Pound to US Dollar rate remains close to annual low as Brexit pressure continues

Cable (the Pound to US Dollar rate) has begun the week trading comfortably in the 1.28’s this morning as the Pound has begun the week positively after a steep sell-off last week. Sterling exchange rates are mostly in the green this morning as the fears of further Cabinet resignations have failed to materialise so far, although last week’s resignations were the main reasons for the volatile week of trading for the Pound.

Will a no-confidence vote hit the Pound to US Dollar rate this week?

A Brexit deal has been agreed in text between the UK and EU negotiators, although UK Prime Minister, Theresa May has struggled to find support for the plan, which appears to unimpressed both Brexiteers as well as Remainers with some key figures from within her Cabinet stepping down. Most notably Dominic Raab, who until last Thursday was Brexit Secretary after being brought in to replace the previous Secretary, David Davis.

The resignations have lead markets to be weary of a no-confidence vote as May battles for support. I personally think that if May’s position is challenged and the 48 letters of ‘no-confidence’ are reached, we could see another sharp sell-off of the Pound’s value owing to the uncertainty this would case.

This matter is likely to be the biggest potential market mover of the week although there are some key data releases to be aware of too.

Pound to US Dollar rate forecast: Economic data this week

Last week over in the US inflation figures along with retail sales data beat expectations which continued to imply the US economy is continuing to grow. The strong data out of the US along with Brexit uncertainty is why the Pound to US Dollar rate remains towards the lowest levels of the past 52 weeks.

One of the main releases this week stateside will be Wednesday’s Core Durable Goods Orders which are released at 1.30pm. I expect it to be watched closely as this figure has disappointed on the previous 5 releases.

Tomorrow morning could also be busy for GBP exchange rates as there will be an Inflation Report Hearing at 10:00am and at the same time the Governor of the Bank of England will be speaking. Those following the Pound’s value should pay close attention to this time in case of major market movements. If you wish to be updated in the event of market spikes, do feel free to register your interest with me.

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