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Precious Metals and the Dollar’s Next Big Move

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There is a potentially big setup in precious metals sector along with the dollar which looks like its about to unfold. Since mid-October of last year gold started to show signs of distribution selling. Only a month later in November silver started warning us that some big players were taking some profits off the table also. Distribution selling is easy to spot on the charts. In short you will see heavy volume selling accompanied with strong moves to the downside.

Now if we look at the US Dollar chart we see the exact opposite price action. We see sharp rallies during October and November of last year. It’s normal to say that gold and silver move inverse to the Dollar so this price action makes perfect sense.

The interesting thing with the US Dollar is that in Nov-December it rallied breaking through a key resistance level and has been consolidating above support ever since. If this bullish pattern (bull flag) plays out, then it’s just a matter of time before the dollar makes another strong rally upwards, which will put downward pressure on stocks and commodities.

Take a look at the charts below…

US Dollar Daily Chart
The 50 period moving average has provided key support/resistance levels for the previous trends and if it holds true going forward then we are not far from another rally in the dollar.

Gold Futures Daily Chart
Gold moves inverse to the dollar so if we get a higher dollar then look for gold to have a stair step pattern lower.

Silver Futures Daily Chart
Silver looks about ready to do the same thing as gold.

Precious Metals and Dollar Trading Conclusion:
In short, we could see a major shift in momentum from up to down in both precious metals and the equities market. Keep in mind the market has a way of dragging out patterns/moves so while the chart looks bearish and I think a reversal is near, things could just chop around for another month or so before a definitive breakout is made. Choppy market conditions are great for trading options but no short term trend traders like myself. This is why you don’t want to anticipate moves (pick a top). Currently I am neutral on metals and the dollar waiting for a setup which must have clear risk/reward characteristics.

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Chris Vermeulen

Read more at The Gold and Oil Guy


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    • Richard William Posner

      Hocus Pocus, smoke and mirrors, faith-based fallacies designed and perpetuated to facilitate the continuing redistribution of wealth ever upward into the fewest possible hands.
      Participants in the “financial industry”, an oxymoron if there ever was one, are a parasitic infestation within the human species.
      “It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30 million in bonds and not $30 million in currency. Both are promises to pay, but one fattens the usurers and the other helps the people. If the currency issued by the Government was no good, then the bonds would be no good either. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to increase the national wealth, must go into debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious value of gold.”
      Thomas Edison
      “Was it ever Feasible to Use Gold for Money?
      Aside from going counter to the true nature of money as an abstract legal power, there is a very practical matter that supporters of Gold money can’t address: There is never enough supply of gold sufficient for such a money system. The Gold supply has not kept pace with the growth of population and commerce. This periodically increased the real value of gold.
      Money systems usually solved this problem by cheating – pretending to be operating a gold based system but really mixing private bank paper into the money supply, pretending it was convertible; leveraging the amount of gold in the system through fractional reserves of one type or another. Because this bestowed great power and unearned wealth onto bankers, there has never been a shortage of apologists for such mixed systems – we call them economists!”
      Stephen Zarlenga, Director, The American Monetary Institute
      Gold is not vital to human existence; it has, in fact, relatively few practical uses. Yet its chief virtues—its unusual density and malleability along with its imperishable shine—have made it one of the world’s most coveted commodities, a transcendent symbol of beauty, wealth, and immortality. From pharaohs (who insisted on being buried in what they called the “flesh of the gods”) to the forty-niners (whose mad rush for the mother lode built the American West) to the financiers (who, following Sir Isaac Newton’s advice, made it the bedrock of the global economy): Nearly every society through the ages has invested gold with an almost mythological power.
      Humankind’s feverish attachment to gold shouldn’t have survived the modern world. Few cultures still believe that gold can give eternal life, and every country in the world—the United States was last, in 1971—has done away with the gold standard, which John Maynard Keynes famously derided as “a barbarous relic.” http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/01/gold/larmer-text/1

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