Battlefield Ukraine to Battlefield Earth
Our insight from September 4 was confirmed. Due to the failure of three stages of the offensive, ZeErmak decided to continue the creeping offensive in the fall-winter, in order not to admit failure, which would cost them “power” and ratings.
The goal is to take Bakhmut or Tokmak, as the military themselves say, but according to our data, this will not be realistically accomplished without strengthening the army in manpower and equipment. In fact, the OP’s task is to reach some city without even recapturing it; this will be presented as a victory.
This message was voiced with the aim of stalling for time and trying to create a good “face against a bad game” in order to negotiate further funding from partners.
There are now signs that the U.S. may be pressuring Ukraine to agree to a cease-fire, with a “freeze” along the lines of the decades-old Korean settlement. But all this would do would be to “kick the can down the road”—possibly until after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, likely to be preceded by elections in Ukraine in March. There are no signs that the U.S. is ready to concede a Russian victory involving the redrawing of the European security apparatus with Russia a respected party. The Ukrainian government speaks of a “long-term” conflict lasting decades. So there is no way to aver that the war in Ukraine is ending or to speculate about the next phase.
Our source reports that Western experts advise Zelensky to abandon further offensive. Admit that they were unable to break through the Russian defenses. Focus almost all your forces on your defense so as not to lose even more.
They also advised Ze to abandon the repeated Bakhmutov meat grinder 2.0, which he has been implementing since the moment he lost his “fortune”.
No one from the office tells the Ukrainian people what it will cost, it will be very expensive.
Our source is confident that Zelensky will not listen to them again, which will worsen the situation at the front even more, as was the case in the first battle for the fort.
We are watching…
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Ukrainian forces actively use this piece of land as a logistical base for reconnaissance and sabotage groups. Over the past few days, they have been transporting ammunition, fuel, and food there, preparing for new raids on the Crimean Peninsula.
Well, my guys conveyed very good news. The settlement of Orekhovo-Vasilevo was completely abandoned by the enemy. At the moment, our army is clearing the village .
Paratroopers of the 106th division confirm the capture of Orekhovo-Vasilievka and the beginning of clearing the village!
The situation at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR : Our soldiers are rebuilding the defense system during a period of calm
▪️Members of the Vostok battalion report the situation on this section of the front :
➖”An unexpected respite makes it possible to put a fairly damaged economy in order. At the height of the battles, all they had time to do was plug holes: either communications would fail, then transport, then anti-drone equipment, but most importantly, the minefields were damaged… The entire established system was subjected to overload – now every quiet day is devoted to recovery. We don’t believe that the enemy will sit subdued for a long time – they simply won’t let us rest for long.”
Another enemy attack is reported, which was stopped by our army. Several foreign armored fighting vehicles and a tank are on fire. Enemy infantry is being cleared and destroyed in the Verbovoy area.
The enemy once again used HIMARs in the village of Verbovoye, targeting residential buildings.
Every day the enemy attacks our forward positions with tanks, cannon artillery and cluster munitions.
Kamikaze drones do not spare the forward and rear positions.
An enemy quadcopter-type UAV regularly cruises over Verbovoye, dropping VOG-17 and VOG-25 and other explosives with bearings and small fragments for a larger destruction area.
Northeast of Rabotino our fighters are still holding the line. The enemy is using a Polish 60mm mortar and 82, 120 caliber mortars, cannon artillery, tanks and cluster munitions.
At night, enemy homemade UAVs with RPG drops and mines are actively flying over us.
ATGM players in this area destroyed two units of enemy armored vehicles that were en route to reinforce enemy forces.
Near Rabotino, the enemy was observed using phosphorus and incendiary ammunition, and they are also actively using cluster-type ammunition.
Today, this town was repeatedly shelled by AFU. The enemy targeted civilians, resulting in both casualties and fatalities. Many were rescued thanks to our military, who happened to be nearby at the time and rushed to their aid.
“It happened near a shop where many civilians were peacefully buying groceries. There was an explosion, after which our commander gave the order – to save the civilians at all costs,” a serviceman who was assisting locals in finding cover from enemy fire told us.
According to him, there were a total of six attacks in different parts of the city. The fighters didn’t hesitate and immediately began evacuating the population within this radius. All residents started moving to basements and shelters.
Footage shows soldiers from the 3rd Battalion of the 71st Regiment helping the wounded reach medical centers by stopping passing cars and asking drivers for assistance.
ðŸ”»The situation in the occupied part of the Kherson region is becoming more and more interesting. The Armed Forces of Ukraine with the forces of the Omaha tactical group continues to gain a foothold on Kozatsky Island , despite the losses.
Yesterday, the observation post of the 131st reconnaissance battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed by an artillery strike from the Russian Armed Forces. However, by evening, in the southwestern part of the island, Ukrainian units again began to equip positions.
The activity of enemy reconnaissance groups is covered by artillerymen and mortars, who fire at the front line with all means. Russian fighters respond with artillery and air strikes.
ðŸ”»At the same time, the transfer of units of the Marine Corps Command of the Ukrainian Navy continues to the Kherson region. To date, 6,870 people , 46 tanks, 223 armored fighting vehicles and eight artillery pieces have been deployed to the direction.
And that is not all. So far, only formations of the 35th , 36th and 37th Marine Brigades have arrived. It is also expected that 38 infantry infantry fighting vehicles and seven artillery battalions will appear. All these connections were removed from the Vremevsky site , which is why there is now a lull there.
❗️Judging by the concentration of forces, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have highlighted the offensive across the Dnieper to reach Crimea . Therefore, attempts continue to occupy the island zone of the Dnieper to provide a bridgehead.
The most likely direction should be Novaya Kakhovka . But the implementation of the plan is possible only with a simultaneous attack on the Orekhovsky sector , as well as from the Black Sea .
Given the increasing activity of the Ukrainian landing force off the coast of the peninsula, preparations are in full swing. Moreover, at the Rabotino – Verbovoe line, the AFU are again preparing for an assault.
The AFU is gathering a strike force on the Kherson Region, 35th , 36th and 37th Marine Brigades, and soon, the 38th Marine Brigade, as all of these brigades were partially (or nearly entirely destroyed) on the Vremenka Saliant. As has been pointed out, there is a lull in this direction.
ðŸ”»However, contrary to the claims of other channels that this is a serious strike force, I believe that since the AFU has transported 4 of these brigades, of which, all of them have lost 70% of their combat capability has been reduced, that these men will be used to consolidate positions on the Right bank, but since their combat capability has been significantly reduced, it will be very difficult to use these brigades to make meaningful attack against the Kherson and Crimea axis.
ðŸ”»But we know that the enemy will try to do this more seriously in the future – almost all of the SOF Naval Brigades are in this direction and they attack regularly, but even they are suffering losses. So these brigades, who are obviously orientated in naval attacks; since they are marine brigades, means there will be an increase of attacks on the islands of the Right Bank of the Dniepr.
ðŸ”» In order to reduce the threat, the VKS are dropping more then 15 FAB bombs on exposed AFU positions, fuel and lubricant depots, and military convoys of the enemy. This has already proven successful in reducing the mechanised threat from this direction. Also, some channels speculate that some PMC “Wagner” have arrived in this direction.
ðŸ“Œ At full combat potential, these brigades would have nearly 20,000 men accumulated; but, only around 6,000 arrived in the Kherson Region.
Conducting surveillance of one of our points Kherson region, we noticed a group of dry land workers of up to 15 people in motion. Taking the lead while they were moving along the paths between the houses, we fired a shot and the whole group ran into the cellar next to the nearest ‘building’.
Having taken refuge there, they decided that after shooting a little, we would stop, but that was not the case. Having hit once, their ammo, which was lying under the wall above, ignited. The second shot hit the target, but the cellar remained untouched. Before the 3rd shot, we zoomed out the camera a little (note that there is not a single whole house nearby. Just ruins) and placed it clearly under the visor!
According to radio interception from 14 aircraft, only 4 remained alive.
The assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including the 12th Special Forces brigade, consisting of Azov militants, are suffering losses.
The “sky” is helping the fighters on the ground – the bomber aircraft of the “Center” group destroyed enemy command and observation posts in the Serebryanka area.
ðŸ”¹In #Kherson Direction, the AFU is building up reserves and more often trying to throw small groups onto islands. One each was covered by our forces on #Kazatsky Island and in the area of #Alyoshkinsky Island. Also ours strike with aerial bombs on accumulations of enemy reserves and equipment. ⚠️Note: According to Rybar the AFU is gaining footholds on #Kazatsky Island and moving massive reinforcements to #Kherson region.
ðŸ”¹In #Zaporozhye Direction, the AFU managed to improve their positions near #Novofyodorovka. Near #Verbovoye they attacked with armoured vehicles, our forces destroyed two tanks, the rest have withdrawn so far, but the AFU do not stop attacking, they are hitting our positions with HIMARS. And at #Rabotino our army is counterattacking from the south and west, they are trying to seize the initiative, there are successes. Also our groups are entering the rear of the AFU in the #Orekhov section and directing aircraft for strikes with FABs. All day under AFU strikes was #Tokmak, which Kiev now calls the target of the “counteroffensive”. A part of the missiles have been shot down by air defences, but there were also hits, one person was killed, at least 11 wounded,
ðŸ”¹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, there is a lull, and the enemy is not taking active action on the ground.
ðŸ”¹In #Donetsk Direction, our forces are striking at AFU positions in #Avdeyevka and its vicinity. There are counterbattles near #Severnoye and #Opytnoye, with no changes in the frontline.
ðŸ”¹In #Bakhmut Direction, fighting continues on the southern flank at the #Andreyevka – #Kleshcheyevka line. Near the railway line and along the forest belts, the struggle is going on for every metre. The situation is changing every hour, positions are changing hands, but at #Kleshcheyevka our forces still had to withdraw behind the railway line. On the northern flank, the situation is more positive. Our forces managed to make some progress on the outskirts of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka.
ðŸ”¹In #Kupyansk Direction, without significant changes, the work of aviation and artillery on the AFU accumulations in the rear continues.
ðŸ˜ŒThe Kiev regime carried out shell terror on civilians in Tokmak, purposefully shelling residential areas. One death and 11 wounded are known, including three children. Soldiers of the Russian army helped locals escape right under enemy fire.
⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:
In the Kupyansky sector there are battles in the area of Sinkovka , Petropavlovka and Dvurechnaya. The Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattacked at Novoegorovka , but key heights are currently in the gray zone. At Torsky there are no changes, as in Serebryansky Forest. Nevertheless, ours attacked in the Belogorovka area.
⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction
Information is received that our paratroopers from the 106th division have taken control of Orekhovo-Vasilievka and are conducting a clean-up operation there. Encounter fighting continues in Kleshcheevka , as does Andreevka , still in the gray zone.
⚫️ Zaporozhye direction
The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to get closer to Novoprokopovka and Verbovoy , but this is not enough, since Russian soldiers continue to hold the defense in both settlements. Meanwhile, on the Vremevsky ledge , militants are trying to break through to Staromlynovka.
ðŸ’¥Russian anti-aircraft gunners shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 in the Kleshcheevka area.
The situation in the northern Black Sea region remains tense.
To the west of the Crimean coast, a Ukrainian unmanned boat was sunk during another attempt to attack. Russian troops, in turn, worked on enemy positions on Zmeiny Island, which is used as a transshipment base for raids on Crimea.
Meanwhile, in the Kherson direction , Ukrainian formations continue to transfer infantry groups to the islands on the Dnieper. Thus, Russian troops are trying to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from gaining a foothold on Kozatsky Island and are striking enemy strongholds in this area.
While a certain calm remains in the Zaporozhye direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not abandoning attempts to break through the Russian defense in the Soledar direction .
In addition, today the Ukrainian Armed Forces actively attacked the border regions: the city of Kursk , the Khalino airfield and border villages came under attack from Ukrainian forces. The enemy also carried out massive attacks on Tokmak in the Zaporozhye region .
Military expert Boris Rozhin on the main points during the special military operation of the Russian Federation on the territory of the former Ukraine per day by 19.15 Moscow time on September 24, 2023, especially for the Voenkor Kotenok channel @voenkorKotenok :
The enemy is increasing pressure in the area of Verbovoy and Novoprokopovka , trying to break the defense line of the Russian Armed Forces to the south and southeast of Rabotino .
The United States set the task for Zelensky’s gang to take Tokmak at any cost in the coming months, for which purpose several brigades transferred from other sectors of the front were concentrated in this direction, which replaced a number of battered strategic reserve brigades that suffered losses in the battles of June-September 2023.
The enemy is in a hurry to achieve results before the thaw. Today, Tokmak was actively shelled throughout the day.
The enemy in this direction is exhausted and is rotating to resume intensive offensive operations.
The tasks are still the same – to try to break through to Staromlynovka either through Zavitne Bazhannya or from Priyutnoye . Here the enemy, after previous failures, is now setting more modest goals.
The main efforts are now focused on the Orekhovsky and Artemovsky directions.
Fierce battles continue for the Kleshcheevka-Andreevka-Kurdyumovka line: the enemy continues attacks in the direction of the railway in order to ensure control over Andreevka and Kleshcheevka , having achieved the pushing back of the Russian Armed Forces south of Artemovsk . Andreevka is still in the gray zone.
In Kleshcheevka , the enemy controls the southern part and part of the center of the village. Both sides continue to move reinforcements and exchange attacks. The enemy is also preparing for possible attacks to the north-west of the city.
The enemy has stabilized the situation in the Kupyansk area, using transferred reserves, and continues to fight in the area of Dvurechnaya , Masyutovka , Sinkovka and Petropavlovka .
There is no significant progress towards Kupyansk yet.
To the west of Svatovo, the Russian Armed Forces continued to put pressure on the enemy defenses, occupying several defensive positions.
In the forest area west of Kremennaya , positional battles continue without significant progress. Terna and Torsky also have no changes.
Zin Note: Oddly, Boris Rozhin doesn’t confirm the capture of Orekhovo-Vasilievka here. That could just be an unfortunate timing issue. Perhaps he wrote this report and then went to lunch before it was taken?
NO BREAKTHROUGH As Ukraine Hits An Iron Wall
Ukrainian forces enter Novoprokopivka | Ukraine front update [24 September 2023]
WAR UPDATE: Ukranian Recon ENTERS Novoprokopivka For The First Time
▫️In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces, in cooperation with aviation and artillery, have repelled one attack by the AFU 110th Mechanised Brigade near Vesyoloye (DPR).
▫️As a result of the enemy fire defeat, the Russian troops improved the tactical position by decisive counterattack actions.
▫️A total of 4 enemy attacks have been repelled close to Krasnogorovka, Maryinka, Khimik, and Vesyoloye (DPR).
▫️The enemy losses were up to 305 servicemen, 2 AFVs, 7 motor vehicles, and 1 U.S.-manufacturer M777 artillery system.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction, aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems of the Russian grouping of troops have inflicted a fire defeat on manpower and hardware clusters of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Rabotino (Zaporozhye).
▫️The enemy losses were up to 35 servicemen, 1 IFV, and 3 motor vehicles.
▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare the enemy lost 1 U.S.-manufacturer M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, 2 D-30 guns, 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and 1 Msta-B howitzer.
▫️In Krasny Liman direction, as a result of competent and well-coordinated actions by units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, 2 attacks by assault groups of the 67th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU have been repelled close to Serebryansky forestry.
▫️Ground-Attack and Army aviation and artillery have hit manpower and hardware concentration areas of the 63rd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, the 100th Territorial Defence Brigade, the 5th National Guard Brigade, and the 12th Special Purpose Brigade of the AFU close to Torskoye and Grigorovka (DPR), Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR), and Serebryansky forestry.
▫️The enemy losses were 50 servicemen, 2 AFVs, 2 pickup trucks, and 1 D-20 howitzer.
▫️In South Donetsk direction, aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces have hit manpower and hardware concentration areas of the 38th Marine Brigade, the 56th Motor Infantry Brigade of the AFU, and the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Urozhaynoye, Staromayorskoye (DPR), and Malinovka (Zaporozhye).
▫️The enemy losses were up to 110 servicemen, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, 3 motor vehicles, and 2 D-20 guns.
▫️In Kupyansk direction, aviation and artillery by the Zapad Group of Forces have struck manpower and hardware of 14th, 92nd mechanised and 25th airborne brigades of the AFU and the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade close to Berestovoye, Sinkovka, and Kislovka (Kharkov), and Novosyolovskoye (LPR).
▫️The enemy lost over 20 servicemen, 2 motor vehicles, 1 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, 1 Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, and 1 field ammunition depot were destroyed near Berestovoye (Kharkov).
▫️In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were up to 40 servicemen and 2 motor vehicles.
▫️In addition, in the course of counter-battery warfare, 1 U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, 1 D-30 howitzer, 1 122mm Partizan artisanal MLRS, and 1 field ammunition depot of the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade near Shlyakhovoye (Kherson).
▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have struck a command and observation post of the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade near Berislav (Kherson), one signal node of the 77th AFU Airmobile Brigade near Chasov Yar (DPR), as well as enemy manpower and military hardware in 109 areas.
▫️Air defence means have shot down one Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter near Kleshcheevka (DPR).
▫️3 HARM anti-radar missiles and 8 HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles have been intercepted.
▫️15 UAVs have been destroyed close to Gorlovka and Stepnoye (DPR), Kuzyomovka (LPR), Samoilovka, Chervonogorka, Lyubimovka and Ocherevatoye (Zaporozhye) and Kazachyi lageri (Kherson).
Russian Defence Ministry
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