Professor Lee Hannah Discusses How US Midterm Elections Affect Cannabis Industry

Wright State University Political Scientist Dr. Lee Hannah shares his expectations for the US midterm elections. Dr. Hannah believes the elections will be positive for the cannabis industry as four more states will potentially liberalize cannabis laws. He notes the increasing pressure for federal de-prohibition from a growing number of US states as well as the nation’s neighbours, Canada and Mexico, who will no longer have the same enforcement efforts at the federal level. Dr. Hannah points to republican hardliners like Jeff Sessions as possible stumbling blocks to federal legalization but suggests the support of high-profile party members like John Boehner and framing cannabis as a states’ rights issue might sway more moderate republicans. Dr. Hannah also indicates that President Trump could decriminalize cannabis by executive order if he decides to seize on the issue as a matter of national economic interest.

Transcript:

James West:   Hey, welcome back. My next guest is Dr. Lee Hannah. He’s the assistant professor of Political Science at Wright State University. Dr. Hannah, welcome to our show.

Lee Hannah:   Thanks so much for having me, James.

James West:   So Lee, it’s great to be talking to you on this day – this is the day of the midterm elections. What is happening in the United States? I mean, there’s an expectation that the Senate will flip, but the House will not?

Lee Hannah:   Well, the expectation is that the House will likely flip to Democratic control, and the Republicans, who have a two-seat majority in the Senate, are likely to hold if not gain a seat.

James West:   Okay. So then, how is that expected to impact the path towards legalization of cannabis, which is one of the bigger hot button issues emerging now?

Lee Hannah:   Sure, yes. So we have the potential of four more states liberalizing their cannabis laws, either with medical marijuana or with recreational marijuana. Three of those are polling pretty strongly, and along with that, you have this kind of increasing pressure. You know, Mexico just had a court ruling that came down on the 1^st that effectively legalizes some form of recreational there; of course, Canada has passed their own laws. And so now we’re living in a country with the majority of our states with some type of liberal or some type of legal access to marijuana, more medically than recreationally, but that’s picking up as well. And at the same time, you have pressure from both of our neighbours now, to where they’re not going to have kind of the same, I guess, enforcement efforts that we still do, at least at the Federal level, here.

James West:   So then at the Federal level, it seems that the President is – well, its unclear as to what his real sentiment is towards legalization, but certainly some people around him are hardliners against legalizations. Of course, I’m referring to Jeff Sessions. What kind of impediment to Federal de-prohibition is the immediate circle of Donald Trump likely to impart on the process?

Lee Hannah:   Yeah, that’s a great question. I mean, there’s a lot of talk that, you know, Jeff Sessions could potentially be on his way out, and you know, to the extent that Trump bring sin someone that has a different point of view is hard to know at this point.  And I think a lot, will, you know, come from this election. I mean, you know, the truth is, if they really get take a hit tonight, especially if there’s a bigger blue wave than maybe we anticipate, maybe there is some room for a policy win.

I mean, I think one thing we’ve seen from Donald Trump is, he’s got some very strong ideological views bout immigration and a handful of other – trade, but when it comes to some of these social issues, he might be more malleable than some previous presidents. So perhaps some pressure could build, and then there’s also that appealing. You know, a lot of Republicans in the US like to talk about States’ Rights, and you know, the truth is, marijuana is one of the best examples of a state right. But the truth is, the conflict between the state and the Federal position right now makes it, you know, really challenging. And so there could be some Republicans that philosophically would be more open to kind of moving on marijuana and dropping some of the Federal restrictions that make it so hard to advance.

James West:   One of the aspects of President Trump’s administration, and the president himself, is that he’s always very quick and eager to seize upon what he views as opportunities of national economic interest. And so I wonder, and not fully understanding the US political process obviously as I do the Canadian, but how likely is it that he could just, if somebody whispered in his ear, Look, Donald: you legalize this, you’re creating a multi-billion-dollar opportunity in the United States and you’ll divert the attention away from the many criticisms you’re suffering now, how likely is it that he could actually just de-prohibit cannabis by executive order? Is that something that’s feasible?

Lee Hannah:   You know, as far as I understand, he actually could, you know, presumably as the President he does have quite a bit of power in that realm. On the one hand, like you said, the financial argument could win out; marijuana legalization in different forms polls better than it did five, ten years ago for a number of reasons. I guess the push-back would be that, you know, he does have a core constituency of religious conservatives, which is kind of the last group to move on this issue.

So he certainly would face some pressure and some blowback from that direction. But you’re not wrong in saying that, given his lack of predictability, given the fact that he likes wins, and this would be more bipartisan than some other things that maybe he’s gone for, perhaps after this election, you know, maybe he would be a bit more open-minded, at least to take some –  maybe not to go full-on recreational, but to at least change some Federal positions so states can continue to do what they’re doing with less interference.

James West:   Mm-hmm. John Boehner, former Speaker of the House, penned an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times this weekend wherein he unequivocally came down on the side of cannabis de-prohibition at the Federal level, and there’s been certain business leaders in the cannabis space also agitating. How influential is John Boehner in this capacity as former Speaker of the House?

Lee Hannah:   Yeah, I think that certainly someone like him does send a stronger signal, given that he was such a strong Republican leader, and Republicans tend to have the more conservative position on this. And you know, certainly, you know, legislators like Earl Blumenauer and Dana Rohrabacher, if he gets re-elected, they are influential, as well as Senator Cory Gardner and Elizabeth Warren, who have some policies. So it does seem like there are some incremental ways to move forward that could benefit a lot of people, you know, either economic actors or people in the medical side of things who are very interested in this.

I know I was recently in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, talking with someone who worked on medical marijuana in Pennsylvania, and their biggest problem has been the fact that we have FDA regulations that keep marijuana on par with kind of the worst of the worst drugs with no medical value. And so there’s just so many challenges, given our federal structure, to do research, or to deal with any type of cross-state trade or anything like that.

And so yeah, I think you’re right. I think John Boehner, who actually lives just a little north of me, his move as kind of an activist in this area certainly I think helps take on steam, because I think, my guess is a lot of Republicans privately don’t care too much; this is probably not a high priority; but publicly there’s still some pressure or expectations that they have a prohibitionist position. But I think that’s slowly changing.

James West:   All right, Dr. Lee Hannah, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wright State University, thank you very much. We’ll come back to you in due course and get an update on the political situation there.

Lee Hannah:   Please do. This was fun. Thanks so much, James.

James West:   Thank you. Bye for now.

Lee Hannah:   All right, take care.

Original article: Professor Lee Hannah Discusses How US Midterm Elections Affect Cannabis Industry

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