We hit 4597 yesterday on the ES, and pulled back afterwards. To me that looks like the end of Extra Tiny Wave 5 up, which also should have ended Tiny Wave 1 up. At this point I have to think we are in Tiny Wave 2 down right now.
So unless there’s some surprise news event or report to give us another move up I think we are going to pullback now, but how much I just don’t know? If we get some 100+ point down day then odds are it will be over with quickly as that will wake up the bears big time. Or it could be a slow decline that drags out in time and goes deeper then one might expect.
I lean toward the fast decline because of how little time is left until the end of the year, and I think we will make new all time highs with over 5000 possible. Therefore a “quick scare” would be the most effective in sucking in the most bears which can then be used as fuel for the big year end squeeze.
I have two possible targets for the pullback, which are based on two different trendlines. To look at this from an “upside down” point of view I drew these lines on the -ES chart, which is flipped. Here’s that chart…
It gives me a different look as we are all trained as humans that gravity pulls things to the ground. So when I look at this chart like this it opens my mind up to seeing how easy it will be for the market to bounce on it (pullback on the normal ES) to one of two white trendlines. The move up yesterday to 4597 was a perfect hit of the yellow trendline on these reversed chart.
It’s a triple bottom on it (triple top on the normal chart) and naturally it should produce a bounce. I suspect it will last 2-4 days and stop at one of those white trendlines. Then it will rollover (bounce on the regular chart) to then take out the triple bottom (top on normal chart) and head to the 4808 target.
When you look at it upside down it really makes it’s much more believable to see 5000+ by the end of this year. As for my two targets… they are around 4500 and 4460 on the ES, which are those two white trendlines. If we drop very fast then I’d look for the 4500 level to hold, but if we drop slow then I’d look for 4460 to end it.
Have a blessed day.
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