I hate to say it but I think the move down yesterday is about all we are going to get on the downside. Anything is possible but every day that goes by where the market doesn’t breakdown is just more base building on the obvious bull flag it’s been making for weeks now.
Every attempt from the bears to break support has failed. Yesterdays low of 4544 was not what I was hoping to see, as that’s just 53 points down from the 4597 high this week. It’s not exactly what a wave of the Tiny degree should produce, which is making me think I’m wrong on it and that it’s a smaller degree wave.
I posted the chart below on the DOW yesterday on Twitter and it’s worth talking about more.
I think it’s accurate for the overall big picture but I was in a hurry when I created it and I think I got the degrees of waves wrong. So I want to shift the wave degrees up one level… meaning the Small Waves should be Medium Waves and the Tiny Waves should be Small Waves.
The result is the same but because I think we are going to top out next year in Large Wave 5 I need to make this correction so it all makes sense. And I’m going to now show this again but on the daily chart this time instead of the weekly as the chart above.
Here is that new corrected chart of the DOW again…
Ok, so… the first wave up from the October 2022 low topped on 12/13/22 which is the same for the ES. That wave is Medium Wave 1, which then was followed by an ABC pullback into 3/15/23 for Medium Wave 2, and we’ve been in Medium Wave 3 up ever since.
The first move up was Small Wave 1, inside Medium Wave 3, and it topped on 8/1/23 (7/27/23 on the ES, which is the 4634 high). That move had 5 waves inside it, which were the Tiny Waves, and it’s the same on the ES/SPX. From that Small Wave 1 high we got an ABC pullback into the 10/27/23 low for Small Wave 2 down, and after that is where it gets tricky.
I’m quite sure we are in Small Wave 3 up now, inside Medium Wave 3, but the subdividing waves inside it are hard to figure out. However, I think this is how it’s unfolding… we topped on 11/8/23 for Tiny Wave 1, and pulled back into 11/9/23 for Tiny Wave 2… which puts us inside Tiny Wave 3 right now. However, I think it is subdividing into 5 smaller waves, which is common for any wave 3 of all degrees.
The move up from 11/9/23 is just Extra Tiny Wave 1 inside Tiny Wave 3 and the sideways chop we’ve had recently was just Extra Tiny Wave 2… which puts us inside Extra Tiny Wave 3 now… which, as you can clearly see on the DOW chart, it’s broken out now.
The ES/SPX will follow very soon and that means a BIG squeeze is coming for Extra Tiny Wave 3, inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave 3, inside Medium Wave 3… and finally inside Large Wave 5 up. Whew! That’s a powerful wave line up for sure. It’s a wave 3, of 3, of 3, of 3, of 5… and that’s the most powerful line up anyone could ever dream of.
What I suspect is that we will top out for Extra Tiny Wave 3 at the all time high in early to mid December. Then a brief pullback for Extra tiny Wave 4 and finally Extra Tiny Wave 5 up continues into the end of the year with 5000+ on the ES/SPX. If this all plays out like I suspect we could complete all the waves by mid-late January and then we enter a bear market.
Have a blessed day.
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