Palace Coup in Riyadh: A new period in the Middle East

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While the war against Daesh is drawing to a close in Iraq and Syria, and the war against the pseudo-Kurdistan seems to have been avoided, several States of the Greater Middle East are regaining the initiative. Profiting from the fluidity of the moment, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has brutally eliminated the members of the royal family who may be in a position to contest his Power. So not only has the regional balance of power been modified by war, but one of the region’s main actors has just changed its objectives. A new period in the Middle East It is said that Nature abhors a vacuum. The defeat of the « Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria » (or « Daesh », according to its Arab acronym) – which, in quick succession, has just lost Mosul, under the onslaught of the Iraqi army, Rakka, taken by the US army, and Deir ez-Zor, liberated by the Syrian army – ends a war and opens a new period. The failure of Massoud Barzani to force recognition for the annexation of Kirkuk by the Kurds of the PDK cancels the project for a new colonial State, a pseudo-Kurdistan, an advance base for the Israëli army against Iran. Although the Greater Middle East is devastated, particularly Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan, there still remain four States capable of advancing their interests – Israël, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. In order to do so, each of them will have to adopt an initiative before the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which is scheduled to take place during the APEC summit in Danang (8 to 10 November). On 3 November, Israël declared itself ready to protect the Druzes, from the South of Syria, against the jihadists who had just attacked the Syrian village of Hader. Since the beginning of 2017, Tel-Aviv has been trying to create a Druze separatist movement in the South of Syria on the model of the one it had built with the Kurds from the North and Iraq. Mossad recruited Syrian Major Khaldoun Zeineddine, who attempted to declare a « Druzistan ». But he managed to raise only a dozen combatants willing to fight Damascus. On the same day, Turkey gathered the different jihadist organisations from Idleb in order to create a « Government of National Salvation », presided by Muhammad Al-Sheikh, and including Riyad Al-Asaad as Vice-Prime Minister. For the governorate of Idleb, Ankara recycled the idea of its Qatari ally, which, in 2012, had already founded an alternative Syrian government under the title of the « Syrian National Coalition ». There has been no sign from Teheran, probably because the Islamic Republic of Iran is the only one of the four great States which has beaten both Daesh and the Barzanis. It therefore has no interest in changing the deal. The surprise came from Riyadh. The royal family has not sought to impose a new regional order, but Prince Mohammed ben Salame (« MBS ») has shaken up the fossilised structure of his kingdom. The resignation of Saad Hariri On 4 November at about 11 a.m. UTC, the Lebanese Prime Minister, speaking on the TV channel Al-Arabiya, live from the Hotel Ritz in Riyadh, and in the presence of the Saudi Crown Prince « MBS », announced his resignation. Reading carefully from the text which had been written for him, Saad Hariri suddenly forgot that he was President of a government which included ministers from Hezbollah. He expressed himself in these terms – « Wherever Iran is present, it sows division and destruction. The proof of this is evident in their interference in the Arab countries, without mentioning its deep grudge against the Arab nation (…) Iran maintains a grip on the destiny of the countries of the region (…) Hezbollah is the arm of Iran, not only in Lebanon, but also in the other countries (…) Unfortunately, I have realised that certain compatriots are working hand in hand with Iran, and are trying to force Lebanon out of its Arab environment. Glorious People of Lebanon, Hezbollah has succeeded, thanks to the force of arms, in imposing a de facto situation (…) I want to tell Iran and its acolytes that they have lost. The hands that clutch at the Arab States will be cut off, and evil will turn on those who use it. » This dramatic text buries the religious Sunni / Chiite conflict and relaunches the racist conflict of the Arabs against the Persians. This is a form of progress, despite appearances, insofar as the occasions for war are more limited – the Sunnis and the Chiites live together, while the Arabs and the Persians are settled in distinct territories. In concrete terms, for Lebanon, this shake-up does not really change much. Above all, the text offers no indication of the reasons for the Prime Minister’s resignation. Saad Hariri added that he was afraid for his life. Shortly afterwards, Al-Arabiya explained that a few days earlier, Hariri had escaped an assassination attempt. However, first the Lebanese police, then Lebanese General Security expressed their doubts by denying that they had any knowledge of such an attack. Al-Arabiya assured that Rafic Hariri, Saad’s father, had been assassinated in 2005 by Iran – despite the fact that the same channel had persisted for years in accusing the Lebanese and Syrian Presidents, Emile Lahoud and […]

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