Weather Briefing for Monday, July 5, 2021

NC Dept of Justice Releases May 2021 Highlights [LINK]

National Weather Map for Today

General forecast through Wednesday Night

Franklin area

Today

Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs near 85. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Calm winds.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.

Wednesday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain is 60%.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.

Highlands Plateau

Today

Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Light winds out of the southeast.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Winds out of the south 3 to 6 mph. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the midafternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-70s. Calm winds becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 5am, then a chance of rain after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 60%.

Otto area

Today

Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of rain is 30%.

Wednesday

A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of rain is 60%.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.

Nantahala area

Today

Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers in the mid-to-late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the south around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 20%.

Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the mid-to-late afternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Light winds out of the south. Chance of rain is 60%.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.

HAZARDS

Hazardous Weather is not anticipated today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, located just south of central Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

b>TROPICAL TIDBITS

Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media’s favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to “make them more exciting.” He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.

Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]

Elsa Approaching Cuba; Impacts to Florida will Begin Monday (recorded July 4th)

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX.

Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.

3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER

Air Quality

Air quality is in the upper range of green for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the upper range of green.

Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)

Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (3.3 out of 12) today with Grasses, Plantain, and Dock being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low-medium range (3.3 out of 12).

Weather Extremes for Macon County on July 5th

Highest Temperature 95°F in Franklin in 1948
Lowest Temperature 46°F in Highlands in 1996
Greatest Rainfall 3.78 inches in Highlands in 2013
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)