Greece’s Renewed Relations With Russia Will Be Tested by Biden

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst

On March 25, Greece will celebrate 200-years since the beginning of the Greek War of Independence that broke 400 years of Ottoman rule. The success of the Greek Revolt set in motion the eventual collapse of the Ottoman Empire just a century later.

Greece joined NATO in 1952 after Nazi collaborators were put in power by the British and Americans after World War II. Despite being a NATO member, it did not become a reason for hostilities between Athens and Moscow after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. In fact, relations would prove to be cordial right up until the troika – the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – imposed brutal austerity measures against Greece in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Greek leaders, under control of European and international financial institutions, became subservient to the foreign policies of Washington and Brussels, and Greece’s relationship with non-European Union/NATO countries went on the decline.

In early July 2018, the then-ruling SYRIZA government expelled two Russian diplomats and barred another two after accusing them of interfering in Greece’s internal affairs – without providing evidence.

However, with the financial crisis over and Turkey becoming more emboldened to act unilaterally at the expense of Greece’s security and sovereignty, Athens is becoming more assertive in pursuing its own interests. Athens is building relations with non-NATO countries as the Atlantic bloc is disinterested in stopping Turkey’s endless hostilities against Greece.

The ruling New Democracy government emphasizes that Moscow is not an adversary and has made steps to mend relations. Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow in November 2019. Dendias heralded the meeting as a “new chapter” in Greek-Russian relations and said it was to “promote our bilateral ties on a wide range of issues based on existing conditions […] and foster closer cooperation and mutual understanding of international and regional issues.”

Lavrov then visited Athens in October 2020 and praised the historical relationship between Greece and Russia. He highlighted that it was “gratifying that your people remember Russia’s role in the Greek struggle for independence and its development as a sovereign state.”

Ankara made a casus belli in 1995 to deter Greece from extending its territorial waters in the Aegean to 12 nautical miles (currently at six). Lavrov highlighted on his trip to Athens that the UN Charter Law of the Sea “says in Article 3 that every State has the right to establish the breadth of its territorial sea up to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles” and that Turkey’s dispute “should be solved based on international law.”

Turkey is only one of 15 countries in the whole world to not sign or ratify the Charter.

On Tuesday, Dendias on Twitter said:

“I would like to note as extremely important, perhaps on the verge of history, the position of the Russian Foreign Minister during his visit to Athens, when he clearly clarified his country’s position regarding the sovereignty of our country.”

Dendias made no mention of the U.S. or the EU. This does not mean that Athens is separating from Washington, in fact the opposite is true as Greek-American military relations are deepening.

However, Athens is now readjusting its foreign policy towards the East rather than just the West.

Despite improving relations with Moscow, Athens still does not veto the EU’s biyearly sanctions vote against Russia over its reunification with Crimea. Although Athens is building an independent foreign policy that has seen it sign a historic defense pact with the UAE, restore relations with Syria, and boost military ties with India, it still does not have full sovereignty to oppose the EU and fears retaliation if it vetoes any sanctions. Moscow likely understands this and has not made it a precondition for improving relations.

Although Greece has the ambition to balance its relationship with Washington and Moscow, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will attempt to push Athens away from Moscow. This will be the first major test for Greece’s new Eastern policy. Athens is unlikely to capitulate as Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the Greek Revolution’s bicentenary celebrations on March 25 and will use this historic event to enhance relations with Moscow.

Athens is taking a mature approach in rebuilding relations with Moscow and could consider involving Russia to help resolve its issues with Turkey. This is reflected by Dendias singling out Russia’s support for Greece’s territorial rights in the Aegean against Turkey’s revisionism. This does not mean that Moscow will downgrade its relationship with Ankara for the sake of Greece, but it could mean the involvement of Russia as NATO and the EU are completely disinterested.

In addition to geopolitical and security concerns, it is likely that there will be a flurry of economic and cultural exchanges between the two countries this year, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic is overcome. However, this depends on whether Athens chooses to defend its newfound diplomatic confidence in the likelihood that Biden will demand Greece to retract its relationship with Moscow, or whether Greek decisionmakers will regress to old formulas that served NATO-EU interests at the expense of Greek interests.

Source: InfoBrics