would and not giving the bears a good entry to short… nor letting the trapped bulls out. This should continue until the RSI gets oversold on the 6hr chart, and then the market might bounce around in a range for awhile.
My downside target is the 4300 zone roughly, but it’s really based on where the market is at when the FP on the DIA is hit. Again, it’s pointing to where the market was at on June 9th, so when it’s hit that should be about all on the downside.
That does not mean we will just rip back up as we could chop around there for a few days. It really just depends on when we hit it, as if it happens this week then I’d look for some chop down there into the middle of next week roughly. But if we start chopping around now, and hold this range the rest of this week, then we could see a one day drop to hit the FP next week and a fast reversal back up.
I don’t lean that way as the technicals suggest we’ll hit a low today or tomorrow but anything can happen, so I’m open to either. The RSI on the daily will keep downward pressure on the market, so even if the 6hr RSI gets oversold today that doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to get a strong bounce.
The closest comparison of what I think might happen is the period from the 12/13/2022 high to the bottom on 12/19, and the sideways chop that followed into 1/6/2023. I don’t expect it to chop that long but a couple of days is possible.
Currently the RSI on the 6hr chart is down around 40, so a bottom could happen today? I don’t mean “pricewise” though, as if we bottom shortly after the open the price still isn’t down low enough, so that means next week would be when another drop happens. Not much else to add that hasn’t already been covered. I’m still patiently waiting. Have a blessed day.
Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2023/06/22/es-morning-update-june-22nd-2023/
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