Weekly Commentary: Did Nasrallah give Israel a window of opportunity to attack?

Weekly Commentary: Did Nasrallah give Israel a window of opportunity to
attack?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 February 2022

“We have the capabilities to transfer missiles that we posses in the
thousands into precision-guided missiles.”
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah February 16, 2022

Taken at face value this means that today Hezbollah does not have thousands
of precision guided missiles.

Yes, they have hundreds of thousands of rockets which can carpet bomb Israel
with a statistical possibility of hitting strategic targets. And while the
IAF has practiced decimating the longer range rockets which are considerably
harder to hide and/or quickly move, we recognize that Hezbollah will manage
to launch some of them before they are destroyed.

So if Nasrallah is telling the truth we face the “cost” of some
“statistical” bombing damage if we opt to act against Hezbollah today.

And if Nasrallah is telling the truth then postponing action means that the
guided missiles Hezbollah manages to launch in a future clash won’t cause
“statistical” bombing damage but instead magnitudes greater damage as they
strike strategic targets.

It certainly sounds as if Nasrallah gave Israel a window of opportunity to
attack at significantly lower risk of severe bombing damage.
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