Study Estimates COVID-19 May Have Infected Over 9,000 in U.S

Based on all these assumptions and methods, the investigators estimated the total number of people in the U.S. infected with coronavirus as of March 1 to be between 1,043 and 9,484. The first figure assumed current preventive procedures—such as quarantines and screening international travelers at airports—had reduced as much as 25% of the transmissibility in unidentified cases. The second figure assumed no intervention procedures had been undertaken to reduce the transmissibility.

The disparity between the lowest and highest estimates has important implications for controlling the COVID-19 epidemic, said Dermot P. McGovern, MD, PhD, professor of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at Cedars-Sinai and senior author of the new study.

“Our model suggests that even moderately effective population interventions to reduce transmission can have a profound impact on the scale of the epidemic,” McGovern explained. “This finding supports the role of public health interventions in controlling this disease.”

But slowing transmission is not an easy task, given that most COVID-19 cases appear to be mild or even asymptomatic, the researchers noted, which can make it difficult to identify infected individuals who may be spreading the virus.

Despite these obstacles, McGovern said, it may still be possible to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak through steps already suggested by public health experts.These include promoting social distancing and personal hygiene and restricting large-scale gatherings for occasions such as sporting events.

Additionally, performing mass screening for infected individuals, while expensive and logistically challenging, also would potentially help to control the epidemic, said McGovern, who also is director of Translational Research in the Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute at Cedars-Sinai.

Dalin Li, PhD, the new study’s first author and co-corresponding author with McGovern, said the research team is releasing the just-completed study data online before the full study has been accepted in a journal due to the urgency of the COVID-19 outbreak.

“We are making the results public before peer review as it will be important for timely and informed public health decision-making. We are also making the model available to the research community so that others can build upon it.” said Li, a research scientist in the Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute.

The other co-authors of the study were Jonathan Braun, MD, PhD, professor of Medicine, and research operations associate Gregory Botwin from the Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute at Cedars-Sinai; and Jun Lv, Weihua Cao and Liming Li, all from Peking University Health Science Center in Beijing.

Funding: Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institutes of Health, the Helmsley Charitable Trust and the F. Widjaja Foundation.

Contacts and sources:
Jane Engle