Battlefield Ukraine Defeat and Stalemate
Stop this war
Can Ukraine Possibly Still Win the War?
A unique situation developed near Rabotino and Verbovoe. Literally every destroyed armored vehicle is simultaneously monitored by several UAVs. Various units immediately work on the vehicle, and the biggest problem is to understand who hit the it first.
Let me note once again that such a number of anti-tank weapons does not allow the enemy to gather forces into one fist. Armor movements are rare, the infantry moves forward along the trenches, otherwise they would quickly be noticed in the air and destroyed. All forest belts occupied by the enemy are bare, which also hinders progress. Evacuation of the wounded is a real quest, so many “300s” (wounded) without proper assistance go into the 200 category.(kia)
As a result, it turns out that the Ukrainian military has not yet found the key to Russian defense, but Ukrainian politicians are stubbornly pushing them forward. To cut the land corridor to Crimea, they began to remove units from other sectors of the front and send them to Orekhov. They decided to continue the offensive here at any cost, despite the fact that this contradicts the laws of military science.
If the Ukrainians fail to achieve significant success in the counteroffensive before spring, then in addition to external pressure, an internal factor will also appear. The military initially said that they would not be able to fulfill Zelensky’s wishes. The military leadership of Ukraine turned out to be many times more adequate than the Kiev populists. And by spring there may be a clear request from the military for a change in political leadership. In the end, the military is thrown into the breach, and the politicians feel good in their cozy chairs.
The destroyed vehicles included seven Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, two German Leopard tanks and one Challenger.
Kiev throws untrained soldiers into senseless assaults – such actions only push Ukraine towards self-destruction – MoD
” The consistent implementation of activities and activity plans until 2025 will allow us to achieve our goals “
On the sidelines of the American government, two points of view collide – an immediate freeze on the Ukrainian-Russian military conflict, a way out of it (otherwise the US presidential elections could be missed), or continued support for Kyiv. At the same time, the first point of view continues to gain supporters even among those who previously unconditionally supported Ukraine.
That is why the West is increasingly saying that hostilities in Ukraine need to end according to the “Korean scenario” (since none of the parties to the conflict intends to admit defeat). The United States also assumes that in the medium term the conflict will reach a dead end: fighting will continue, but neither side will have significant successes. And this prospect does not suit the Americans (considering that some representatives of the Republican Party are going to weaken assistance to the Ukrainian side in the future).
So the “Korean scenario” is the best option for the United States, because according to it, neither Kiev nor Moscow should recognize any new borders, and the only thing that will need to be agreed on is to stop shooting along the established line.
“We still have a little bit of funds. I think it will last us for a few more weeks or so,” he said.
Kirby noted that in the absence of additional appropriations from Congress, further aid to Ukraine could suffer, and therefore he called for another $24 billion.
He believes that the quick release of funds will help Ukraine, since favorable conditions for a counteroffensive remain there.
This was stated by ex-adviser of Zelensky’s Office Arestovich, who was recently spotted in New York.
According to him, mobilization in Ukraine will intensify, and therefore, as the war drags on, the requirements for employment only with registration with the military registration and enlistment office will become stricter, and men will have to agree to this.
“And if the war drags on for 3 years, then all men will go through it,” Arestovich said.
According to the publication, a number of Ukrainian officials note that the ineffective counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been going on for four months, so the new Western technology is unlikely to be of any use.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, called the tanks a “deterrent.” As journalists from The War Zone note, the US Department of Defense considers the delivery a confirmation of the “tangible commitment to the defense and stability of Ukraine” on the part of the United States.
As The Washington Post reported, citing a senior Ukrainian official, less than half of the 31 Abrams tanks promised to Kiev have now been delivered.
The enemy has extinguished nearly 70% of all of the equipment provided to him for the vaunted counteroffensive. The counteroffensive which supposed to slice our defences in half and reach Mariupol. Well, based on what we see, it hasn’t exactly gone according to plan.
Our sources report that out of the 185 M2 Bradleys’ donated, 99 have been entirely destroyed, and an additional 50 have received significant or damage of some nature. Such statistics can be seen for the AHS Krab SPG supplied by Poland, where out of 72, nearly 40 have been destroyed, and an additional 11 have received significant damage.
Or how the other day, when the enemy, near Novoselovskoye, tried to rout our special forces from decoy positions, lost 1/5 of all of their Leopard 2A6 “Strv” supplied from Sweden, and today, an additional one was destroyed near Kharkov.
For the rest of the equipment supplied to Ukraine, it is very hard to predict how many they have left. We know of atleast 3 HIMARs systems being destroyed, however this is insignificant when we know that they have at-least 6 operational at all times. But despite Zelenskys’ statements that “Winter won’t stop us”, the lack of field artillery, armored, and most imporantly, personnel might catch up to them.
Nowadays, we estimate their losses to be close to 77,000 personnel, 1,750 Tanks & Armored Vehicles, and nearly 1,000 pieces of field artillery (including SPGs). And not mention, the indiscriminate shelling tactics they use, soon, this will catch up to them too. It’s hard to estimate when they will run out of steam, but eventually, they will.
And through this time, the RF Armed Forces have been attentively equipping mobilised personnel, contract personnel, with offensive equipment. The lack of offensive operations means that we have not suffered significant losses in tanks, and armored vehicles. Such signs indicate that, eventually, we will go on an offensive of our own.
2. Deliveries of Abrams tanks from NATO arsenals are taking place.
3. There are promises of supplying longer-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to the authorities in Kiev.
It appears that Russia is increasingly left with no choice but to engage in direct conflict with NATO on the ground. NATO has evolved into an openly fascist alliance, resembling Hitler’s Axis, albeit on a larger scale. We are prepared, although the outcome may come at a much higher cost to humanity than in 1945…
At night, the Russian Armed Forces again launched a series of attacks with kamikaze drones and missiles on targets in territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. Although the Ukrainian Armed Forces once again announced that they had repelled the attack and intercepted almost all drones, explosions in different regions of Ukraine clearly indicate the opposite.
▪️In the Odessa region, Russian troops continue systematic raids on the port infrastructure on the Danube – this time they again arrived along Reni, which is now a large hub and literally filled with containers with trucks. UAVs also hit the Orlovka-Isakcha ferry crossing, suspending the operation of the Orlovka checkpoint.
▪️In the Nikolaev region, the Russian Armed Forces finally worked on the airfield in Kulbakino, destroying at least one MiG-29 fighter there. This is the third recorded case of Ukrainian Air Force aircraft of this type being hit on the ground over the past few days. The UAV also hit an agricultural enterprise in the Bashtansky district.
▪️In the occupied part of the Kherson region, the Russian Aerospace Forces hit an ammunition depot in the village of Kiselevka with a FAB-1500 aerial bomb from the UMPC. The shells scattered around the area damaged the railway track, which is why communication with the Nikolaev region was suspended.
▪️In Krivoy Rog in the Dnepropetrovsk region, an infrastructure facility in the city was hit. According to some reports, another blow was struck at a quarry on the outskirts – the explosion was clearly visible even from the outskirts of the settlement.
Explosions also occurred in other areas in the territory occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces: in the Cherkasy region , an infrastructure facility in the city of Smila came under attack, and in occupied Slavyansk , the local bus station building came under attack.
Previously, Ukrainian media claimed that the officer was killed in an attack on the headquarters in Crimea.
Since the fall of last year, Ukrainian formations began using unmanned boats (BEC) to attack Russian ports, warships, tankers, as well as the Crimean Bridge in the Black Sea.
We decided to analyze what types of BeK the Armed Forces of Ukraine have? How have areas and tactics of their use changed? How many of them have been destroyed to date and, most importantly, how to deal with them?
ðŸ”»While the main activity on the Dnieper is concentrated in the island zone, where tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are consolidated on Kozatsky Island , units of the Ukrainian Marine Corps are arriving in the Kherson and Nikolaev regions.
On September 24 and 25, another column of forces of the 37th and 38th infantry infantry regiments, which had previously operated in the Vremevsky sector, passed west through Dnepropetrovsk .
190 units of equipment are also moving there, including 13 Kirpi armored fighting vehicles, 25 Husky armored fighting vehicles, 10 Mastiff armored fighting vehicles, 7 Hummer armored fighting vehicles, one M777 howitzer and one Stormer air defense system, as well as about 13 thousand people (group Marines alone exceed 8 thousand people) .
ðŸ”»Part of the personnel and tracked equipment have already been stationed in the areas of Vysoky , Ponyatovka and Nikolsky and have begun to interact with the TRO crews operating near the Dnieper.
The remaining units of the Ukrainian Navy remain in the second line for now. To cover them from attacks, IRIS-T air defense system position areas are equipped in Kruty Yar and Bashtanka .
ðŸ”»This group was sent to the destination for a reason. Now they are trying to secure a bridgehead on the islands with territorial defense forces, while more trained and equipped Marines are in reserve.
The emphasis on Kozatsky Island may indicate an intention to land at the Dnepryany-Novaya Kakhovka line and continue moving inland directly to Crimea with the support of aviation and artillery, which in recent days have been trying to hit rear targets in the Kherson region.
❗️However, even in a positive scenario, such an outing is suicidal. It is more likely that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will simultaneously try to attack from Ochakov.
And if we add regular sorties of landing groups on boats to Crimea, then the current transfer of Ukrainian marines may be connected with the planned large-scale operation in the south.
The enemy remains inactive and has not initiated any offensive actions. They continue to bring in personnel in small groups to populated areas. Artillery duels persist, with our forces intensifying artillery shelling to prevent the enemy’s movement. Overnight, we targeted clusters with FABs.
In Verbovoye, the enemy has not interfered, and any claims of breakthroughs are false; the cost of their offensive is death.
The AFU are conducting rotations and reconnaissance, with three tanks approaching the settlement, two of which were subsequently destroyed.
Our paratroopers are bravely holding their positions.
Russian Aerospace Forces covers the enemy with FABs near Rabotino on the Zaporozhye Front, troops repulse attacks near Verbovoy
➨ The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their creeping offensive in the direction of the main attack – in the Orekhovsky sector of the Zaporozhye Front.
➨ The enemy concentrates forces in plantings and trenches, after which he sends small assault groups to attack.
➨ Also, since the night, armored vehicles and militants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were noticed by our reconnaissance near Rabotino, and concentrations of forces were hit by fire.
➨ The enemy continues to try to break through from Rabotino to Novoprokopovka and Verbovoy; airborne troops, infantry, tank crews and artillery of the Southern Military District are engaged in heavy defensive battles.
➨ Russian intelligence officers identify concentrations of Ukrainian Armed Forces forces and direct aircraft at them.
➨ Combat aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces cover targets with high-explosive bombs.
Vremevsky ledge: The Russian army launched a counterattack at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR, knocking out the enemy from a number of strong points
▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, ours carried out an offensive operation, destroying enemy forces and forcing the survivors to flee.
▪️ With the active support of artillery, reconnaissance and infantry attacked the relaxed units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
As a result of the fleeting battles, our guys got rich trophies and a significant number of prisoners.
▪️ Several days before the attack, units of the Vostok group of troops, aviation strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems “Solntsepek” inflicted a comprehensive fire defeat on the positions and temporary deployment points of the 127th Terrestrial Defense Brigade in the areas of Priyutnoye and Malinovka.
Situation as of 17:00 on September 26, 2023
ðŸ”» Near Bakhmut the situation remains nearly unchanged – a positional struggle with mutual fires, from artillery and aviation to FPV-drones.
▪️ According to many channels, Russian paratroopers carried out a successful attack on enemy positions near Orikhove-Vasylivka. As of today, there is no detailed information about the assault.
▪️ On the southern flank, the front line at Klishchiivka – Andriivka-Kurdyumivka is also without significant changes. From time to time the AFU are trying to roll up on the Russian positions in small groups, but without success.
ðŸ”» However, we are now seeing AFU units gathering in rear areas in the Bakhmut direction. Looking at areas of their concentration, we see possible directions of attack: Razdolivka and Lysychansk, as well as Zaitseve-Kodema.
Moreover, the main task is to encircle Bakhmut, and attacks on Lysychansk and Kodema are likely to be diversionary. There is no specific tactical goal for the AFU in such an offensive, but it has a great symbolic value.
Therefore, the attack on Bakhmut should be considered in the context of planning a large-scale operation in the south, where aggravation in the Soledar, Belgorod or Bryansk directions will be intended to constrain the Russian Armed Forces.
The enemy was thrown back behind the railway. Small but Victory!!!
Last night, the enemy east of Kleshcheevka crossed the railway line in one area and began to gain a foothold.
From night on there was a battle all day long. I just received a message from a friend: “Recaptured.”
The enemy was again thrown back behind the iron.
➖At the Torsky site, our troops thwarted the attack. In the morning, a platoon of the 63rd infantry brigade, together with an infantry fighting vehicle, concentrated for an attack.
The enemy has been exposed by military guards. As a result of artillery fire, the enemy suffered losses.
ðŸ’¥It is still problematic for units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to move due to constant fire exposure. Thus, today one vehicle of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed .
➖In Serebryansky forestry, our troops were able to improve the tactical position by occupying enemy trenches, which had previously been mercilessly subjected to artillery shelling and processing by FPV drones.
ðŸ”»Against the background of the preparation of Ukrainian formations, the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the north-east of Ukraine has increased again. Artillery shelling and UAV raids on the Belgorod , Kursk and Bryansk regions resumed with renewed vigor.
▪️At the same time, the emphasis of the Ukrainian Armed Forces artillerymen has shifted to the Bryansk region. Additional guns, as well as Turkish 122 and 155 mm MLRS, were brought to the border in the Chernigov region.
▪️Two DRGs of 20 people each were deployed to the Klimovo direction in the Bryansk region. Now the groups have taken up positions in the Elino area on the border itself.
▪️Another enemy reconnaissance group carried out a sortie at night to Guevo in the Kursk region from Miropol in the Sumy region . Their goal was to track the movement routes of Russian military personnel.
ðŸ”»However, Russian fighters are not asleep: in the vicinity of Popovka , units of the Russian Armed Forces carried out a successful attack on a terrorist defense post. As a result, three members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were wounded and three went missing.
However, the concentration of APU near the borders remains at a high level. And another 350 people from an unidentified formation were transferred to Semerenki . Against the backdrop of possible activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in other directions, we should expect attacks in the old territories of the Russian Federation to divert attention, as was the case before the offensive in the Orekhovsky sector .
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▫️ In Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/30836), units of the Yug Group of Forces, in cooperation with aviation and artillery, repelled four attacks by AFU near Krasnogorovka, Pervomayskoye, and Khimik (DPR). During the day, over 310 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed or injured, as well as five tanks, five IFVs, and eight motor vehicles. In counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
◽️ In Zaporozhye direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/30837), two attacks of AFU 71st Jaeger and 36th Airmobile brigades near Verbovoye (Zaporozhye) were repelled by actions of the Russian Group of Forces units, air strikes and artillery fire. Up to 70 srvicemen, two AFVs, and three motor vehicles have been neutralised. Also, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system and one D-30 howitzer were hit during counter-battery warfare.
▫️ In Kupyansk direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30840) the Zapad Group of Forces units supported by aviation and artillery inflicted fire damage on the enemy near Berestovoye (Kharkov) and Novosyolovskoye (LPR). Up to 50 servicemen and two motor vehicles have been neutralised. One Gvozdika self-propelled artillery guns was eliminated. Moreover, two AFU field command posts were annihilated close to Seredina-Buda (Sumy) and Kislovka (Kherson).
▫️ In Krasny Liman direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/30838), three attacks launched by assault detachments of the 67th Mechanised Brigade and the 12th Special Forces Brigade of the AFU close to Chervonaya Dibrova and Kuzmino (LPR) were repelled by professional efforts of the Tsentr Group of Forces, helicopter strikes, and artillery fire. In addition, strikes were delivered at clusters of enemy manpower and hardware near Grigorovka (DPR) and Serebryansky forestry.
▫️ During the day, the enemy has lost more than 90 servicemen killed and injured, as well as two AFVs, and two pick-up trucks. Also, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system and one D-20 howitzer were hit during counter-battery warfare.
▫️ In South Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/30839), the Vostok Group of Forces, supported by helicopters and artillery inflicted fire damage on AFU units near Rovnopol and repelled one enemy attack close to Staromayorskoye (DPR). The enemy’s losses over the past 24 hours have amounted to up to 120 srvicemen killed or injured, two AFVs, three motor vehicles, and one D-20 howitzer.
◽️ In Kherson direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/30837), over 15 servicemen and 10 motor vehicles have been neutralised.
▫️ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 117 areas during the day. In addition, a Ukrainian Anklav anti-UAV electronic warfare station was uncovered and destroyed near Dnepropetrovsk. An ammunition depot of the 124th Territorial Defence Brigade has been wiped out close to Kiselyovka (Kherson).
▫️ Russian Aerospace Forces have eliminated one MiG-29 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force at the Kulbakino airfield near Kulbakino, (Nikolayev).
▫️ Air defence systems have shot down 5 HIMARS MLRS shells, one JDAM guided bombs, and one U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missile during the day. In addition, 57 UAVs have been destroyed near Artyomovsk, Spartak, Nevelskoye, Novopetrikovka (DPR), Lisichansk (LPR), Krynki, Kazachyi Lageri (Kherson), Veliky Vyselok (Kharkov), Tokmak and Pologi (Zaporozhye).
The Russian Armed Forces launched another massive strike on targets in Ukraine. In the Odessa region, the port infrastructure in Reni and the ferry in Orlovka were damaged. A MiG-29 was destroyed in Kulbakino , and a large ammunition depot was destroyed in the Kherson region .
In the regions of Ukraine bordering Russia, the enemy is amassing personnel and equipment. Artillery formations and DRGs are arriving in the Chernigov region.
The situation at the front is steadily tense. In Bakhmut, the enemy is accumulating forces, creating the potential for a breakthrough east to Zaitsevo .
There are battles in the Yuzhnodonetsk and Zaporozhye directions. The enemy launches attacks in the direction of Verbovoy , but to no avail. In the Kherson region , a concentration of Ukrainian forces of up to 13 thousand people, eight of whom are marines, is recorded.
ðŸ’¡ “We burn a lot of leopards, we can get crests even from hell” – it is with this fighting spirit that Russian tankers Topaz and Buba burn enemy equipment. The guys, with proper humor and responsibility, perform very dangerous work, because a tank is one of the main targets on the battlefield (Ukrainian crews will not let you lie). And a variety of situations happened to them. Buba, for example, quickly helped disrupt the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, unexpectedly rolling out and working on tanks and other Ukrainian armored vehicles, for which he was nominated for the Order of Courage. But Topaz distinguished himself by saving his comrades, whose tank was knocked out by an enemy drone, but the fighter did not lose his head, drove up, helped put out the fire and took the “box” of his colleagues in the shop.
⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:
The Russian army advanced in the Kislovka area. Fighting continues near Sinkovka . There are no changes on the Karamzinovsky and Torsky ledges . Encounter battles in Serebryansky Forest .
⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction
There are battles in the Orekhovo-Vasilievka area. Ours also repelled an attack by militants near Berkhovka . In Kleshcheevka and Andreevka, oncoming battles do not stop.
⚫️ Zaporozhye direction
The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked our positions in the Verbovoy area with large forces, but were repulsed by the Russian army. The militants also unsuccessfully advanced north of Novoprokopovka. At the Vremevsky ledge, our fighters stopped the enemy’s attempt to break through at Priyutny.
⚡️At night, ports 404 on the Danube again used the technique of calling “geraniums” and missiles, the work of which was vigilantly observed from Romania. A target was hit in the Orlovka area, as well as in Reni. Explosions were also heard in Krivoy Rog; most likely ours hit the Dolgintsevo airfield. In addition, the Russian army worked against enemy targets in the Cherkassy and Nikolaev regions.
ðŸ”¹In #Zaporozhye Direction, our forces identified and neutralised an AFU group in the fields and forest plantations to the north of #Novoprokopovka. We repelled several attacks near #Verbovoye. While there is a relative lull in this area, information is increasingly passing that the AFU command plans to make a breakthrough towards #Tokmak before the thaw. The enemy is strengthening its positions, and there is information about the transfer of reserves from #Kharkov region to the southern borders. Our forces are striking the identified reserves from the ground and air.
ðŸ”¹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, the AFU is still not actively attacking. On the #Novodonetskoye – #Urozhaynoye line and near #Priyutnoye, the movement of small enemy groups is suppressed by Russian artillery strikes.
ðŸ”¹In #Bakhmut Direction, heavy battles continue. On the northern flank, neither side has control over Orekhovo-Vasilyevka. Our forces are holding on to the outskirts on one side, the enemy on the opposite side. The AFU tried to attack near #Berkhovka, but ours repulsed the attempt. It is still tense on the southern flank. The AFU is attacking the Russian positions near the railway at #Kleshcheyevka and #Andreyevka. Unfortunately, the initiative is on the enemy’s side.
ðŸ”¹In #KrasnyLiman Direction, The AFU are gathering infantry and equipment at #Torskoye ledge and tried to probe our defence. There are clashes in the #Serebryanskoye forest.
ðŸ”¹In #Kupyansk Direction, our forces have retaken new positions on the #Sinkovka – #Petropavlovka line, forcing the AFU to withdraw from the landings in front of #Sinkovka itself. There is also progress near #Kislovka, but the heights and the motorway are still under AFU control.
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