ES Morning Update November 29th 2023

The failure of the market to breakout for the exhaustion squeeze up to my 4600-4620 ES target is suggesting something else is being planned by SkyNet now. It’s being around a week now with the market chopping in this range, which isn’t what I wanted to see.

The ideal scenario would have be 2-3 days max and then another squeeze up for my ET5 to complete T1 and then we could see a pullback to sub 4500 for Tiny Wave 2… but Mr. Market is sneaky and instead he’s consolidating for a longer period to reset the short term overbought charts.

This suggests there’s not going to be that final move up to 4600-4620 and then a pullback to slightly below 4500. Instead it leans toward the high already being in for Tiny Wave 1 back on 11/22 at 4580, which was a fast and brief squeeze higher that morning that most missed… including myself. Odds now shift in favor of the market currently being inside Tiny Wave 2 down, even-though it doesn’t feel or look like it. But that’s exactly how SkyNet works.

It’s super sneaky and does things that most people miss and by the time they see it the move is over with and the market is headed the other way without them. So, if I’m right we are carving out some Extra Tiny A wave in an ABC move down for Tiny Wave 2, which we might have completed that A wave and the B wave up at the high yesterday of 4577… which then puts us in the early stages of the C down right now.

They usually subdivide into 5 waves so the move down from that high might be Super Extra Tiny Wave 1, and maybe we have been in SET 2 up since the low yesterday? It’s just a “best guess” on this smaller degree waves but the point here is that if we are indeed in Tiny Wave 2 down we will likely see a quick drop for the C wave (ETC) at some point soon.

Maybe today, maybe tomorrow… but very soon. It should at least go down to the 4540′s zone, and again… the 4470-4500 ideally. Mr. Market might not give us that deep of a move but I’m certainly hoping and rooting for it.  In the end it’s not about the wave count but just catching the northbound train at the last pullback stop before it heads to the North Pole with no more passengers allowed.

Have a blessed day.