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ES Morning Update August 22nd 2023

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We did not get that last move down to fill the gap on the ES at 4325 that I was looking for yesterday, but we still have today to do it. After that I think the market is going up into Labor Day as I discussed yesterday. And while I might be rooting for that gap to fill now, because we got so close, they might be tricking us and saving it until the late September to early October pullback… who knows?

Leaving that gap open until later will be a magnet for the market on the next correction. I did a possible wave count yesterday and posted in the free chatroom. Here it is…

As you can see it’s “possible” that this is just a wave 4 up and that there’s still another wave 5 down yet to come. It’s not easy trying to use Elliottwave on the shorter time frames, so that could be completely wrong… I won’t know until after the fact, and that’s worthless for making money of course.

We’ll just have to wait and see what today brings us, but ideally we do make a lower low on the SPX/ES and a higher low on the RSI and MACD’s so that we can create a positive divergence. We’d want a lower high on the VIX too, so it would create a negative divergence. This would be the ideal scenario… if it plays out?

Otherwise we just have to wait for the market to hit resistance overhead and pullback for some wave 2 I guess (that assumes the low is in and that we are in a wave 1 up now). The market is still inside a falling channel and until it breaks out cleanly.  It’s doing that this morning as it’s piercing through the falling upper trendline, so today will be decision time.

How low it goes from there is the question I can’t answer, but if it goes through the trendline enough then the pullback will just be a wave 2 of some degree with the low being in on Friday and the move up from there the wave 1.  Have a blessed day.


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