What’s next in Ukraine? Are more drones on their way to Russia?
Ukrainian Summer Offensive | Comprehensive Analysis
KADYROV RECEIVED ORDERS FOR CHECHEN UNITS TO DEPLOY & GO ON THE OFFENSIVE; Area of Ops Donetsk Front
The shelling of Shebekino, the shelling of the Kursk region, the UAV attack on Moscow – these are all elements of the Ukrainian offensive. Yes, it actually started.
An offensive in the current reality can be a complex of military strikes supported by information attacks. An example of such tactics was, in particular, analyzed in the NATO Review in 2021 in a series of articles on the war in the “grey zone”, in particular, in the analytical article “Hybrid Warfare – New Threats, Complexity, and ‘Trust’ as the Antidote” . In particular, it says:
“With the advent of modern hybrid warfare, the means of warfare have become much greater. This means that the politics-warfare matrix has become even more complex as the dynamics of war are constantly changing.
From now on, war means a whole range of possibilities. Sometimes this involves kinetic operations along with the use of non-state actors. Sometimes cyberattacks against critical infrastructure can be carried out in parallel with disinformation campaigns. There are many ways, as well as opportunities to combine them or use them in parallel.
Due to hybrid warfare, the dynamics of the conflict become darker, not only because there is a wide and growing toolbox for undermining the enemy, but also because it becomes possible to deprive him of security on two fronts at the same time.
So, if we consider the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a reflection of the NATO strategy (well, how else can we consider them if NATO is de facto in charge of everything), then we are dealing with an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is conducted by hybrid methods.
French President Emmanuel Macron invited Volodymyr Zelensky to hold a peace summit on Ukraine in Paris, Denmark and Sweden made similar proposals – The Wall Street Journal, citing European diplomats.
Well, then hold your peace talks among yourselves, for example
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at a security conference in Slovakia opposed the proposals of countries to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine.
According to her, this “will only freeze the conflict”, and the line of contact will be a source of destabilization for the region.
“A ceasefire that leaves the conflict frozen will not lead to a lasting peace
A ceasefire would be unstable and would destabilize the region along the line of contact.
No one will invest or rebuild (Ukraine) and conflict could flare up at any moment. No.
A just peace should lead to the withdrawal of Russian troops and equipment from the territory of Ukraine,” she said.
The head of the EC also once again supported the “peace formula” of Volodymyr Zelensky.
“Today they say that Vladimir Putin lost the war, and his defeat is that Finland joined NATO. Ladies and gentlemen, Vladimir Putin has not lost a single war, but I hope that he will lose it. Now, we have a situation, when the Russian roller crushes Ukraine. Russia is a nuclear power.It has gigantic arms depots. I want to remind our German neighbours that the Russians were in Berlin. To remind my colleagues from France that they were also in Paris during the Napoleonic era. We know that only victory over Russia will give us a safe world”, said Duda
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny spoke by phone with the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark “Kyiv could fall within 72 hours”Milley, about the plans for the Ukrainian offensive.
“He spoke about the situation at the front, the future plans of the Armed Forces to liberate Ukrainian territory and possible actions by the enemy. We paid attention to the issue of deliveries of weapons, military equipment and ammunition. Among the priority needs are long-range shells.
He informed about massive enemy attacks with cruise and ballistic missiles, attack drones and guided bombs. It is important to work on strengthening the air defense of Ukraine through additional systems and F-16 fighters,” he said in his Telegram channel.
After two weeks since the end of the battle for Bakhmut/Artemovsk the battle for Donbas are close to restart fiercely. New Russian reinforcements are arriving to the eastern front in order to continue the offensive operations. In recent days, many people have been wondering where the new Russian offensive would take place, and everything seems to indicate that it will take place: the answer is that will take place in different areas.
First of all we have Bilohorivka, during the last days Russian Army has increased their attacks around the town from the forest area at the northern shore of Donets river and from the east close to the filtration plant. The objective is the development of a pincer movement to force Ukrainian forces (Which are strongly entrenched there) to leave the town. The objective is not the beginning of an offensive towards Seversk but leveling the frontline and keep fighting as far away as possible from Lysychansk
The second place is the entire frontline situated in Ocheretyne & Marinka Hromadas. In this long frontline Russian Army will continue the attrition war by advancing slowly towards the Ukrainian Army defenses trying to:
- Develop the encirclement over the city of Avdivka, probably the next important battle of the war
- Increasing the buffer zone west of Donetsk city by continue advancing in Marinka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske.
On the other hand, Ukrainian Army will continue the preparations for the offensive in the southern front, but also will continue to defend the Donbas section under its control by shifting part of these resources eastward, which might affect the the start of the offensive, which is unlikely to take place during the rest of the spring.
Yesterday (30 May 2023), satellite images with the results of a strike by Russian troops on the building of the GUR of #Ukraine in #Kiev appeared on the Net. On the frame from 30 May, an earthen embankment appeared, characteristic either for the consequences of the impact, or for some kind of excavation.
Recall that on the morning of 29 May, Russian troops attacked the headquarters of the main intelligence directorate on Rybalsky Island. The defeat of the decision-making center was also announced yesterday by President Vladimir Putin.
The Ukrainian authorities stated that all missiles and UAVs were shot down by air defence systems, but they did not provide any evidence. A little later, the head of the GUR Kirill Budanov said that the AFU would avenge the attack on the facility in #Kiev. A day later, a UAV raid on Moscow took place.
And already today, additional photos of GUR buildings appeared on Ukrainian channels, on which hits were clearly visible.
ðŸ“Œ How effective was the strike of the RF Armed Forces and why did the C-21A aircraft of the 86th Air Medical Evacuation Squadron of the US Air Force fly to #Rzeszow in an emergency from Ramstein Air Base yesterday?
Read more on our Website
According to preliminary data, the Russian Aerospace Forces are actively working with planning bombs on warehouses and hangars with equipment and ammunition of the UAF militants in the Orekhovsky district and in the city of Orekhov itself, in the Gulyaipolsky district and the city of Gulyaipole itself, as well as in the Nazi-controlled part of the Pologovsky district and in the nearest suburbs of the regional center.
Nebenzya – at the UN Security Council on Nuclear Security in Ukraine: We will continue to ensure the protection of the ZNPP in such a way as to prevent Kyiv and the collective West from violating them grossly and irresponsibly. Russia will respond extremely harshly to any attacks by Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhya NPP, critical facilities of its infrastructure, including the power supply lines of the plant, as well as on the city of Energodar, where NPP employees and their families live.
We expect that the IAEA Secretariat, for its part, will also demonstrate the impartiality and non-partisanship of the Agency and openly condemn the actions of Ukraine, which has repeatedly brought the world to the brink of a nuclear incident that could affect not only the territory around the nuclear power plant, but also far beyond its borders, in including in Europe. It will be a nuclear disaster.
A boiler house, a poultry farm and a construction camp were hit: five civilians were killed and another 19 were injured.
Two victims in a particularly serious condition were transferred to the Lugansk Republican Clinical Hospital.
According to the JCCC, the attack was carried out using three M30A1 and one M31 missiles. The M30A1 contains 180,000 tungsten carbide balls as projectiles.
Such ammunition is used for only one purpose – to kill and injure as many people as possible.
Fierce fighting is taking place near Avdeevka, in the Donetsk direction the enemy has been knocked out of its positions in a number of areas near the settlements of Krasnogorovka and Yasinovataya (DPR)
The assault detachments of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the Akhmat special forces detachment are carrying out successful offensives in the Mariinskoye tactical direction, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
Intercepted Storm Shadow and losses of AFU in Donetsk direction: the main thing from the briefing of the Russian Defense Ministry
⚡️ Three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were disrupted in the Kupiansk direction. As many as 70 servicemen were destroyed during the day. In addition, ammunition depots of the 60th mechanized brigade of the AFU were destroyed in Kharkov Region;
⚡️ More than 50 servicemen were destroyed in the Krasnolimansky direction;
⚡️ A rocket and artillery weapons depot of the 110th mechanized brigade of the AFU was destroyed in the Donetsk direction. The losses of the enemy amounted to over 200 servicemen;
⚡️ Up to 185 servicemen were destroyed in the South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions;
⚡️ Ammunition depots of a brigade of Ukrainian fighters destroyed in Zaporozhye region;
⚡️ Up to 30 Ukrainian servicemen lost in Kherson direction;
⚡️ 103 artillery units, manpower and military equipment were hit in 149 areas;
⚡️ A command post of 65th mechanised brigade of the AFU is hit in Zaporozhye region;
⚡️ Air defence intercepts 12 HIMARS multiple-launch rockets and one long-range Storm Shadow cruise missile. 11 Ukrainian drones were destroyed.
ðŸ’¥ On May 29, as a result of a high-precision strike launched by the Russian Aerospace Forces against a military berth in the port of Odessa, the last of the Ukrainian warships, Yuri Olefirenko, was destroyed.
◽️ In Kupyansk direction, assault squads, Operational-Tactical aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems of the Zapad Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage on the AFU close to Tabayevka, Molchanovo, Novomlynsk, Berestovoye (Kharkov region), and Novoselovskoye and Stelmakhovka (LPR).
◽️ 3 AFU SRGs have been disabled close to Timkovka, Sinkovka, and Kotlyarovka. Up to 70 troops, 2 AFVs, and 4 pickup trucks were neutralised.
◽️ Moreover, ammunition depots of the AFU’s 60th Mechanised Brigade were destroyed close to Liptsy and Sinelnikovo (Kharkov region).
◽️ In Krasny Liman direction, aviation and artillery of the Tsentr Group of Forces engaged the units of the enemy close to Makeyevka, Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR), Torskoye, Yampolovka (DPR) and the Serebryanskoye forestry.
◽️ Over 50 AFU troops, 2 AFVs, 3 motor vehicles, 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, 2 D-20 howitzers, 1 D-30 howitzer, and 1 Grad MLRS system the enemy has lost in this direction.
◽️ In the Donetsk direction, the fiercest hostilities are taking place near Avdeyevka.
◽️ In the course of active operations by assault squads of the 1st Army Corps supported by aviation, artillery fire, and heavy flamethrower systems of the Yug Group of Forces, the enemy was dislodged from occupied positions in a number of areas near the settlements of Krasnogorovka and Yasinovataya (DPR).
◽️ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation launched strikes to engage AFU units near Avdeyevka and Khimik. In addition, a warehouse of rocket and artillery weapons of the AFU’s 110th Mechanised Brigade has been obliterated.
◽️ The 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade and the Akhmat Special Forces Detachment are carrying out successful offensives in Maryinka direction.
◽️ In this direction, the enemy has suffered losses of over 200 troops, 3 AFVs, 12 motor vehicles, 1 D-30 howitzer, and 2 Grad MLRS vehicles during the day.
◽️ In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the AFU units close to Velikaya Novosyolka, Pavlovka, Vladimirovka (DPR) and Malinovka (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ Up to 185 troops, 2 AFVs, and 4 motor vehicles have been eliminated in this direction during the day. Moreover, ammunition depots of the AFU’s 65th Mechanised Brigade were wiped out close to Preobrazhenka and Chervonaya Krinitsa (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ In Kherson direction, up to 30 troops, 2 AFVs, and 2 motor vehicles have been destroyed.
ðŸ’¥ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 103 AFU artillery units, manpower and hardware in 149 areas during the day.
◽️ Moreover, a command post of the AFU’s 33rd Mechanised Brigade was destroyed close to Trudovoye (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ A command and observation post of the AFU’s ‘Skala’ assault battalion was eliminated close to Avdeyevka (DPR).
◽️ Air defence forces have intercepted 12 HIMARS MLRS projectiles and 1 Storm Shadow long-range cruise missile during the day.
◽️ Moreover, 11 AFU UAVs were shot down close to Verkhnekamenka, Zaliman (LPR), and Pokrovskoye (DPR).
Special Operation, 31 May 2023, Main; pub. 20:35⚡️
▪️ #Ukraine is set to go on the offensive this summer and can expect additional arms supplies from the #US soon, the White House said;
▪️ The #US is not encouraging attacks on Russian territory because it does not want the conflict in #Ukraine to turn into a “war against the West”, the White House said;
▪️ Russian aviation destroyed Ukraine’s last warship Yuri Olefirenko on 29 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) said on Wednesday;
▪️ Russia’s air defence systems intercepted one Storm Shadow cruise missile and 12 HIMARS missiles, and destroyed 11 Ukrainian drones, MoD said;
▪️ Work to improve the effectiveness of #Russia’s air defence system will continue, presidential spokesman Peskov said;
▪️ #IAEA staff will continue to monitor whether armaments are located, shelled or fired from #ZNPP, IAEA Director General Grossi said;
▪️ Russian Federation has no plans to deploy military contingents and military equipment designed for offensive operations at #Zaporozhye NPP, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko said;
▪️ Only those forces that are necessary to protect the #ZNPP from attacks by #Ukraine, as well as to eliminate their possible consequences, he added.
ðŸ”¹Throughout the day, Ukrainian formations attacked civilian targets in frontline and rear settlements of #Russia. 5 civilians were killed during the day, at least 25 more were injured of varying severity.
ðŸ”¹Last night, UAVs of the AFU tried to attack two oil refineries in the #Krasnodar territory. At the #Afipsky Refinery, a fire engulfed a fuel oil distillation unit, damage was avoided at the enterprise near #Ilsk.
ðŸ”¹Along with this, a difficult situation persists in #Shebekino in the #Belgorod region. During the day, the city came under enemy fire several times. Residential buildings and infrastructure facilities have been damaged.
ðŸ´☠️ The Ukrainian Regime is already shelling the town of #Shebekino in the #Belgorod region on an almost daily basis. Previously, the AFU used to hit the industrial zone more frequently, but now they have decided to give terror (https://t.me/readovkanews/59868) with “Grads” to civilians. Today the attacks (https://t.me/readovkanews/59860) hit the city centre – peaceful streets, residential buildings, cars, kindergartens and schools. At the moment it is dangerous to be in the city and this can only be resolved by moving deeper into #Ukraine.
⚔️ The Situation on the Fronts over the past Day:
ðŸ”¹#Svatovo – #Kremennaya Direction:
▪️ Our fighters are attacking AFU positions near #Masyutovka. Our troops also attacked in the area of #Novoselovskoye and #Stelmakhovka.
➖ There are reports that Russian paratroopers have managed (https://t.me/cmiye/10811) to advance 2km in the #Kremennaya forests, which means a rapid coverage of #Grigorovka, #Serebryanka and #Belogorovka, in which fierce battles are taking place.
▪️ The RF Armed Forces conducted a successful attack south of #Kamenka and occupied enemy positions northeast of #Avdeyevka and knocked out (https://t.me/readovkanews/59875) AFU from positions in the #Krasnogorovka area.
➖ In #Maryinka, our troops are storming the western outskirts and covering the fighters’ positions with artillery fire.
ðŸ’¥ The Russian Ministry of Defence said (https://t.me/readovkanews/59874) that the Ukrainian landing ship Yuriy Olefirenko was destroyed in the port of #Odessa on the night of 29 May. It is the last large ship at the disposal of the 404 navy. The ship was seized by the Russian army in 2014, but was later handed over to the Ukrainian side as it had no combat value. With the start of the special operation the ship ended up in #Nikolayev, where it was used (https://t.me/readovkaru/3437) as a floating MLRS battery shelling our fighters on the Nikolayevskaya Spit.
On the Intensity of Frontline Areas Shelling⚡️
ðŸ—“ Over the past two weeks, the intensity of the Belgorod region border territories shelling has significantly increased. Yesterday the region bypassed the #Donetsk agglomeration in terms of the number of incoming AFU ammunition.
At the same time, explosions continue to rattle in several districts of the #Belgorod region today. Seven civilians have been injured and one person has died alone in the last two days.
The situation in the Donetsk agglomeration has remained unchanged for a long time. The territory is under regular enemy shelling at any time of the day.
At the same time, as a rule, the AFU is firing from the west and northwest at several districts of the DPR capital and suburbs. To reduce the number of attacks, it is necessary to knock out the enemy from the #Avdeyevka fortified area, which at the moment seems to be a difficult task.
The situation in the #Belgorod region is somewhat different. There are less dense strikes on the number of shells fired, but there are many times more shelled settlements. These are both border villages and the capital of the subject, #Belgorod.
The region largely follows the path of #Donbass, where Ukrainian formations increased the intensity of chaotic strikes on peaceful cities, taking advantage of their impunity. A similar situation is developing in the #Bryansk and #Kursk regions, as well as in the territories liberated by the RF Armed Forces.
We have already written more than once about solutions to the problems of frontline territories (https://t.me/rybar/47772). If the current state of affairs persists, residents will continue to suffer under massive enemy shelling, and the Ukrainian command will continue to carry out all kinds of provocations.
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