India’s War Fever Will Backfire

In a volatile region already burdened by historical grievances and nuclear anxieties, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is stoking the fires of nationalism with a dangerous new fervor. His government’s recent escalation in war rhetoric—whether over Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, or fabricated threats from Pakistan and China—reveals more than just electoral opportunism. It exposes a dangerous trajectory that threatens to plunge India into economic downturn, diplomatic isolation, and social fragmentation.

War hysteria is not new to Indian politics. But Modi has mastered its weaponization. From surgical strikes to Balakot air raids to recent sabre-rattling over Pakistan’s so-called “terror infrastructure,” the narrative of an eternal enemy has become central to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) political identity. The Line of Control has become not just a border—but a theater for nationalist performance.

But this jingoistic posturing carries real costs. In economic terms, India can ill-afford the consequences of militarized brinkmanship. Defense spending is already projected to cross $90 billion this year, diverting resources from critical sectors like healthcare, education, and renewable energy. Foreign investors are wary of unstable geopolitics. Recent dips in foreign direct investment (FDI) are not just about global economic headwinds; they reflect India’s increasingly hawkish posture. Risk-averse investors do not build factories in flashpoints.

Diplomatically, India’s shift toward hardline nationalism undermines its image as a responsible regional power. Once the darling of multilateral diplomacy—from BRICS to the Quad—India now finds itself viewed with increasing skepticism. Its once-ambitious “Neighborhood First” policy lies in tatters. Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are warming to China not just because of Belt and Road largesse, but due to India’s arrogance and perceived instability. Even the Gulf states, historically close allies, have expressed discomfort over Modi’s incendiary rhetoric against Muslims and Pakistan.

More worrying is the domestic fallout. War hysteria thrives on an “us versus them” binary. The Indian Muslim community, already reeling from discriminatory laws like the Citizenship Amendment Act and rising communal violence, is now increasingly seen through the lens of loyalty tests. Social trust—essential for any nation’s democratic and economic fabric—is fraying. Modi’s war talk provides oxygen to hate speech, vigilante violence, and media-fueled xenophobia.

This is not strength; it is state-sanctioned paranoia.

The irony is that India, with its demographic dividend and technological prowess, stands on the brink of global leadership. But it is precisely this potential that is being squandered in favor of chest-thumping populism. Rather than investing in education, green tech, and regional stability, the Modi administration is investing in outrage and military theatrics.

If history teaches us anything, it is that countries that flirt too long with war hysteria end up with hollow economies, brittle societies, and few friends. The international community may applaud India’s tech achievements and market size, but it will not entrust long-term partnerships to a nation that cannot distinguish leadership from bellicosity.

For India to realize its true potential, it must pivot away from performative nationalism. True strength lies not in war cries, but in the quiet, consistent work of building peace, prosperity, and pluralism.