According to UK statistics, the delta variant will extend your life and the second vaccine dose will triple your chances of dying

The Ostrich Head

As the world continues to cower in fear at the deadly COVID Wuhan China Coronavirus world ending pandemic, Public Health England just published a report showing that the 28 day mortality rate for the 92,029 diagnosed with the delta variant had a 0.13% fatality rate. That’s the headline for most articles. however, a quick analysis of the statistics brings home two shocking facts:

1. The delta variant will extend your life if you are under 50 according to the statistics

The mortality rate (those who died within 28 days of a positive test) for those under 50 was 0.010% (8 of 82,458).

However, the average annual mortality rate for those aged 20-49 is 0.18%, given a normal mortality rate of 0.014% for every 28 days.

In other words, we would expect 11 or 12 deaths from the 82,458 in any given 28 day period. But getting the delta variant appears to have REDUCED their normal mortality rate by about a third.

Statistically, this isn’t very solid, so you couldn’t say that getting COVID definitely extends your life. Similarly, you DEFINITELY couldn’t determine from these statistics that COVID is in any way a dangerous virus nor that vaccines are needed for under 50s.

Moreover, it appears that getting vaccinated doesn’t make much difference:

Source: UK government

This is statistically meaningless and totally expected: vaccinating people who aren’t going to die is absolutely pointless.

2. The second vaccine dose will triple your chances of dying if you are over 50

The most shocking thing here is that the second dose of vaccine seems to triple the mortality rate from the first dose for the over 50s. Here are the numbers as as reported:

Source: UK government

For comparison, the fatality rate for those not vaccinated was 3.8%, so it seems that a) the vaccine is effective in reducing mortality by 63%; and b) the second dose is a waste of money and triples your chances of dying from COVID.

Key takeaways:

1. Getting the delta variant if you are under 50 potentially extends your life, and definitely doesn’t shorten it
2. Getting the second dose of the vaccine looks like a very bad idea

The Ostrich Head