Dov Fischer explains about polls

Dov Fischer writes in the American Spectator,

…Until “stuff” becomes imminently relevant and personal, people do not educate themselves and, when asked to opine, just default to the “common wisdom.” If you live in New York City or San Francisco, the common wisdom is that Trump is a fascist, a dictator, a hater, (i) even a hater of Jews, despite having Orthodox Jews at the center of his family and despite his enormous support for Israel; (ii) even of Blacks and Hispanics, despite proudly beaming that he has reduced Black and Hispanic unemployment to all-time lows and has taken unique steps to advance equality in an American economy and society, where, as he always reminds us, “we all bleed the same red, white, and blue.” People default to the “common wisdom” shared by their clients and patients, customers and friends. They do not want to argue or lose business or friends, and the issue does not imminently matter that much to them personally. Moreover, today’s rules of social repression make it very safe, professionally and socially, to bad-mouth Trump openly — and very dangerous, professionally and socially, to advocate for him. So the “common wisdom” necessarily is skewed. As athletes have learned, bad-mouth Trump or religion or men, and people will buy the razor blades you sell and the sneakers you endorse, leading the companies to pay even millions more to the leftist moronic athletes who endorse them. But praise Trump, and people will boycott your program’s advertisers, boycott your sports team, and cut you off their Christmas card list.

The public’s ignorance is reinforced by the Corrupt Journalist Corps because that is the 24/7/365 propaganda most people encounter: CBS, NBC, ABC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC, Google, Facebook. Although Fox News may have more viewers than any other cable news outlet, conservatives fool ourselves by overlooking that Fox News enjoys a near-monopoly on conservative viewers (albeit with some others contending for slivers like America One, BlazeTV, Newsmax TV, and others), while the rest of the many stations run by the Corrupt Journalist Corps reach a combined much wider audience, including the least sophisticated viewers. It is a paradox that the most sophisticated actually know so much that they turn to their ideological stations because they no longer can tolerate the garbage on the other side, while lesser sophisticates just watch whatever is convenient: CNN at the airport and at the dry cleaner, Facebook or Google on the browser, or whichever “news” from CBS or NBC or ABC happens to precede or follow the situation comedy or reality/game show they really care about. And the propaganda follows embedded in the TV shows that are created by the networks and streaming services.

And that likewise is why these numbers augur so well for Trump in November 2020. It does not matter now that he is behind 10 points in national polls. Those polls merely reflect the “common wisdom” in an environment where, except for Fox News, only one consistent message is being hammered out in the “news,” communications, and entertainment media — that he is incompetent, dictatorial, must be removed, has no support in his own party, that all his allies are abandoning him. Pure lies and Fake News 24/7/365. Three years of media vomit: Stormy Daniels, Omarosa, Avenatti, Anonymous Op-Eds, Michael Cohen, Mueller, Russian Collusion, Putin’s Russian Asset, Give Us His Taxes. But once Trump finally gets a clearly defined opponent — whether it be Communist Bernie Sanders if he then still can be cleared by doctors to stand for hours on his beloved bread lines (“[Bread lines are] a good thing!”), or the pathologically lying Faux-cahontas (“I think I’ll have me a beer”), or Joe Biden losing a thought mid-sentence to ask, “Uh, where was I?” or later asking his campaign staff more basically “Where am I?” — the polls will shift.

Even more importantly, it will be during the last two or three months before the November 2020 election when the Trump presidential campaign and the associated Republican congressional campaigns and Senate campaigns will start advertising and campaigning heavily for 10 or 12 weeks so that, for the first time in four years, people start getting exposed equally to the other side of the coin. As The Ignorant suddenly start paying attention through those final few weeks when elections become imminent and personal, they will get serious and ask themselves whether or not they want to return to an Obama–Venezuela economy of $528 million Solyndra collapses, non-existent “shovel-ready jobs,” and evaporating opportunity with endless excuses. They will contemplate whether Bernie Trotsky, Princess Speaking Bull, or Joe, Uh, Biden is the person they want in the Oval Office to protect them and their loved ones from the mullahs of Iran as those murderous Islamist butchers move toward nuclear weapons, the Dough Boy in North Korea, and the trade crooks in China. They may even contemplate how Obama did with ISIS as compared to Trump. Swing-district voters will look hard at the Democrat congressional representatives on whom they gambled two years earlier, lured by promises that these would be a different kind of Democrat who solemnly promised not to vote for Nancy Pelosi to be House Speaker but instead would go to Washington to fix health care, and will ask themselves what exactly they got for their switching parties except for two years of endless paralyzing investigations that resulted in little but the ancillary discovery of an Iron Cross tattoo in a frontal area under the underwear of Rep. Katie Hill (D-Calif.), clarifying perhaps why she ran in a “Swing” District.

We saw this poll game happen with Obama — down in the low 40s a year before beating Mitt Romney. We saw it when Trump beat Hillary in 2016. We saw it with Reagan. And with Trump already leading or running neck and neck in the key battleground states now, even before he and the GOP have unleashed the campaign avalanche and barrage that will start next August, Trump backers have reason to be encouraged by current polling.

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