Geopolitic India

Geopolitic India

By Brig Nadir Mir

Introduction

Modi’s Hinduvta, old Indian dream of Akhand Bharat and recent obsession of Global India have all combined. The result is a new India, characterized by false over confidence, a grandiose (but unrealistic) global vision and unbridled regional hegemonistic ambitions. All this fusion by a Hindu religious – military – industrial – intelligentia complex, which equates Delhi with Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Tokyo. India’s self aggrandizement knows no bounds!

Buoyed by its rocket’s reach to Mars, the Indian leadership fancy themselves as a rising super power. Hopeful of a multi polar world in future, India seeks to dominate a ‘Greater South Asia’ zone of influence, even while contesting with the other great powers across the globe. For all these neo imperialist dreams to come true, the destruction of the first obstacle to India’s rise is paramount – Pakistan.

Yet for all its fault lines, post 9/11 suffering, political disarray and economic deprivation, the resilient nation of 200 million Pakistanis has stood steadfast like a rock. Sandwiched between US and NATO occupied Afghanistan and belligerent India, Pakistan has in fact proved to be an Interposing State.

Brave Pakistani nation spearheaded by its gallant army and is led by bold and brilliant Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif. After a protracted struggle of 13 years, US and NATO are withdrawing from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s professionally launched military operation Zarb-e- Azb is securing its western frontiers and aimed at internal peace and tranquility.

Unnerved by US withdrawal from Afghanistan, ISIS and other Islamic militant forces are reportedly planning attacks on India, even as Kashmir is boiling again. The heroic Kashmiris refused Indian aid despite super destructive floods. Militancy in Kashmir and Khalistan is likely to start again as Kashmir needs to join Pakistan and Khalistan seeks independence from the Indian Political Union. The stage managed and much trumpeted Modi’s visit in USA was also significant by the joint Kashmir – Khalistan protesters in USA against Indian tyranny and oppression.

Soon after Modi’s brief sojourn from across the Atlantic, Indian Army unleashed its fire power on innocent Pakistani civilians across the LOC and working boundary. The Indian guns only fall silent when Pakistani Forces retaliate in kind. China’s complaint of a new Indian road construction in disputed border region has been brushed aside. Delhi claims, it is too powerful to be warned by China. Recently, the Modi Regime in a huddle with top Indian military brass is upgrading its ‘Two Front War Plans’. Preparations for these two fronts and green light for further destabilizing Baluchistan and retarding Gwadar project had been given. And so it appears!

Unfortunately some among Pakistan’s political elite have not fully grasped the existential threat posed to Pakistan by India and now taken to the next level. It would be a revelation and instructive to fathom the real intent of the powers that be in Delhi.

Pankaj Mishra writes in New York Times in his article, ‘Modi’s Idea of India’,

‘Narendra Modi, India’s new Prime Minister and main ideologue of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party, is stroking old Hindu rage and shame over what he calls more than a thousand years of slavery under Muslim and British rule. Earlier this month, while India and Pakistan were engaging in their heaviest fighting in over a decade, Mr. Modi claimed that the “enemy” was now “screaming.”. . . . . . . .  . . . . .  . . . . . . . .  . . .  . . . .  . . . . . . . .  . celebrating the tests in speeches in the late 1990s, including one entitled “EK Aur Mahahharata (One More Mahabharata) . . . . . . . . . . . . . One can only hope that India’s democratic institutions are strong enough to constrain yet another wounded elite from breaking out for geopolitical and military manhood.”

The Chinese leadership in their great wisdom should be realizing that India is not peace seeking but plans on war waging! The Pakistani political elite should also realize that Pakistan does not need an ‘India Policy’ but Islamabad does need an ‘Anti India Policy’!!

India and Geopolitics

‘India is contained geologically by the Chinese – Pakistani coalition’.

(From the book, ‘Grand Chess board’ by Zbigniew Brzezinski)

This was conventional wisdom. But now India faces a three front scenario.

‘The reality is that India will face three front scenario, if it continues on its present course. India’s internal, militant, centrifugal, independence, separatist movements are gathering momentum. Its hostility with Pakistan and Cold War with China will further aggravate its internal discord’.

                                                                    (From the book, Geopolitik Pakistan by Nadir Mir)

India Faces Three Fronts

China, the Rising Giant in the north, India’s explosive internal front in centre and independent Pakistan in the west. Still even as India is likely to be overstretched on three fronts, Delhi’s neurotic obsession is hostility to Pakistan.

India’s think tanks, strategic intelligence community have different options for China’s growing power or India’s own restive, conflicting, centrifugal forces within India.

For Pakistan there is only one option – a policy of veiled confrontation.  Out of this Indian policy of confrontation, flows Delhi’s punitive strategy applied across the spectrum against Pakistan.

Diplomatically India tries to isolate Pakistan. Delhi’s diplomatic dance with USA, Japan is followed by an attempted tango with China, even while trying to maintain the old affair with Russia.

In Afghanistan, the American drawdown from Kabul is viewed as an opportunity to establish a second front against Pakistan with Delhi’s backing. Even the US – Iran détente, further bonded by the ISIS threat is seen by India as an opportunity. Delhi aims to build Chah Bahar Port, attempting to out flank Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and reach into Central Asia.

On the military front, India’s war preparations are rising and viewing 2016 – 2018 as possible war period with Pakistan. In the next 2 – 3 years, India is planning to upgrade its defensive – deterrence capability against China. Simultaneously, it develops proactive strategy and the tide of Hinduvta has blended to make some sort of ‘Cold Start’ doable in future, (a capability India clearly lacks in 2014). In India’s strategic thinking, China might not directly enter in to an Indo Pakistan War but Pakistan will enter in to an Indo – China War.

The 1962 Indian military debacle was a clear opportunity lost by Pakistan (even if Pakistan Army was not fully geared up then). 2015 onwards after US withdrawal from Afghanistan, America will be confronting Putin’s Russia in Europe. Likely to remain embroiled with ISIS and affiliates within larger Middle East – Africa. USA’s residual Geo-strategy will be taken over by Washington’s pivot to Asia. La containment of China or bolstering an anti China alliance in Far East along with India and Japan.

India may seek a military conflict with Pakistan in an upgraded version of Cold Start. India is clearly preparing for war with Pakistan in the near future, 2 to 3 years time frame. Else this war may come about by gross Indian miscalculation or provocation!

India’s most dreaded scenario

India’s most dreaded scenario is based on a multi front threat to India which is well within the realm of possibility. This is a combination of a military threat from Pakistan and China, coupled with an asymmetrical, militant Jihadi onslaught, plus the specter of rekindled freedom movements in Kashmir, Khalistan, Assam, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere.  Indian Muslims recoil at Hinduvta while Maoist’s rebel against unbridled capitalism.  A war India is destined to lose!

In essence, the indicators could be:

• Pakistan Army’s Zar-b-Azb secures its western borders. US withdrawal from Afghanistan is replaced by pro Pakistan powers.
• Gwadar is developed and Baluchistan stabilized. China’s investment and involvement in Baluchistan creates a new balance of power in Pakistan’s favour.
• Pakistan Army relatively freed from its western border concentrates on Pakistan’s eastern border.
• Kashmir is globalised and Pakistani nation mobilized for Kashmir’s liberation.
• Kashmir and Khalistan freedom movements are synergized and have domino effect in Assam, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere in India.
• Indian Muslim Militants inspired from bases in Afghanistan and Iraq wage struggle in India.
• Pakistan selectively responds to India’s military buildup. In the next couple of years, PAF fighter jet fleet is augmented, even as Pakistan Navy acquires new submarines building up second strike capability, while Pakistan Army enhances its fire power and missile assets.
• Pakistan and China strategize on a joint two front war against India.
• Pakistan maintains friendship with USA, the western world even while cozying up with Russia. With China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Pakistan’s strategic consensus increases to the next level. Relations with old friends like Indonesia are rekindled. The recent visit of

Pakistan’s COAS, a land mark in this context. The Pakistan Army Chief’s crucial visit to USA secures Pakistan’s national security interests.

Myth of Global India

The concept of Global India is a myth waiting to be exposed. The notion of India’s rise as a super power is simply not doable. The factors of geography, history, economy, demography and other Geopolitical aspects, all constrain India from bearing the mantle of a great power.

• Geography: India is hemmed in.

‘If the north of India faces the majestic Himalayas and mountains, west of India faces the ‘Great Wall of Pakistan’.

 (From the book, ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’ by Nadir Mir)

The ocean in the south and East Asia in its east shackle India’s geography. Before stepping out of the region, India has to neutralize Pakistan and China. Since Delhi does not have the capability of conquering either, the only other suave policy option is accommodation of both. This traditionally has been anathema for the Indian elite. Now Hinduvta infused thinking has set India on a collision course in its north and west. This will further embroil Delhi in the region and retard India’s extra regional ventures.

• History

In the last 1,000 years, India has been invaded and conquered up teen times. Never did an India Army win a victory in any foreign land. All the invaders and conquerors of

India came from Afghanistan, Central Asia, West Asia and Turkic regions, except the British. All these regions combine to make up Pakistan’s identity, since Pakistan is not merely a South Asian State. The soldiers and people of Pakistan will defeat Indian bid for hegemony in the region. This is the past and future history for South Asia.

• Economy

India’s much acclaimed economic growth has been down sized. Modi’s capitalist formula is in any case to benefit the Indian elite and not its masses. Despite being one of the big economies, India is services based, rather than manufacture based. A part of the IT sector and India’s Diaspora abroad have greatly contributed, while the bulk of Indian economy is not a world leader. India does not match either Germany or Japan in technology and nor China in exports. It cannot match USA in economic terms. Russia and EU have many advantages compared to India. Even Brazil and South Africa are developing better than India as members of BRICS. Dozens of the nations of the world will have a quality of life much better than India, so Global India will remain a myth.

• Demography

“India’s exploding demography may tear it at the seams. . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . out of this over 800 million people below poverty line including 500 million existing in sheer squalor and abject poverty. . . . . . . .  . . . it is only peace in the neighbourhood which can free India to become prosperous and secure.”

(From the book, ‘Geopolitik Pakistan’ by Nadir Mir)

Pakistan’s War of National Survival

Pakistani Nation is united to defend Pakistan. The war against India is Pakistan’s war of national survival. The brave soldiers of Pakistan are supported by the entire nation. Pakistan’s conventional military strength and asymmetrical prowess can defend Pakistan and even finish the war on a favourable note.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal  

In the final analysis, Pakistan’s heroically guarded nuclear arsenal remains supreme. The world respected SPD, under the competent and bold General Zubair Hayat remain ever ready to deter Indian chauvinism. In case, Delhi strategically invades, then Pakistan’s massive nuclear and multiple assured delivery means will unleash ‘Armageddon in the East’.