ES Morning Update August 19th 2024
Friday went a little high but not much overall. I posted an updated wave count on Friday and so far it’s still looking accurate. This week we should pullback early for a medium wave 4 of the large B up, which on the chart I projected it to around the 5400 area as that’s about the 50% retrace mark from the low to the high with this rally, and a move back to that area would be deep enough I think to get more bears onboard to squeeze again into the end of the month, and I don’t think there’s current any bears left.
They were squeezed out last week as we went higher then most expected, even me. I was only looking for 61.8% but we hit 78.6%, so that was more the expected. It’s also possible that we just chop sideways this week for the wave 4 pullback, which is fine too as bulls just need “time” to cool off the short term overbought charts.
The market never makes it easy so if they go sideways that will frustrate bulls and bears both, and it will form a handle for a “cup and handle” pattern, which opens the door for that last move up into Labor Day to make a higher high on the ES/SPX (most likely) but lower high on the NQ/NDX. One of these pattern will very likely play out… the sideways chop is the most frustrating, but don’t rule out a fast pullback to make the right shoulder of an “Inverted Head and Shoulders” pattern and suck in some more bears.
I do not know which one will happen but since the wave 2 pullback was a fast and scary drop I have to lean toward the sideways pattern for the wave 4 as wave 2′s and 4′s commonly flip in how they unfold. But if it repeats the fast pullback I’d expect it to happen between Monday to Wednesday of this week as that’s about all the bearish period that I see for now.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2024/08/19/es-morning-update-august-19th-2024/
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