Amazing! We rallied yesterday and stopped just 2 points shy of the prior high of 4598, which if it holds will end Super Extra Tiny Wave 2 up, inside Extra Tiny Wave C down, inside Tiny Wave 2. I don’t know if it continues or not but if it does then today that prior high from yesterday of 4596 should not be taken out, and we should start down for Super Extra Tiny Wave 3… which should break the 4544 horizontal support area before it finishes.
Whether that is today or not I do not know? Maybe it holds above support into the close and loses it Sunday night or Monday morning? If it loses it then we should see 4470-4500 before the FOMC next Wednesday. HOWEVER! The December futures contract rolls over to March, 2024 next Monday the 11th, and it might be 50 points higher then the SPX by then?
That means that the 4544 support zone could be 4594 on Monday, so then it could drop another 50 points to still hold the support on the ES but on the SPX it would be below 4500. That’s a sneaky move for sure but it could certainly play out just like that.
Look at this chart I posted on November 28th…
I can now say that the yellow path on that chart is what happened as we did finally get a higher high (4607 on 12/1) to complete ET5 and T1. The ABC down for T2 is likely what we are in now, and of course most C waves subdivide into 5 smaller waves, which is why I think the move up yesterday to 4596 ended SET 2, and all that is left is SET 3, 4 and 5 to finish Extra Tiny Wave C inside Tiny Wave 2.
The last 2-3 weeks of this chop has been super hard to figure out but now that more waves have completed I think I’m on the right track now. Give me those last 3 waves and we should have our final low to end Tiny Wave 2, which will setup the mega squeeze into the end of the year. I don’t know how it’s going to unfold with Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report out this morning (called Employment Situation now), CPI next Tuesday and finally the FOMC on Wednesday… but some how I do think we’ll finish T2 down within that time period and then we rally hard afterwards.
Possibly we drop today into Monday and then the CPI turns the market back up big time, and then the FED does a “pause” on top of the CPI to double the squeeze? Who knows for certain but I just don’t see anything bearish here in the charts. The market is still above the 200 day moving average and consolidating for another move up. We shall see.
Have a great weekend.
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