Killing the Virus Myth Stone Dead

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MARK TWAIN once remarked, ‘A lie will travel the world while the truth is pulling its boots on.’ Many readers identify with this self-evident truth. Others soak up media hype about the COVID-19 virus. The truth is that in its capacity to kill, SARS-CoV-2-19 is an extraordinarily weak virus.

The fatality rates being thrown around are chaotic, 8% for Italy, 3.4% from the World Health Organisation (WHO), 2% from the early days for China; all are irrational. They’re accurate only that they represent the ratio between recorded instances of infection and fatalities where the infection was present. They are absolutely not the fatality rate of either the SARS-CoV-2-19 infection or even of the COVID-19 disease.

Data from Italy suggests the average age of fatalities is 79.5 years, where Italian life expectancy is 82.5 years. Of 2500 + victims, only 17 were under 50. Also, 99 per cent of all fatalities had pre-existing conditions. Italian health authorities were rather liberal in their inclusion of pre-existing conditions counting even often benign conditions like high blood pressure.

In terms of age longevity, Spain is second only to Japan. It is hardly rocket science; if the virus threatens mostly the elderly and infirm, such countries as Spain and Italy are going to post the highest number of deaths.

But there is something else you have to consider: 48.5 per cent of those died already had 3 or more illnesses and 25.6 per cent had at least two.

So then, how is it that a viral disease that according to practical data collected by Italian health authorities has the capacity to kill only the most enfeebled of us is stacking up a kill rate of 2, 3.4 or 8 per cent?

In fact, this data indicates that SARS-CoV-2-19 is very similar to other coronaviruses in that it represents next to no risk to a healthy individual, but can stack up a body count when it encounters a population that is particularly frail.

Even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses known for decades can have fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.

In fact, such mild coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalised in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.

These mild coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.

The actual infection death rate is almost certainly below 1%, possibly as low as 0.05% (a death rate of 1 in 2000).

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the cruise liner Diamond Princess and its quarantined passengers. The case fatality rate was 1.0%, but passengers on such cruise liners are mostly in their dotage.

Projecting the cruise liner’s mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate ~ among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data, there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew, the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).

Of course, even if it is no more lethal than some of the other coronaviruses that we make zero fuss about SARS-CoV-2 could still be a threat if it was far more contagious.

Sure the figures on its spread that media is serving daily look impressive when they’re served in a vacuum and when that is everything anyone talks about and looks at. But what is the context? How would those numbers look like served side-by-side with numbers on your run-of-the-mill influenza pandemic that we’re hit with each winter and which are hardly media mentioned? 

And who is to say this spread started only just now? Seeing just how mild and non-lethal the SARS-CoV-2 is, is it possible it was already present but we just didn’t notice it, and what we’re following right now isn’t so much its spread, but rather its discovery, detection, and mapping?

After all, it’s not as if coronaviruses had not been killing high numbers of frail people all along: In the U.S., for example, so far this season 1,073,976 specimens have been tested and 222,552 (20.7%) have tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illnesses is between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths. STORY CREDITS: Marko Marjanović, Russian Insider. Editing Michael Walsh. Like this story? Share it with others.

MICHAEL WALSH is an award-winning global journalist, broadcaster and author of 64 book titles with 36 years’ experience.

MICHAEL WALSH is a journalist, broadcaster and the author of RISE OF THE SUN WEEL, EUROPE ARISE,  TROTSKY’S WHITE NEGROES, MEGACAUST,  DEATH OF A CITY, WITNESS TO HISTORY, THE BUSINESS BOOSTER , THE FIFTH COLUMN VOLUME I and II, FOR THOSE WHO CANNOT SPEAK, IMMORTAL BELOVED, THE ALL LIES INVASION, INSPIRE A NATION Volume I, INSPIRE A NATION Volume II , SLAUGHTER OF A DYNASTY , REICH AND WRONG,  THE RED BRIGANDS, RANSACKING THE REICH ,    SCULPTURES OF THE THIRD RIECH: ARNO BREKER AND REICH SCULPTORS  , SCULPTURES OF THE THIRD RIECH:  JOSEF THORAK AND REICH SCULPTORS .   and The Exiled Duke Romanov Who Turned Desert Into Paradise  and other book titles. These illustrated best-selling books are essential for the libraries of informed readers.

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