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ES Morning Update August 9th 2023

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Nice and steady move up yesterday… not to fast and not too slow. This is perfect for the bulls as you don’t really want to see them have some huge up day, not until the end of course.  That’s when you want too see it as it’s an exhaustion move that squeezes out the shorts, which could happen this Thursday with the CPI and Job Data numbers to be the spark for it.

It’s the ol’ trick of tricks where the numbers for both or either is something the market views as positive, which shakes out the shorts and lures in the longs all at the same time. IF this does play out like I think is possible then we could hit the FP’s (posted yesterday) on the SPY and QQQ and top out around then, (otherwise I look for mid-September to hit them).

Since it should be a slightly higher high on the SPX of 4612 and slightly lower on the ES of 4632 I’ll just call them both double tops as that’s what they will appear like.  They will also complete Small Wave 3 up (S3)… meaning that only the DOW will still be left to complete its S3, and that should be in mid September I think. On the NDX (and QQQ) it should be Tiny Wave B (TB) or some wave inside it, whereas it doesn’t finish until the mid-September rally.

Either way this should follow my expected path that I explained on the weekend update where we go up and down, up and down, up and then down hard to the 4300 zone to hit those downside FP’s on the SPY and QQQ, as well as fill the gap on the ES at 4325. That should be into the end of September or early October.

On the SPX chart below I project a possible path…

As you can see there are two rising channels, and currently the market is in the rising one in Red, which started from the Small Wave 2 (S2) low in March of this year. The bigger rising channel is in gold and around the first of October it is at 4240, which is below the dashed horizontal red line that is at 4300, which isn’t anything important. It’s just put there to “estimate” where the SPX could be at when the ES hits and fills the 4325 gap.

There’s also the downside FP on the SPY of 433.98 from 8/1/23, which as we have seen recently (actually it’s always the case) the fake prints have been hit and pierced on every chart that I’ve found them on. How much of a piece is never know but the last one was about about 3 points, which is about 30 on the SPX, so let’s no assume it’s going to magically hit it and turn immediately. Technicals and wave counts, plus Seasonality, should still be used.

Anyway, for today I don’t really have much to say. If we are going up inside Extra Tiny Wave 5 (ET5), to finish Tiny Wave 5 (T5), and complete Small Wave 3 (S3), then it could breakdown into 5 smaller waves… meaning we could see the wave 1 up from yesterday pullback today for the 2 wave (which appears to be happening right now) and then we get the 3 wave up on Thursday with the 4 and 5 possibly on Friday?

That would trick a ton of people if we put in a slightly higher high on the SPX into the close on Friday as most will think it’s a breakout and that we are going much higher. But it should be the completion of all the waves up from the March low that started Small Wave 3, and something to short in my humble opinion.


I will add one more thought… if the upside FP’s aren’t hit on this current move up then they should be hit in the expected mid-September rally.  It might changed the wave count a little but not much as “over-throws” are allowed and that’s what they would be most likely.  I mean that a B wave bounce can some times go higher the the top and starting point of the A wave down.

It should be a lower high but occasionally it goes a little higher.  This has really only be the case since the futures market was created decades ago as the market then has “stops” to hit prior to dropping for the C wave.  This could happen if we drag out into mid-September.  I’ll talk more about it in the future if needed.

Have a blessed day.


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