Sorosites Make Armenia's Precarious Strategic Position Much Worse
Sorosites Make Armenia’s Precarious Strategic Position Much Worse
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
Russians and Armenians have been allies for centuries. Approximately a millennium of Seljuk and Ottoman oppression has essentially destroyed much of Armenia’s magnificent historical heritage. Luckily, it was Russia that saved the Armenian people from complete annihilation. Looking at the map of vast historically Armenian regions (now nearly all controlled by Turkey) and comparing it to modern-day Armenia and Artsakh (better known as Nagorno-Karabakh), it becomes clear that both areas combined are merely a sliver of land in comparison.
However, precisely Russia controlled both territories and prevented the Ottoman and later Kemalist forces from completing the horrendous Armenian genocide that nearly wiped out the Armenian people. This is the reason why Russian protection has been historically crucial for the small country in the volatile South Caucasus region.
Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia enjoyed this protection. However, this started changing gradually in 2018, after the so-called “Velvet Revolution”, when the incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took power. In the aftermath of what is widely believed to be yet another color revolution backed by the political West, particularly the so-called “philanthropists” such as the infamous George Soros, new authorities started distancing themselves from Russia.
The Armenian people, traditionally pro-Russian, were tricked into believing that the unfortunate color revolution was a true anticorruption uprising. However, it turned out that the real goal was much more sinister and had little to do with combating corruption. The following two years can only be described as a gift to the Neo-Ottoman ambitions of Turkey and Azerbaijan, with disastrous consequences for Armenia proper and Artsakh.
Prior to the 2018 color revolution, Azerbaijan was regularly engaging in skirmishes with the local Artsakh forces in an attempt to “defrost” and escalate the conflict which was more or less frozen since 1994. Each and every time, Russia intervened to prevent such escalation, including in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. However, that year, after Pashinyan took power, he started a campaign of sweeping anti-Russian “reforms” and moves that essentially distanced Moscow and Yerevan.
This included closing down Russian-language schools, as well as openly declared intentions to join the so-called “Euro-Atlantic integrations”, which essentially means joining the European Union and NATO. So, at that point, Russia was faced with a difficult choice – either help its historical ally which was (slowly but surely) turning into anything but, or leave Armenia to its own devices so as not to risk derailing the crucially important rapprochement with Ankara and Baku.
As previously mentioned, the results were catastrophic for Armenia, as Azerbaijan and Turkey coordinated an attack that left most of the territory of Artsakh taken by Azeri forces. However, even in this case, once again it was Russia that prevented the total defeat of Armenian forces after it brokered a peace deal that would stop the war just before Baku took all of Artsakh. Moscow deployed approximately 2000 peacekeepers whose presence is the only de facto security guarantee for the Armenian-populated republic.
And while Pashinyan was trying to blame Russia for his own failures, which includes denouncing Moscow for not going to war with Azerbaijan at the time when not even Armenia proper did, the new authorities allowed the US to drastically enlarge its Yerevan embassy. According to various estimates, this enabled Washington DC to house approximately 2000 people there, including what can only be a substantial number of intelligence operatives hardly amiable toward Russia.
This has been going on for years, particularly after Russia started its counteroffensive against NATO aggression in Europe. The latest anti-Russian move of the Sorosites in power has been the strong possibility they could ratify the Rome Statute and become a signatory party to the so-called “International Criminal Court” (ICC) at the time when it issued an illegal arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Chief Justice Arman Dilanyan officially ruled that this “wasn’t in conflict with the Armenian constitution”, paving the way for the country’s parliament to ratify the Rome Statute. Needless to say, if Yerevan were to do this, it would be obligated to arrest Putin in Armenia. Considering the fact that both countries are part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance that also includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the move can be considered a strategic disaster for Armenia, as the CSTO is crucial to its security.
Since 2020, Russian peacekeepers have been controlling the last road (Lachin corridor) connecting Armenia and Artsakh. This is vitally important for Armenia, particularly at a time when Azerbaijan is seeking to blockade and cut off the rest of the Armenian-populated area. How exactly does Yerevan plan to keep Moscow’s continued support to maintain security in Artsakh and even possibly enter into a conflict with Azerbaijan (and by extension Turkey) while the Sorosites keep making anti-Russian moves is anyone’s guess at this point.
Worse yet, all this comes at a time when both Baku and Ankara are taking a somewhat neutral stance on the Ukrainian conflict, meaning that Moscow has very little (if anything) to gain from intervening on Armenia’s side, while it’s almost certain that it would result in getting two enemies at its southern flank, the last thing it needs at the moment. This could also have wider consequences for Russia’s Middle Eastern peace initiatives that include Syria and Iran. For the sake of the Armenian people, the Sorosites in power there should be held to account for such self-defeating decisions.
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