Unemployment rate 11.4 percent based on 2008 labor force participation, Slowing in hiring and economy, Large number of workers struggle for full time work, U-6 number 13.8 percent
“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013
“Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report….The March report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised downward to 131,000 jobs.”...ADP May 1, 2013
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″
I watched the financial markets yesterday salivate over the perceived employment picture. Once again, mostly ignoring the data.
From Market Watch June 7, 2013.
“• “The May uptick notwithstanding, the gradual downward trend in the headline jobless rate belies the magnitude of the issue. A much larger number of workers are still struggling to find full-time employment, settling on part-time work to make ends meet. That broader measure of joblessness (the so-called U-6 number) ticked fractionally lower, but remains elevated at 13.8%.” — Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
• “The report is inconclusive in its implications for monetary policy. We think the slowing in hiring and in the economy will concern everyone on the FOMC and the pace of jobs gains falls short of the 200k mark mentioned by some of the core members of the Committee. However, there will still be those for whom this is enough progress to step down the pace of purchases, and they are likely to continue to voice disparate views, adding volatility to markets and keeping uncertainty about policy high.” — Julia Coronado, BNP Paribas.
• “Immediate reaction: OK, but not overwhelming report. Going in the right direction, but not strongly. Report not strong enough to end QE3, Fed stays the course.” — Douglas Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum, over Twitter.
• “11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” — James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, over Twitter”
“Why battle lines are drawn over the labor force participation rate”
“In discussions about this morning’s May unemployment report, the labor force participation rate will continue to get a lot of attention.
“The labor force participation rate is a way to measure when workers leave the workforce. The rate has been declining since 2000. It inched higher to 63.4% in May from 63.3% in April.
Experts say it has become a central issue simply because the drop defies easy explanation.
Some of the decline is demographics. As the Baby Boomers age, they participate less in the workforce. But other factors are at play. Workers under the age 25 are working less. And then there is a decline in participation among men of prime working age, particularly among minorities.
Economists have been fiercely debating the trend. Will it continue, and what are the reasons behind the drop?”
“what are the reasons behind the drop?”
Obama, et al.
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