The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 04 2023

Ukraine’s counter-offensive has begun – but where is it?

Russia slows down, Ukraine prepares for counteroffensive

If Ukraine does not launch a counteroffensive soon, it will face a bleak future
said Lord Dannatt, a former chief of the General Staff of the British Army.

He stressed that thanks to the supply of Western weapons and support, Ukraine will be able to make a “breakthrough” on the battlefield.

Dannatt also added about the importance of preserving the life of the President of Ukraine. In his opinion, Zelensky is “a precious stone in the crown of Ukraine at the moment” which is important for the morale of the country
 

Ukraine needs fighter jets to stop glide bombs

According to a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force, the Ukrainian army is not able to withstand Russian long-range gliding bombs in front-line areas and needs American-made fighter jets.

Kiev has long called on its NATO supporters to provide new aircraft, in particular the American F-16.

Poland and Slovakia sent Soviet fighters to Ukraine, but it was much more difficult to coordinate the delivery of F-16s.
The West argues for the refusal by saying that American fighters require too much time to train Ukrainian pilots to operate new systems. Ukraine will also need to build a new infrastructure to accommodate NATO aircraft.

Ukraine is hiding details of a counteroffensive from its allies because of a leak to the USA, Politico has reported.

According to its sources, Ukraine cited the alleged leak to social networks of secret documents of the US Defence Ministry and intelligence service as one of the reasons why Kiev is not sharing information about the counterattack, including its timing, location and the number of troops they plan to move for the operation.

The documents circulated on social media cited information about the course of the conflict in Ukraine, such as the positions of Ukrainian troops, weapons stocks and casualty estimates. In the days following the leak, representatives of the Washington administration tried to assure Ukraine and allies in Europe that they were taking measures to prevent similar incidents in the future

There is a hypothesis that the so-called Ukrainian offensive is planned for the May holidays, that is, for the very next few days.

An appropriate informational background is created for it, such as harmless, but morally sensitive strikes on the roofs of the Kremlin and minor sabotage throughout the country. Probably, for the sake of this, they specifically strained the entire existing network of agents.

When the actions of the troops begin, the warmed-up public will perceive even the smallest successes of the Ukrainians as “boss, everything is lost,” leaks, leaks, betrayal, defeat.

Since such news partially reaches the troops, then at the local level, any retreat can be perceived as a flight with corresponding results. The consequences are clear. Raids of Ukrainians across the old border of the Russian Federation can become a separate case of panic.

Obviously, in the coming days, one should maintain information hygiene and not give in to panic. No enemy successes can affect the course of the SMO as much as instability in the rear. https://t.me/elite_rezerve/20928

Prigozhin has released a pretty grim video of him in front of Wagner battlefield dead giving a raging rant directed at Shoigu, Gerasimov and the Russian military decrying  them for incompetence and playing politics by starving his men of ammunition and equipment

Yevgeny Prigozhin published a video of the dead today Wagner fighters with an appeal to the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation:
“These are the guys who died today, the blood is still fresh. Listen to me! These are someone’s fathers and someone’s sons.And those bitches that don’t give us ammo will go to hell. Shoigu, Gerasimov! We have a 70% ammo shortage.Where is the ammo? Look at these guys. You sit critters in clubs, your children enjoy life and shoot videos on YouTube. You think that you are the masters of life and have the right to dispose of their lives. You have ammunition depots, there are calculations and if you give the norm of ammunition, then these guys would be 5 times less. They volunteered here and are dying for you to fatten in your mahogany cabinets. Consider it…”  

These guys here are the Wagner PMC, who died today, the blood is still fresh. Get them all on camera (to the cameraman). And now listen to me suka blyat – it’s someone’s fathers and someone’s sons and those … who don’t give us ammunition… will eat their fucking guts in hell, motherfuckers. We have a 70% ammunition shortage. Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the fuck is the ammunition? Look at them, bitches… You bitches are sitting in expensive clubs, your kids are getting off on life and making videos on youtube. You think you’re the masters of this life and that you have the right to control THEIR lives. Do you think that if you have shell warehouses, you have the right to do so? There are elementary calculations, if you gave normative number of ammunition they (points to the dead) would be five times less. They came here as volunteers and are dying for you to live in your redwood offices. Keep that in mind.

The conflict between the PMC leadership and the Ministry of Defence is still unresolved, apparently.
At the same time, the AFU soldiers write that they are still being pelted with shells in Bakhmut, and this is allegedly misinformation. And on the Net, they publish statements about the supply of ammunition to the Wagner group from the Defense Ministry’s warehouses.
According to representatives of other units, the situation with shells is no different. The logistics have been disrupted by
Where was the truth – we will find out one day…
It’s a pity our guys from all units… Heaven rest the dead and eternal memory…

P.s. Remember the hackers warning that this week the cyber armies of the khokhlos (https://t.me/i20028843/78582) (led by the CIA) will start to stir up the topic of betrayal within Russia? Now that’s very apt….

Correspondents are interviewing people who remained in the liberated territory of Artemovsk. This elderly man clearly explained why he did not follow the Ukronazis and even complained that the Russian troops were too late in liberating the city. “For me, the Soviet Union is my Motherland. Otherwise, I wouldn’t hide here, I’d leave with the Ukrainians, and I wouldn’t wait for the Russians… I was waiting, I thought, f*ck, you’d come faster..” said the man.

About the ammo problems and what I know. In general, Wagner gets quite a bit of ammo. And it is often enough to prepare good and strong attacks with artillery. What’s the point though, since UA has ramped up their artillery fire sharply over the last few days, it makes sense that Wagner needs to fire just as much here or else they’ll be pushed back. And here there seem to be problems and Wagner doesn’t get more than they’ve always gotten up until now. And that’s the whole point that upsets Prigozhin. And I can understand him there, as you’ve probably all noticed, there hasn’t been much progress in Bakhmut in the last few days. This is also due to the strong arrillian fire from UA. They have increased that significantly, and that makes it difficult for Wagner to advance. Therefore, they also have to fire about the same amount of artillery as UA. But they can’t because their ammo consumption is currently declining much faster than UA’s. The latter have been holding back their ammunition for the upcoming offensive. That’s why you have a lot more available at the moment. Now a few days ago they got clearance to increase the shelling and they are doing it all along the front now.
A solution must be found quickly here so that Wagner does not get the same amount of ammunition as always, but more. Otherwise, they will get into trouble very quickly and even if they are strong fighters, UA will eventually overrun them.

You always have casualties every day in a war. That is unfortunately the case. But with a lot of artillery you can reduce them.

Bakhmut Endgame | Artillery Limit Lifted | Heavy Fighting In The NW and SW

Bakhmut Update | Ukrainian Kamikaze Drones Search for Putin | Ukraine Begins Probing for Attack

Bakhmut Front Update [4 May 2023]

Battle for #Belogorovka – Situation until 18:00 on 4 May 2023⚡️

#Belogorovka has been a notorious settlement since last May, when units of the Central Military District attempted (https://t.me/rybar/32642) to take it by storm by forcing the Northern Donets. Under enemy fire, the crossing was destroyed and several dozen pieces of equipment were abandoned.

Ultimately, #Belogorovka fell after the capture of the #Lisichansk – #Severodonetsk agglomeration. But after retreating from #Kharkov region, the RF Armed Forces were forced to retreat from occupied settlements in the #Lugansk People’s Republic.

#Belogorovka ended up in enemy hands. The settlement was repeatedly attempted to be taken by storm, but because of the quarry it was difficult to approach it.

▪️ Yesterday, the units of the RF Armed Forces led by “Akhmat-North” wedged in (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/84678?single) in the enemy’s defense near the compressor station in the industrial zone to the southeast of the settlement. Having managed to clear the buildings, the units took up defense.

▪️ Having shelled the RF Armed Forces’ positions with artillery, the enemy threw assault units at them and managed to clamp the RF Armed Forces in a pincer.

▪️ By the middle of today, the RF Armed Forces managed to unblock the encircled units and thin out the enemy’s defensive formations. After the rotation, the Russian units continued the positional struggle, gaining a foothold to the east of the quarry.

From a soldier stationed on the Zaporozhye front..

The AFU will try to break through in the Tokmak area of the Zaporozhye region – presumably, the enemy will hit the rear and try to destroy the reserves of the Russian army

With the highest degree of probability, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to probe our defenses near the city of Tokmak, Zaporozhye region – unlike previous attempts, their offensive will be much larger in terms of the number of armored vehicles and aircraft involved. Most likely, the enemy will try to strike at the rear of our lines and block the roads, presumably to cut off the supply routes for the Russian army, a fighter with the call sign “Oka”, who is in this direction, told  Readovka.

The enemy forces are significant and have been converging in the Zaporozhye direction for more than a month. Today the enemy also tried to probe our defenses in the city of Orekhov, but was covered by Russian artillery.

Russian telegram channels report that the Armed Forces of Ukraine went on the offensive yesterday in two areas – near Ugledar in the Donetsk region and Orekhov in Zaporozhye.

One of the commanders of the “DPR” Khodakovsky said that when trying to break through the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Ugledar, six Russians were injured, while the attack was repulsed.

According to him, the land is becoming drier, and the number of Ukrainian counterattacks is increasing.

It is also reported about the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the village of Rabotino near Orekhov.
The Russians claim to have repulsed an attempted breakthrough there. In their opinion, it was a reconnaissance in force to calculate the state of the Russian positions.

Ukraine did not comment on this in the morning summary of the General Staff. But it is known that such attempts have already been made repeatedly – especially near Zaporozhye, where, as expected, there will be the most likely vector of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

At the same time, the American “Institute for the Study of War” believes that “Russian sources continue to disproportionately exaggerate statements about the routine activity of Ukrainians along the front line in the Zaporozhye region to suggest that a counteroffensive may have already begun.”

A number of Russian military publications also write that reports of “the start of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”, in particular, near Orekhovo, are a very strong exaggeration. But in fact, there are only local battles and attempts at reconnaissance in force.

-Ukrainian channel Strana

An excellent anti-PR for Bayraktar was staged today by Ukrainian officials, who pointed out that the Bayraktar UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine simply lost control (that is, went out of order) and flew over Kiev until it was shot down by air defense.
This is a “hello” to the Turks from the Ukrainian “partners”.
If in 2022 Bayraktar received a lot of PR, and in fact his image grew, then today’s case immediately dealt an irreparable image blow.

!!WE HAVE BAYRAKTAR!!

Message from known hacker JokerDPR, which explains a lot of things about a drone incident over Kiev today:

“One Ukrainian soldier, who was assigned to be involved in the management of Bayraktar, decided to choose not war, but peace and a happy future. He helped organize the safe landing of the Turkish bird on our territory. Now we also have Bayraktar. And the boy himself left Ukraine to spend the money honestly earned for this deal.

I am adding a video from that very Bayraktar. I erased the date and coordinates, because it doesn’t matter where and when it flies and where it takes off from, but I deliberately left the bird’s serial number. To make it easier for the Ukrainian high command to determine the details of the disappearance of this important object.

Every Ukrainian soldier and officer should know that they have equal rights to sell any things that are useful to us, especially imported ones. You already know how to contact Donetsk buyers”

Do you know what is the most ridiculous thing about today’s incident with the downed Turkish Bayraktar TB2 over Kiev ?

It is that the incident occurred almost immediately after the completion of the Bayraktar UAV calculations under the guidance of Turkish instructors.

Yes, now there is activity of 6-8 Turkish drones per day in different sectors of the front. But, if during the training a Turkish operator was necessarily included in the calculation, now the Ukrainians turned out to be on their own.

As they said in the air defense of Ukraine? “Lost Control”?

Last year, when only Ukrainians controlled the Bayraktar crews, the Baykar concern suffered reputational losses: the mass failure of Turkish “birds” at that time was due not only to the efforts of Russian air defense, but also to the curvature of the hands of Turkish operators.

Trained a new party. Trusted. Already lost one. Keep it up.

Russian state TV discusses the Kremlin drone incident

What was the True Purpose of the Drones Attack on the Kremlin?

Battlefield Ukraine Russia to Respond

Ramzan Kadyrov: The attack on the Kremlin is nothing more than a provocation and forced into more massive actions – a favorite technique of modern hybrid wars and Western generals, the results of which are beneficial to the provocateurs themselves.

This provocation today should not and will not change the scenario of the planned course of a special military operation . Yes, this is an attack on the president, and therefore on the state and, as a result, on the entire people of the Russian Federation. But this should not affect our conceived plans and interests. And, of course, there will be retribution. And it will be surgically and jewelry accurate.

Scott Ritter told Sputnik that Ukraine’s Kremlin drone attack was likely a risky gamble to get more military support from NATO.

“We’ll find out if this is a gross miscalculation, because again we have to come back to what started this: two drones hit the Kremlin, and I can guarantee you if two drones hit the White House, the people who perpetrated that attack would cease to exist. That’s probably the future of Zelensky’s government.”

Ukrainian politicians have launched a orchestrated campaign to deny involvement in the terrorist attack..Same as in  previous cases. Thus, the head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, David Arakhamia, expressed his “personal opinion based on a series of insiders”.

They say that the attack on the Kremlin was carried out on the collective order of the Russian oligarchs, who fell under sanctions because of the Putin regime. This is the first collective game of the “offended club”. Arakhamia expressed hope that it would not be the last.

After yesterday’s Raid of Ukrainian UAVs on the #Kremlin, instead of the Voice of Reason, Screams of Madness are heard⚡️

Someone calls for a complete ban on UAV flights throughout #Russia. Someone calls in response to demolish the Bankova (the Presidential Administration of #Ukraine, whose offices are located on Bankova Street) from the face of the earth. Someone wants to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Several questions arise about such measures at once.

By banning UAV flights, we will immediately complicate the process of training operators and the work of volunteers. While everyone is being introduced into the bureaucratic path, time will be lost.

If #Russia uses a penny drone to beat with nuclear weapons, it is not difficult to guess that after that #Russia will be treated like a rabid dog that needs to be shot. Applying tactical nuclear weapons in a hysterical manner is a so-so story.

If in order to strike at Bankova, from where, among other things, terrorist activities on the territory of Russia are coordinated, it is necessary to fire at the Kremlin, then this, to put it mildly, raises questions about the goal-setting of the #SMO.

In the dry balance, yesterday’s #Kremlin’s response in the spirit that “we reserve the right to retaliate, but we will not say when it will be and what scale” looks much more logical and thoughtful than the white hysterical noise in the information field.

RYBAR

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (4 May 2023)⚡️

The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.

💥 In Kupyansk direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces have engaged the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) close to Novoselovskoye (LPR), Pershotravnevoye and Novomlynsk (Kharkov region).

◽️ In addition, actions of 6 sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the AFU were thwarted near Stelmakhovka (Kharkov region), Kislovka, Sinkovka, Timkovka, and Ivanovka (LPR).

◽️ Up to 30 Ukrainian troops, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, 3 motor vehicles, and 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit have been eliminated in this direction during the day.

💥Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 67th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU was destroyed close to Volchansk (Kharkov region).

◽️ In Krasny Liman direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the AFU units close to Terny, Serebryanka (DPR), and Nevskoye and Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR).

💥 In the past 24 hours, the enemy has lost up to 70 troops, 1 tank, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 pickup trucks, and 1 Msta-B howitzer.

◽️ In Donetsk direction, the assault squads have seized 2 blocks and continue fighting in the west part of the city of Artyomovsk.

💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Yug Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage on the 60th, 93rd mechanised brigades, and 54th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU close to Krasnoye, southwestern outskirts of Artyomovsk, and Grigorovka.

💥 Over the past 24 hours, aircraft flew 6 sorties, and the Group’s artillery carried out 57 firing missions in this area.

◽️ Airborne Troops have been impeding the attempts of the enemy to counterattack on the flanks.

💥 Up to 255 Ukrainian troops, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, 6 motor vehicles, 2 D-20 howitzers, and 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit have been eliminated in this direction during the day.

◽️ Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 54th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU has been hit close to Belogorovka.
 
◽️ In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on AFU units close Ugledar, Vodyanoye, Velikaya Novosyolka (DPR), and Chervonoye, Kamenskoye, Novodanilovka, and Malaya Tolokmachka (Zaporozhye region).

💥 Up to 30 Ukrainian troops, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, 3 motor vehicles, 2 D-30 howitzers, and 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit have been eliminated in this direction during the day.

◽️ In Kherson direction, up to 35 Ukrainian troops, 6 motor vehicles, and 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and 2 D-30 and Msta-B howitzers have been destroyed over the past 24 hours.
 
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 103 AFU artillery units at their fire positions, manpower, and military hardware in 118 areas during the day.

💥 Command and observation posts of the AFU’s 128th Mountain Assault, 54th Mechanised brigades, the AFU Yug Special Forces Centre near Novoandreyevka (Zaporozhye region), Belogorovka (LPR), and Nestryga Island (Kherson region) have been neutralised.

◽️ An ammunition depot of the 66th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU has been hit close to Slavyansk (DPR).

◽️ A fuel storage facility for Ukrainian force grouping was destroyed near Kirvograd.
 
◽️ Air defence forces have intercepted 9 HIMARS, Uragan, and Smerch MLRS projectiles during the day.

💥 Moreover, 14 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down close to Novoprokofyevka (Zaporozhye region), Lyubovka, Kamenka, Lebyazhye, Kirillovka (DPR), Lisichansk, Krivosheyevka, and Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR).

Special Operation, 4 May 2023, Main; pub. 22:40⚡️

▪️ The Russian Federation has warned #Ukraine and its Western sponsors of the unfortunate consequences of an intended counterattack, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin said;
▪️ Ukrainian UAV attack on residential areas in #Kherson Region repulsed, Ukrainian troop rotation on the line of contact disrupted, head of the #Dnieper Group press centre Rulev said;
▪️ Russian oil depots in the #Krasnodar Territory and #Rostov Region have caught fires due to drone attacks, local authorities said;
▪️ #Kremlin attack to be investigated, relevant agencies are dealing with it, Peskov said;
▪️ #US has no involvement in drone attacks on #Kremlin and does not know who is behind them, White House said;
▪️ DPR prosecutor’s office to try 4 Ukrainian marines who shot dead 12 civilians in #Mariupol, Russian Prosecutor General’s Office said;
▪️ Assault squads have liberated two blocks of #Artyomovsk, continue destroying the enemy in the west of the city, the Russian Ministry of Defence said;
▪️ The #US has given #Ukraine everything it needs for a proposed counteroffensive in the coming weeks and months, the White House said.

#Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 4 May 2023⚡️

🔹#Russia’s Hinterland:

▪️ In the #Rostov region, one Ukrainian UAV crashed into an under-construction trestle near a fuel storage facility at the Novoshakhtinsk Refinery.

▪️ In the #Krasnodar region, four Ukrainian drones were used on another site. One of the drones has managed to reach its target and destroyed a fuel tank on the territory of Ilsky Oil Refinery.

▪️ In the #Voronezh region, a Ukrainian UAV fell on the territory of a military unit in the village of #Buturlinovka.

🔹#Russia’s Border Areas:

▪️ In the #Bryansk region’s Suzemsky district, the AFU terrorists shelled the village of Polevye Novoselki. Several houses were damaged, five civilians were injured, one woman’s leg was blown off.

▪️ Over #Belgorod, a Shark reconnaissance drone was shot down.

🔹#Starobelsk (#Svatovo) Direction:

▪️ In the #Kupyansk sector, artillery duels and mutual reconnaissance along the entire line of contact continue.

▪️ In the #Liman sector, units of the RF Armed Forces are fighting positional battles near #Makeyevka and Balka Zhuravka.

🔹#Soledar (#Bakhmut) Direction:

▪️ The RF Armed Forces are fighting 👉 Heavy Battles (https://t.me/sitreports/8168) for #Belogorovka (close to #Lisichansk) and managed to gain a foothold in the area of Popasna Compressor Station on the southeastern outskirts of the settlement.

▪️ In the western outskirts of #Bakhmut, units of the Wagner PMC continue fighting in residential areas. Approximately 6% of the settlement remains under the control of the AFU.

🔹#Donetsk Direction:

▪️ The AFU Terrorists shelled #Donetsk, #Gorlovka, #Kamenka, #Yasinovataya, #Yelenovka and other populated areas.
 
▪️ In the #Ugledar section, the enemy undertook a reconnaissance battle near the #Nikolskoye Dachas, attempting to cut off the Russian positions and take them into a ring.
➖ At the same time, an attempt was made to develop the offensive towards #Pavlovka. By the end of the day, Russian troops had succeeded in repulsing the Ukrainian attack.

War Map and the Situation on the Fronts in the Evening of 4 May 2023; pub. 00:05⚡️

🫶 #Artyomovsk is the hottest point to date. Fighting was going on for every street, severely destroying the city. Of course, once the “Orchestrators” have fully liberated, things will start to rebuild. A look at how the city, which has found a new name, looks like in the special report (https://t.me/readovkanews/58164) of Readovka.

⚔️ Situation on the Fronts for the past Day

🔹#Svatovo – #Kremennaya Direction:

▪️ Fierce fighting (https://t.me/readovkanews/58153) is going on near #Belogorovka. The Russian army is fighting for the industrial zone of the settlement, facing the successful work of the enemy’s artillery. Through the efforts of the Akhmat-North detachment the firing blockade has been lifted and a rotation has been carried out.

🔹#Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut) Sector:

➖ Counterattacks are taking place in the area of #Bogdanovka.
➖ In #Artyomovsk, the “Musicians” have advanced in the northern and western areas.
➖ In addition, ours are advancing on #Krasnoye and #Predtechino.

🔹#Donetsk Direction:

➖ Russian forces knocked out the militants on the approaches to #Pervomayskoye.
➖ Meanwhile, the AFU attempted to counterattack near #Staromikhaylovka.
➖ Also, our forces are successfully advancing (https://t.me/readovkanews/58124) in the western part of #Marinka.
▪️In the #Ugledar section, the AFU are trying (https://t.me/readovkanews/58159) to advance in the area of northern dachas and #Pavlovka. Soldiers of the 155th Brigade are working in these sections, burning enemy armoured vehicles.
➖ The militants have also stepped up in #Nikolskoye, but were met with heavy artillery fire.

💥 Today a Bayraktar TB2 was shot down (https://t.me/readovkaru/3216) over #Kiev. This time all the “advantages” of the Turkish drone were demonstrated by the Ukrainian air defence. The 404 media had already tried to pass it off as a Russian vehicle, but the AFU officially admitted (https://t.me/readovkanews/58175) that they shot down their own drone.