With 45% Return From Buy on Pullback Portfolio #11 In The Books, BOP #12 and LifeVantage (LFVN) Fireside with CEO Take Center Stage [GeoWire Weekly No. 153]

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Highlights Reasoning behind closing BOP #11 Highlighting Important Clips from 9/12/2024 Skull Session with LFVN CEO Steven Fife

At the end of last week’s trading, on Friday, we decided to close Buy on Pullback (BOP) Portfolio #11 at a final closing return of 45.04% (average peak 67.71%).  The portfolio was launched on September 25, 2023, as part of our long-standing strategy that we began with BOP #1 in January of 2016, that intended to capitalize on mispriced opportunities in the market.

One of my favorite things about this portfolio is that it doesn’t just target microcap stocks. Although it’s heavily concentrated on nanocap and microcap stocks, we are looking to capitalize on investor confusion at any market cap. For example, one of the best performing stocks in BOP #11 was Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) (the leading US school bus manufacturer), which currently has a market cap of $1.6 billion, up from a market cap of around $624 million, when it was added to the portfolio.

Our portfolio management was not perfect, as indicated by BOP #11’s high return of 58.56%. However, we are still very happy with the outcome which generated an alpha of 11.55% over the NASDAQ and even more alpha over the other popular indexes.

The BOP approach focuses on stocks experiencing temporary pullbacks due to investor overreactions to news or temporary setbacks, a hallmark of a contrarian investment philosophy we began to stress more frequently since 2016. BOP #11 Initially included four stocks, and we  projected a strong return of 80.58% over a period of 4 months to a year​.

By November 2023, the portfolio had grown to include seven stocks. The performance had already begun to show a decent performance, with an average return of 10.85%, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF by 4.63%. At its November peak, the portfolio had already reached an average return of 21.99%, continuing the trend of prior successful Buy on Pullback portfolios​.

We decided to halt further additions after the seventh stock was included and began looking ahead to the next portfolio, BOP #12, which launched on August 6, 2024.

By June 2024, BOP #11 was delivering an average  return of 35.8%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the strategy. 

Despite not closing every stock at its high, we’re not unhappy with the 45.04% final return of the portfolio, as three of the stocks closed at near or above 100% gains.

Fireside Chat Skull Session with LFVN CEO

Speaking of 100% gains, as you know, Lifevantage Corporation (NASDAQ:LFVN) was one of the holdings of BOP #11. 

Its return at the time we closed BOP #11 was 115.04%.

And this past Thursday, we had a talk with Steven Fife, the company’s CEO, looking to gain a lot more color on his expectations for their GLP-1 weight management product. He explained how it worked in great detail and helped us to understand the dynamics of the still growing industry focused on weight loss.

Globally, the market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.6% from 2024 to 2033. This growth is driven by increasing health awareness, the rising prevalence of obesity, and the growing demand for personalized and medical weight loss solutions, including new prescription medications like GLP-1 receptor agonists​. LFVN is tapping into the natural approach to these agonists.

In the following clips, Steven Fife reflected on his leadership journey, shaping the company’s vision in a competitive market​. He discussed several key aspects of the company’s growth potential surrounding its new GLP-1 product. Fife provided insights into the integration of this product into their broader subscription-based model and its market potential. He emphasized the unique scientific approach LifeVantage takes, focusing on activation over traditional supplementation methods. 

Fife also shared plans to modernize MLM compensation structures to adapt to evolving sales dynamics while maintaining LifeVantage’s direct-to-consumer model and its MLM roots. 

Important Note

BOPs Are meant to be open for about four months to a year. So, we have to recognize that some of you might be following that strategy in the literal sense and that we have an obligation to attempt to stay within the discipline that we outlined.

By the same token, if we close a BOP or a BOP position, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we think that some of the stocks in the portfolio lack additional upside. At times, it’s more about closing the portfolio than closing the stock. 

Even though we closed BOP 11, which means that we closed all remaining opening positions in the portfolio, including Fitlife Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTLF), Intouch Insight Ltd. (OTC:INXSF) and LFVN, FTLF and INXSF still occupy other model portfolios at Geoinvesting.

As for LFVN, we for the time being will transfer it to the Select Coverage Universe Model Portfolio as we continue to assess the company’s ability to capitalize on a GLP-1 product launch, set to occur on October 10. For clarity purposes, we think that the stock is fairly to reasonably valued on the performance of its legacy business and that it will probably take some time for the company’s LV 360 restructuring to inflect. However, we do see substantial upside in the stock if GLP-1 materializes into a new growth avenue for the company. We’ll see how things go.

Steven Fife’s Career Journey and Leadership as CEO at LifeVantage

 

Continue to watch 7 more clips from the Fireside Chat we had with Steven.

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The post With 45% Return From Buy on Pullback Portfolio #11 In The Books, BOP #12 and LifeVantage (LFVN) Fireside with CEO Take Center Stage [GeoWire Weekly No. 153] appeared first on GeoInvesting.

Source: https://geoinvesting.com/with-45-return-from-buy-on-pullback-portfolio-11-in-the-books-bop-12-and-lifevantage-lfvn-fireside-with-ceo-take-center-stage/