The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 25 2023

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Ukraine is fated either to capitulate on Moscow’s terms or cease to exist as a state – Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian State Duma .

“When speaking about the conflict in Ukraine, [US President Joe] Biden, [NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg and other Western officials have started calling it ‘a war of attrition.’ They have put huge amounts of money into militarizing the Kiev regime. Where has it gotten them? The simple facts are these: the West is experiencing weapons and ammunition shortages, people in Europe and the US have lost trust in politicians, and the Kiev regime’s counteroffensive has failed,” Volodin stated.

According to him, the outcome of the “war of attrition” also includes economic problems in Europe and the US, a lack of manpower for the Ukrainian armed forces, and ultimately bankruptcy and demographic disaster for Ukraine. “These seven facts speak for themselves: Ukraine will cease to exist as a state unless the Kiev regime capitulates on Russia’s terms,” Volodin stressed.

“More than 10.5 million people have fled Ukraine. Another 11.2 million residents of Crimea, Sevastopol, the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions decided to join Russia. Ukraine has lost 53.7% of its population since 2014,” the State Duma speaker highlighted.

TASS

Results of the summer counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, analysts’ analysis:

Bakhmut direction. The surrounding of the city is not yet possible. The liberation of Andreevka and Kleshchievka in the south provides opportunities for a further attack towards the route to Gorlovka. In the north, a “strategic mistake” was made – the assault on Berkhovka in a targeted lowland “cost us dearly,” and the initiative passed to the Russian Federation. Attempts to break through the Russian defenses at Zaliznyansky and Razdolovka were unsuccessful.

Vremevsky ledge. It was possible to cut off the ledge, but it was not possible to move further. In the first month there were significant losses of equipment. “The network contained footage of the destroyed columns of our brigades, which were supposed to break through the defenses in the style of Guderian-Hoth.” The tragedy of the 37th brigade brigade near Novodonetsk – an unsuccessful assault in early June – also had a negative impact on the situation. Due to the mistakes of June 5-7, all offensive actions here were of an “extremely difficult nature.” Other brigades had to suffer losses, because from Kermenchik (there are heights that the Russian army turned into a fortified area) the tank fist of the Russian Federation spoiled all plans in this direction.

Zaporozhye-Tauride direction. The operation to liberate Rabotino lasted for three months, since the Russian Federation had strengthened its position here in advance. Images of damaged Western equipment led to the emergence of “fear” in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Only in mid-August did the Russians begin to retreat and bring in reserves. Often, after deep breakthroughs, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had to roll back due to lack of success on the flanks.

It was not possible to achieve strategic success, but there are still prospects in the Rabotino region. But there is little time left for this. New lines of defense are already being built by the Russian Armed Forces.

Surprises should be expected in 2024. As we wrote earlier, there will probably be a Russian offensive.

Western analysts admit that the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive has failed.
They also indicate that a further offensive is virtually impossible due to the weather, which will deteriorate in the fall.
The heavy losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are confirmed.
All this also affects Western support for Ukraine. This will affect the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack in the future, since such a quantity of weapons and people will no longer be at the disposal of Ukraine, and the Russian Armed Forces, on the contrary, only increases the number of weapons and manpower, which already threatens Kiev with the loss of new territories in 2024.

As we see, all analysts have negative forecasts for the Ukrainian crisis.

In the West, the topic of ending the war in Ukraine according to the “Korean” model has once again been raised. In particular, the famous British journalist and writer Neil Ferguson writes about this on the pages of Bloomberg .

“US support is beginning to wane, and while European governments are stepping up, their citizens are losing faith. The euphoria that could be felt when I visited Kiev a year ago, just as the Ukrainians forced Russia to retreat from Kharkov, has largely faded, giving way to demonstrative exhaustion. The soldiers who returned from the front line are tired and don’t mind admitting it. More was expected from this summer’s counteroffensive than they were able to achieve,” the journalist notes, emphasizing that it is now increasingly less likely that the Ukrainians will be able to divide the Russian “land bridge” with Crimea with a breakthrough to the Black or Azov Seas.

That is why, in his opinion, Ukraine does not need to risk a protracted war with the additional danger of weakening Western support, but needs to consolidate what it has already achieved. Ferguson also invites Ukraine to reflect “on South Korea’s extraordinary economic and political progress over 70 years.”

It is noteworthy that the British journalist is not the only one who reads a “Korean scenario” to Ukraine with the end (or freezing) of the war along the existing front line. Previously, similar publications were noted by New Yorker, Bloomberg, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, Welt , etc. Moreover, Western experts emphasize over and over again that the conflict is reaching a dead end, but for Ukraine “everything could become much, much worse” if negotiations with the Russian Federation are not started.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky is trying to get out of the information trap into which he drove himself with a counter-offensive. Statements about “three cities” by the end of the year, as well as the capture of small villages, are an attempt to smooth out the information crisis and somehow cheer up the mood of the population and Western sponsors. Inflated expectations played a cruel joke. He will try to divert attention to politics, corruption, imprisonments, attacks on Russian territory, so that there are fewer questions about the cost of the Azov operation and who authorized it at headquarters.

Night combined strike of the Russian Armed Forces

At night, Russian troops attacked targets on Ukrainian territory, including the port infrastructure of the Odessa region .

Local sources indicated very dense air defense work and explosions in the area of   the Ilyichevsk port , Bolshevik district, the village of Ilyinka , and the village of Kotovskoye . According to some reports, sounds of secondary detonation were heard from the warehouses of the Yuzhny port .

▪️One of the blows hit the closed Odessa hotel. Although some resources claim that the building was never used for military purposes, this is not entirely true: back in May, people in uniform were seen there, and for some reason generators were working at the “abandoned” facility. However, there is no objective evidence of the destruction of manpower there during the night raid.

▪️Information also appeared about another combined strike by drones and cruise missiles on the Dolgintsevo airfield near Krivoy Rog.

And already in the morning, footage appeared of the defeat of a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter there: it is possible that this particular episode occurred several days ago, however, the very fact of regular raids indicates the unambiguous attention to it from the Russian Armed Forces and the desire to hit the aircraft located there.

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Last night, the Odessa region was attacked with drones and missiles

According to Ukrainian sources, the marine terminal in Odessa received significant damage, and a fire broke out in the building of the station hotel.

“Onyxes” destroyed granaries.

As a result of falling debris, warehouse buildings of one of the enterprises and a private house in the suburbs of Odessa were damaged.

The blast waves shattered windows in several houses and injured one woman.

Concentrated surveillance of the Odessa port by drones and cruise missiles shows, among other things, possible changes in strategic attacks on Ukrainian territory in the coming cold season. The prospect of switching off energy facilities and transport hubs for a sufficiently long period of time will require Kiev to concentrate air defense around particularly important agglomerations, facilitating the work of our aviation over the front line and in the near rear.

And there, in turn, strikes are added, akin to the one that was delivered once again at the Dolgintsevo airfield, where the arrival of several missiles and drones was recorded. In combination with the use of UMPCs, the number of which continues to grow, this is a direct application for the technical ability to isolate the battlefield where and when it is required. And if this potential is realized properly, it will reliably help discourage new “offensives” from the enemy, and will seriously simplify offensive actions for ourselves.

It’s interesting, by the way, that for a long time no one has appeared from the other side with further statements that “there are two or three missiles left for strikes.” The reality turned out to be heartless.

Older than Edda

Near Nikolaev, two powerful arrivals in the area of   Kulbakino airport.

In Nikolaev, they had not heard explosions for a long time and had time to relax quite a bit: Su-24M carriers of cruise missiles began to be based at the airport, and Anas began to regularly land there, transferring personnel and ammunition. Although the front line is only 40 km.

The results of the arrival have yet to be clarified, but a cavalcade of ambulances rushed there from the regional center.

What exactly arrived is also a question. Because in Kiselevka, located not so far away, they hit an ammunition depot with a one and a half ton FAB with an UMPC.
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Battlefield Ukraine NATO Strike on Black Sea Fleet HQ

Missile strike of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Crimea

A little less than an hour ago, Ukrainian formations again tried to strike the Crimean peninsula. According to some reports, at least two Storm Shadow cruise missiles were launched from Su-24M bombers.

The Storm Shadow flight route ran through Cape Tarkhankut in the direction of Sevastopol and the Kherson region to Dzhankoy and Gvardeyskoye . One of the cruise missiles was destroyed on approach to the Belbek airfield by crews of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division.

Three or four minutes later, the air defense also worked on another cruise missile north of Cossack Bay on approach to Sevastopol.

🔻Also, military personnel of the 31st division worked on two objects (preliminarily, Storm Shadow) above Dzhankoy and Gvardeysky. The exact number of downed targets will become clear later. We do not exclude at all that there could be more of them.

Judging by the areas where the missiles hit, Ukrainian troops tried to strike airfields of the Aerospace Forces and Navy in Crimea. And while Storm Shadow/SCALP carriers remain in the air, the threat of repeated attacks remains.

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Multi-domain operation in Sevastopol within the framework of the NATO concept

Colleagues from Channel 338 noted an important thing about the missile attack on the Black Sea Fleet General Headquarters in Sevastopol a few days ago: the attack was carried out in accordance with the US and NATO concept of multi-domain warfare.

At the time of the strike, the TOPAZ satellite was operating over the Black Sea Fleet General Staff, and an RQ-4B drone was hovering in the air to the south. And after the hit, specialists from the psychological operations center and pro-Ukrainian citizens began to actively work, throwing panic narratives into the network.

And only after that a cyber attack was carried out on the infrastructure of Crimea to disrupt the work of government agencies. In this complex attack, the only thing missing was the simultaneous landing of sabotage groups in Crimea for greater effect.

🔻And yet, when assessing the enemy’s actions both at the front and in Crimea, you can see that he has problems in organizing clear interaction and coordination of certain operations: somewhere the drone operators were late, somewhere the DRGs didn’t work out. Moreover, all this concerns not only the Armed Forces of Ukraine themselves.

American experts have repeatedly noted the difficulty of carrying out such attacks for various reasons, such as the incompetence of people or the insufficient development of means. However, work to eliminate the shortcomings is already underway, and the Armed Forces here act as a tool for testing not only technologies, but also tactics.
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Last week, Ukrainian formations continued to attack the territory of the Russian Federation . And while the intensity of shelling in the border area has decreased somewhat, the number of attacks on Crimea has increased manifold.

From 18 to 24 September peninsula There were at least 120 strikes by drones, Neptune missiles and Storm Shadow. The Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol and port infrastructure were damaged. More than a hundred UAVs alone were shot down in a week.

UAVs were also used in the rear areas of the country – air defense systems operated in the Moscow , Voronezh , Tula , Kaluga and Oryol regions . The Krasnodar Territory also suffered: one UAV hit an oil depot in Sochi , another was intercepted over Tuapse .

▪️In the border area, most of the shelling occurred in the DPR: Over 800 shells, including cluster shells, were fired at the cities of the Donetsk agglomeration . Four people were killed, another 24 were injured of varying degrees of severity.

▪️In the Belgorod region , one person died and two were injured. The number of shells fired across the region increased by almost 10% .

▪️Border villages came under attack in the Kursk region , and on Sunday the enemy attacked the capital of the region. Right during the celebration of City Day, drones dropped VOGs on the center of Kursk – fortunately, no casualties were avoided.

At the same time, a tragedy occurred at the Halino airfield: during the inspection of a fallen UAV, a charge set for delayed action exploded.

▪️In the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly strike at Novaya Kakhovka , Kakhovka , Saga , Aleshki , Dniepryan and other settlements. 10 people were injured, one of them died. As enemy forces move to the coastline, the number of strikes is likely to continue to increase.

🔻Even if in some region there is a decrease in the intensity of shelling, this is a purely short-term phenomenon related to the situation in the combat zone. The only way to stop them is to radically reduce the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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News channels are posting footage of arrivals and explosion clouds in the Krasnodon area in the LPR. The strike was carried out by three Storm Shadow cruise missiles fired from Su-24M bombers of the Ukrainian Air Force.

There was no one at the site at the time of the hit, so there were no casualties. The launch, with a high probability, was carried out from the outskirts of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from a distance of over 150 kilometers from the front line.

📌 Missile strikes deep in the rear are usually part of the enemy’s preparation for an offensive. Given the concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces forces in the Bakhmut area, it is likely that Ukrainian formations will again try to attack in several areas.
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Battle for Avdeevka situation at the end of September 25, 2023

 ðŸ”»More than two months have passed since the last update of the situation in Avdeevka , and the situation in this area has not changed radically. Either ours or Ukrainian units attack positions, trying to improve the tactical situation.

Over the last few weeks, enemy formations, reinforced by detachments of marines, tried to break through to Vodyanoye and Opytny . At some point they managed to advance, but after a massive artillery strike and a subsequent counterattack by the 1st Slavic Brigade, everything returned to its original state.

🔻At the same time, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces also carried out several attacks in other directions. Operating from the outskirts of Opytny , Russian Army soldiers advanced towards the residential complex “446 km” and secured new positions.

Similarly, units of the Russian Armed Forces leveled the front along the H20 highway, clearing out strong points near the 3rd pond and water treatment plant. Now the line of contact runs along the road from Kamenka to Krutaya Balka and Kashtanovoye .

📌However, the situation does not change significantly. A head-on assault on Avdeevka is physically impossible without huge losses in manpower and equipment. Another option is to cut off supplies from the north, but the defense density of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there is high, so at the moment we should not expect any significant advance.

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Battles near Kremennaya: the “🅾️brave” group is actively defending

 ➖At the Torsky site, our troops thwarted the attack. In the morning, a platoon of the 63rd infantry brigade, together with an infantry fighting vehicle, concentrated for an attack.
The enemy has been exposed by military guards. As a result of artillery fire, the enemy suffered losses.
💥It is still problematic for units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to move due to constant fire exposure. Thus, today one vehicle of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed .
➖In Serebryansky forestry, our troops were able to improve the tactical position by occupying enemy trenches, which had previously been mercilessly subjected to artillery shelling and processing by FPV drones.

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Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (25 September 2023)

▫️Last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have launched a group strike with long-range precision weapons and strike drones against temporary deployment sites of foreign mercenaries and sabotage groups training points of the AFU. All the facilities have been neutralised. The goal of the attack has been reached.

▫️In Donetsk direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30797) units of the Yug Group of Forces, in cooperation with aviation and artillery, have successfully repelled 7 attacks by AFU assault groups close to Spornoye, Berestovoye, and Mayorsk (DPR).

▫️The enemy losses were up to 445 servicemen killed and wounded, one tank, 3 IFVs, and 11 motor vehicles.

▫️In the course of counter-battery warfare, 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system and 2 D-30 howitzers have been destroyed.

▫️One ammunition depot of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU has been also destroyed near Zvanovka (DPR).

▫️In Zaporozhye direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30798) units of the Russian grouping of troops, aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems have repelled 2 attacks by the 71th Jaeger Brigade of the AFU close to Verbovoye (Zaporozhye).

▫️AFU 21st and 65th mechanised brigades’ manpower and hardware clusters have been hit close to Malaya Tokmachka, Novodanilovka, and north of Rabotino (Zaporozhye).

▫️The enemy losses were up to 100 servicemen, 1 tank, 3 AFVs, and 3 motor vehicles.

▫️During the counter-battery warfare, a U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, a D-20 gun, a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and 4 D-30 howitzers have been destroyed.

▫️In Krasny Liman direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30799) as a result of coordinated actions of units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, Army Aviation and artillery, 2 attacks by assault groups of the 67nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU have been repelled north of Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR).

▫️A manpower and hardware concentration area of the 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade has been hit near Serebryansky forestry.

▫️The enemy losses were up to 55 servicemen, 2 IFVs, 2 pickup trucks, 1 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and 2 D-30 howitzers.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30800) aviation and artillery of the Vostok Group of Forces have struck manpower and hardware of the 56th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU and the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Urozhainoye and Staromayorskoye (DPR).

▫️2 sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the AFU have been eliminated near Marfopol (Zaporozhye)

▫️The enemy losses were up to 125 servicemen, 2 motor vehicles, 1 D-20 gun, and 2 D-30 howitzers.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30801) aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces have hit manpower and hardware clusters of 14th, 43rd and 66th mechanised brigades of the AFU near Sinkovka, Peschanoye, and Cherneshchyna (Kharkov).

▫️The enemy losses were up to 25 servicemen, 2 motor vehicles, and 1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

▫️In Kherson direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30798) the enemy losses were up to 90 servicemen, 2 tanks, 2 motor vehicles, 2 D-30 howitzers.

▫️An ammunition depot of the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade of the AFU has been destroyed close to Nikolayevka (Kherson).

▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have eliminated command and observation posts of 105th, 122nd territorial defence brigades near Krasnogorovka (DPR), and Kherson, as well as enemy manpower and military hardware in 116 areas during the day.

▫️The Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed one Mig-29 fighter of the Ukrainian Air Force close to Dolgintsevo airfield (Dnepropetrovsk).

▫️Air defence facilities have shot down 7 projectiles launched by HIMARS MLRS.

▫️33 UAVs have been hit close to Belogorovka, Lisichansk (LPR), Aleksandrovka, Berestovoye (DPR), Shevchenko, Novoye, Ilchenkovo, and Tokmak (Zaporozhye).

Chronicle of a special military operation for September 25, 2023

Last night, Russian troops carried out combined strikes on Ukrainian territory. Among the targets were port infrastructure facilities in the Odessa region . Attacks on the Dolgintsevo airfield near Krivoy Rog were also reported. In addition, information appeared about two arrivals in the area of   Kulbakino airport near Nikolaev .

In the evening, Ukrainian formations attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula . For this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Their exact number is being specified. Apparently, Ukrainian troops tried to strike airfields of the Aerospace Forces and Navy in Crimea.

For the second day in a row, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively attacking the rear of the border regions of Russia. All day long, Russian air defense systems and electronic warfare systems intercepted Ukrainian drones in the Bryansk , Kursk and Belgorod regions . This is one of the most massive UAV raids on the Russian border in recent times.

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of September 25

 ⚡️The “geranization” of the Odessa region is actively continuing . The marine terminal, as well as the station hotel in Odessa, where Ukrainian Armed Forces officers and foreign mercenaries could be located , came under attack from Russian UAVs. And the upgraded Lancets are again creating a nightmare for Ukrainian aviation. Our drones repeated their “acquaintance” with the Air Force MiG-29 at the Dolgintsevo airfield near Krivoy Rog. In addition, there is data about our missiles hitting a military airfield in Kulbakino, Nikolaev region.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction

 In the Kupyansky sector, positional battles are taking place in Sinkovka and Petropavlovka. On the Karamzinovsky ledge there were battles in the Novoegorovka area. And in the Serebryansky forest, the Russian army repels attacks by militants.

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

 Our fighters are establishing a foothold in Orekhovo-Vasilievka. Encounter fighting continues in Kleshcheevka , as in Andreevka .

⚫️ Zaporozhye direction

 Russian soldiers from the battalion named after. Sudoplatov firmly holds the defense in the Zherebyanki area, preventing the militants from breaking through towards Melitopol . In the Orekhovsky sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to advance to Verbovoy, while our artillery was working on enemy positions in Rabotino. Meanwhile, in the Urozhainy area, all enemy attacks were repulsed.

😂Air Defense 404 once again distinguished itself in the fight against non-existent targets. In the Transnistrian village of Kitskani, fragments of an S-300 missile were discovered . Although it is not reported how it appeared there, taking into account the “merits” of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners, everything becomes clear.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2023/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_25.html