MIDTERM ANALYSIS: The Logic Gap Between Polling & Reality

Just this week, a poll came out—I won’t mention the polling company—that had U.S. Senator Bill Nelson (D) ahead in his Florida senate race against Governor Rick Scott by (hang on) . . . 17 points.

Now, even if you think (and I don’t) that Nelson is ahead, this is one of those whoppers that stands up there with Hillary Clinton winning the Michigan Primary in 2016 (when Bernie Sanders drubbed her by double digits) or every single one of the pollsters getting Wisconsin wrong. The average error was six points. Some were off by as many as nine points to achieve that stunning error. Only two pollsters, Trafalgar and People’s Pundit Daily, had Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania or Michigan.
Every single “major” pollster had him losing both.

Now comes Drudge with a scare headline about a Florida “wipeout!” Well, he’s right in part. There will be a wipeout, but not of the Republicans.