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By Red Dragon leo (Reporter)
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ES Morning Update December 4th 2023

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We finally got a move out of the two week trading zone on Friday, which wasn’t down like most expected. I wanted a nice pullback to 4500 or so to get long but the market didn’t give it to me so I got long on Thursday near the low of 4544, which I think is all we are going to get on the downside.

I explained why the move down was likely going to be limited on my new adjusted wave count on Fridays post, which is super bullish going forward the rest of this year, and early next year probably. The new wave count explains why we can’t get very much on the downside as the wave down was too small of a degree to amount to much.

I was looking for Tiny Wave 2 down but it was actually Extra Tiny Wave 2 down, so that 53 point pullback from 4597 to 4544 now makes sense because it right “in line” with what an Extra Tiny Wave should be at this point. A Tiny Wave should be 100-150 points, at least for the wave 2′s and 4′s in that degree. Obviously the wave 1′s, 3′s and 5′s are more. So, if I’m correct on this newly adjust wave count, which is always a “best guess”, we should continue the breakout this week.

This move up from the 4544 low should be Extra Tiny Wave 3, inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave 3, inside Medium Wave 3, inside Large Wave 5. Pullbacks should be small going forward, and brief in time as the larger degree waves will overpower the smaller one’s… meaning Extra Tiny Wave 4 down is likely to be just like Extra Tiny Wave 2 down was, which was only 53 points and done intraday.

After that is Extra Tiny Wave 5 up, which I think tops into mid-December where the Seasonality Chart shows some weakness. That top will end Tiny Wave 3, and then Tiny Wave 4 down could pullback 100-150 points… but that could be from a double top, who knows?

The last half of December is super bullish so my best guess on it is that Tiny Wave 5 inside Tiny Wave 3 runs up into the end of the year or early January to complete.  When Small Wave 3 tops I would expect a good pullback for Small Wave 4, which might be 200-400 points, I’m not sure? It will be hard to track once the larger degree waves start diverging in different directions. January should be full of crazy swings up and down as those bigger waves try to complete.

That Small Wave 4 down will be inside Medium Wave 3 up, inside Large Wave 5 up, so it will still have a lot of momentum and pressure on the upside when this happens. Meaning I’d lean toward a smaller pullback in points for Small Wave 4 instead of the higher range.

Of course after that will be Small Wave 5 up to end Medium Wave 3, which will be followed by a likely ABC down for Medium Wave 4, and lastly will be Medium Wave 5 up to complete Large Wave 5 and end it all. Could it all play out in January? I said on Fridays update that it could, and that’s still possible I guess, but that would be one very crazy month if it does. More likely though is that it drags out into March as the time needed for all that to play out should be at least 3 months. I won’t rule out it all ending in January but to be more reasonable I will give it more lead way. Only time will tell.

Have a blessed day.


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