Goldman Sachs predicts Tesla (TSLA) revenue growth after raising EV demand outlook

Goldman Sachs believes Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is well-positioned for revenue growth and margin expansion after raising its EV demand outlook. 

On Wednesday, the European Commission announced its plans to end the sale of polluting vehicles by 2035. Following the EU’s proposal to end the sale of ICE and hybrid cars by 2035, Goldman Sachs released a research note forecasting a 20% rise in EV sales for the next 20 years. The investment bank expects to see a 56% rise in EV sales ratio by 2040, up from 48% previously. 

“We highlight Tesla, BYD, VW, and Toyota as companies we expect to capitalize on this electrification mega trend,” noted Goldman Sachs. 

Besides Europe, Goldman Sachs also raised its EV outlook for China, given its strong new energy vehicle sales and the spread of low-priced lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. With EVs and fuel cell electric vehicle sales expected to rise, the investment bank forecasts global EV sales to rise from 2 million vehicles in 2020 to 32 million by 2030 and 74 million by 2040. 

Tesla seems well-positioned to capitalize on the rise of EV sales because of its current position as a leader in the EV industry. Also, Tesla has built and is building solid foundations in Europe and China. 

Tesla Giga Shanghai already has a strong foothold in China, only two years after operations started at the factory. Tesla has managed to localize its supply chain to lower operating costs while delivering quality vehicles. Tesla will undoubtedly try to accomplish the same feats in Germany with Giga Berlin. 

Goldman Sachs believes the Tesla Model Y could be a key product in Tesla’s revenue growth and margin expansion because of the growing SUV segment and the electric crossover’s relatively low cost structure but higher price. Elon Musk stated the Model Y could be the best-selling vehicle in any category by at least 2022. Overall, the investment bank set a 12-month target of $860 for Tesla.

Disclaimer: I own TSLA stock. 

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