Will The FBI Reopening of Hillary’s Email Case Effect The Election?

When the news broke, the FBI was back at it, investigating Hillary Clinton and her emails, there was likely an eruption of cheers at Trump headquarters. With ten days to go before election day, Donald Trump needed some break from the intense media coverage he’s faced the last several weeks.

Kellyanne Conway was happy enough; she tweeted about it:

A great day in our campaign just got even better. FBI reviewing new emails in Clinton probe @CNNPolitics https://t.co/WBltG2lAK6

— Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) October 28, 2016

The speculation started fast. The media loves this of course. They want the horse race. If the race is a blowout, there isn’t much to report leading up to election day. This cures that, at least for a few days. The Sunday talk shows will be all over it. Expect it to lead every one of those shows without question. The roundtable discussions will focus heavily on these latest revelations.

The campaigns are going into overdrive. The Trump campaign is likely cutting ads and preparing emails to send out. The Hillary camp is hunkering down as well, trying to figure out if Hillary should get out in front of it, or wait to see what the FBI does?

No matter what happens over the next 2-3 days or what the campaigns do, the lingering question is, “How much is this latest news about Hillary Clinton’s emails going to affect the presidential race?”

That answer isn’t terribly exciting. This is not going to have much effect on the race at all. It could move things a point or so in Donald Trump’s direction, but that is about as far as it will go.

With ten days to go before the election, who is going to change their mind at this point? For most voters, their decision is baked in. They are not going to change their minds unless something drastic happens. Barring a miracle, that is unlikely. For anybody who believes the Justice Department is suddenly going to find a reason to indict Hillary Clinton, before the election, guess again.

There is no way that happens. Even if there were a US Attorney who wanted to knock heads with whichever criminal defense attorney Hillary decides to hire, they wouldn’t be able to conduct an investigation fast enough to indict her before the election. There would have to be damning evidence of a crime to charge her following the election. This shouldn’t stop Donald Trump and his surrogates from hammering away at this over the next week. They should bring it up at every opportunity.

Where it could be beneficial, is to down-ballot candidates, particularly those running in Senate races. They can use Hillary’s corruption as a means of reminding voters of a possible Hillary win and why the Senate needs to be a check against the excess of Hillary Clinton. Several Republicans are running in states where the polling shows them within the margin of error, whether they’re ahead or behind. If handled properly, it could work to the benefits of Republican Senate candidates.

As it stands, the Senators in close races, were worried they would have to deal with Donal Trump’s visage looming over them in their races. Now, they see at least a week of Hillary Clinton having to play defense and this is a time to go alll in.

With respec to the presidential race, this doesn’t do much for either side.

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