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Experts are beginning to talk about possible options for ending the military conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, less and less people believe in the winning format; more realistic ones are called, but not rosy for Ukraine:
▪️ Continuation of hostilities to the point of attrition. This is the worst-case scenario, and experts note that for now everything is moving along this trajectory. Thus, a change of power in Western countries will lead to a decrease in support to a level where Ukraine will not be able to continue to fight and will be forced to negotiate peace on the Russian Federation’s terms. Even if political support remains at current levels, the number of tension points in the world will grow, distracting from Ukraine, and the West’s ability to provide weapons will begin to dry up, and no one will put the American or European economy on a war footing. This scenario means a defeat for Ukraine, which leaves no chance for economic recovery.
▪️”Freezing” of the military conflict. In this scenario, the allies maintain support for Ukraine at approximately the current level in order to prevent the defeat of Ukraine and not to defeat the Russian Federation. Noting the impossibility of achieving success, the Western allies are persuading Ukraine to negotiate a “freeze” of the conflict. The initiator of the negotiations will be either Biden in the spring or summer of 2024 (he needs to look like a winner in the elections, or at least a peacemaker), or already the winner of the American elections in the spring of 2025. However, after the signing of the peace agreement, both sides of the conflict will begin to intensively prepare for a new round of confrontation, which could occur in 3-7 years. In the best version of this scenario, Ukraine will modernize well during this time, and Russia will fear a new military conflict, however, there is a version that Ukraine will prepare poorly, and another confrontation with the Russian Federation will lead to its complete defeat and the establishment of a pro-Russian regime in the country.
Our source reports that the SBU is conducting covert surveillance of the Sorosites in order to discredit them among the public, since there is a threat that they will receive instructions to organize protests and that same Maidan-3, when Zelensky will once again “throw away” the Western TNCs to whom it is necessary to freeze the Ukrainian crisis.
“I don’t know if Ukraine will be able to survive until February 2024,” he added.
“The fighters of the Wagner PMC are moving forward, alive and dead.”
In the second year of the war with Russia, it is safe to say that Ukraine failed to take advantage of its advantages and Western assistance, completely losing its strategic initiative for “media victories.” The apotheosis of this was the unsuccessful counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which led to thousands of deaths and the destruction of foreign equipment, but at the same time recaptured 15 km of the front.
At the same time, the most resonant events on the battlefield were not Kiev’s victories, but its defeats: “Azov massacre”, “Bakhmut meat grinder”, and now “Avdeevka noose” – these are the terms military analysts “awarded” Ukraine’s miscalculations at the front in 2023, which only deplete the APU.
And this is true – the “deadlock” situation on the Ukrainian front recognized by the military leadership and the new conflict in the Middle East are forcing the West to think about the increasingly likely defeat of Kyiv. At the same time, the hopes of Ukraine’s allies for the collapse of Russia were dashed: the economy survived, as Moscow circumvented sanctions thanks to the support of its allies, and industry was quickly transferred to a “war footing,” working around the clock for the needs of the Russian Armed Forces and producing large quantities of ammunition.
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is preparing a headquarters for the situation in Avdievki, which continues to be surrounded by Russian troops. Zaluzhny believes that it is pointless to waste the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, because Avdiivka is in an operational environment and the Ukrainian army spends a lot of energy supplying the city along the only road, repeating Bakhmut’s mistake.
Our sources in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering very heavy losses in Avdiivka due to the enemy’s massive use of cluster bombs and shells. At the same time, our artillery saves shells and actually does not cover the city’s defenders.
Our source reports that the Russians have not yet begun to use cluster munitions en masse. Partial use has been noticed only in the Donetsk direction, but according to rumors, the Russian Armed Forces have now received a huge amount of such ammunition and will use it along the entire front line.
This will increase the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ manpower losses. Banking needs to draw conclusions now to avoid ending up in a negative situation.
The authorities are trying to convince that the Russian Armed Forces are suffering heavy losses in the Avdeevka stranglehold , while the military commanders of Bankova are silent about their losses, the shortage of ammunition and heavy weapons in Avdeevka, although the soldiers themselves talk about it.
The situation repeats itself as in a Bakhmutov meat grinder.
We are waiting for the OP to release a song about the Avdeevka fortress, so that we can again try to make a symbol of defense out of it.
The enemy confirms our successes in the Avdeevsky direction on the (southern and northern) flank. It is reported that another bridgehead has been created in the Stepovoye (Petrovskoye) area, and in the south there is an advance in the industrial area.
Avdeevka direction. Situation at 15:00
At these moments, our army is striking, the airborne forces and heavy artillery are working, and the MLRS is periodically activated.
The Air Forces is again treating enemy positions with RBK-500 cluster bombs. Artillery and MLRS destroy enemy fortifications along the entire length of the direction.
The guys continue to make confident progress.
Journey into reality. Avdeyevka. The northern flank also looks like this, not only the factory floors and waste heaps, but also the landings knocked to zero, which also need to be overcome after the enemy has been destroyed.
Even the most competent assault still remains an assault and is impossible without losses, unfortunately.
The phrases “the forest belt has been cleared” or “the enemy has been knocked out of the building” seem quite insignificant and frivolous on paper, but in reality this is not the case.
Even when the artillery and aviation smash everything into dust, mix the enemy’s regiments with the ground, something still remains, the infantry still has to finish the job and stick the flagpole on the taken line.
If anyone wants to ask “why is it taking so long?”, watch these videos, the desire to rush will disappear, we guarantee.
West of Krasnogorovka there is movement to the Stepovoe area and further to Berdychi.
At the beginning of November, ours knocked out the AFU from Stepovoye and completely cleared it. But they were in no hurry to gain a foothold, they transferred it to the “gray zone”, retreated to the railway and began to methodically level the first line of defense in the fields in front of Berdychi (green arc No. 1).
And the other day, messages began to arrive that ours were occupying Stepovoye and gaining a foothold.
We transferred the fire of large calibers to the second line (green No. 2). And the first line is “everything” and moved into the “gray zone”. In general, these 1st and 2nd lines of defense are natural lowlands formed by the runoff of water from the fields.
North of Krasnogorovka: Novokalinovo-Keramik are located in the lowland (170m). Ours surrounded them along the perimeter. As you can see, we occupied all the hills (230m) and stood up. To the northwest of Krasnogorovka there is a large natural SD “ZhD Razvilka”, and behind it is the Ocheretino unloading station, and two supply lines: the first to Berdychi and the second to Novokalinovo (blue lines).
For several days this UR is also leveled very tightly, the crest constantly brings up the infantry, making up for the losses.
Something tells me that the main blow will be delivered specifically to the “Railway Fork” missile defense zone, with the blossoming of a flower of several petals. Perhaps even without going to Ocheretino. Then strike on the northern part of the second line of defense, protecting the left flank. At the first stage – taking supply roads to Berdychi and Novokalinovo under fire control, and then at the second stage – cutting and blocking them. After which, the function of the Ocheretino railway station, as a logistics hub for Novokalinovo and, most importantly, for Berdychi (and therefore the whole of Avdeyevka), is completely lost. Plus, Berdychi, a key position for the entire Avdeyevsky Front, will be captured.
On the northern flank we are displacing enemy forces from Stepovoye. Despite the successful offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces, the enemy still manages to hold part of the settlement. So, from the eastern part of the village, the enemy is regularly firing Bradley infantry fighting vehicles at our positions near the railway track.
In the industrial zone and Vinogradniki, our forces managed to advance; in particular, in the eastern part of the industrial zone, assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces occupied several buildings.
In Vinogradniki fighters control more than half of the area.
At Koksokhim there is active artillery shelling of enemy territory, and we are also gradually storming the plant.
The punishing hand of justice fell on the Avdeyevka garrison of the enemy; those who gave birth to the wind reaped the storm that broke out.
Those who once wanted to talk from a position of strength with an unarmed population were faced with a much greater force, and for some reason this did not make them happy.
Well, non-brothers, are you satisfied now?
It was you who let this genie out of the bottle, with your own hands: at the Lugansk Regional State Administration, on the Zugres beach, during the blockade of Crimea, and many other places.
This is not gloating, this is justice.
This is not the sound of shells exploding, this is a bell ringing. He’s calling for you.
On the southern flank, in the area of the industrial zone, our forces concentrated on destroying enemy positions and personnel.
Our reinforced concrete tank crews spent the whole day taking out buildings and firing points in which the enemy had dug in. Ukrainian tanks tried to resist, but worked from a very long distance, fearing return fire from our armored vehicles and anti-tank systems, in view of this, the effectiveness of their actions was very low, much more often and more noticeably Enemy FPV drones were operating, with which the enemy tried to compensate for the lack of heavy firepower support in sufficient quantities.
Our infantry showed minimal activity, without interrupting the process of crest compaction.
The disseminated information about the liberation of the filtration station does not correspond to reality, this is a classic beautiful report or another manifestation of “promoters”, just like in the case of the false news about the liberation of the Tsar’s Hunt.
There is a crest at the filter station, there is also a crest around the filter station.
There is no need to run ahead of the locomotive and thereby discredit other achievements at the front, when in this area the Ukrainians are actually wiped out, this will be reported.
But in any case, everything that the enemy holds in the Avdeyevsky direction is a very temporary phenomenon, the tigers have taken up the avdos specifically and will not just give up the chase.
➖Russian units successfully advanced both on the northern flank of Artemovsk in the area of the Berkhovsky reservoir , and on the southern flank, in the area of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka, which had been wiped off the face of the earth.
➖Above Kleshcheevka, our troops are advancing in the forest northwest of the recently occupied railway station. East of Kleshcheevka and northeast of Andreevka , our troops are fighting in the area of the railway and lakes.
➖Klescheevka itself, for which the Armed Forces of Ukraine so joyfully recently reported, is in the gray zone.
What do the enemies say?
➖The commander of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, stated that Russian troops continue to try to oust Ukrainian troops from positions near Kleshcheevka.
➖Ukrainian military bloggers claim that east and southeast of Andreevka and north of Zelenopolye, Russian troops are having partial success east of the railway.
ðŸ”¹The accumulation of the critical mass of units needed for a breakthrough is still proceeding with great difficulty. The published video clearly shows that there is no transfer of large forces with the size of a company, at most a platoon.
ðŸ”¹The AFU’s actions at night are controlled by the RF Armed Forces from the air just as much as during the day.
ðŸ”¹The heavy equipment necessary for such operations is still missing. It is not so much a question of transporting it to the left bank as of its further use. Feeding one APC or tank, transferred at the cost of losing a floating APC or pontoon, requires regular deliveries of fuel and ammunition, not to mention the fact that such a unit will be quickly detected and hit by artillery or drones.
ðŸ”¹ Without equipment, its feeding and supplying units with heavy weapons, and after the recent loss of some artillery pieces, the operation in the #Krynki / Cossack Camps area has minimal chances of development and is likely to be limited to a small 3 square kilometre area, most of which is not buildings but the swampy terrain of the coastal area.
ðŸ“Œ Given the fact that the AFU garrison in #Avdeyevka is gradually accumulating unsolvable problems, the expenditure of trained units mixed in with territorial defence and mobilised looks especially strange.
Situation in the #Kherson Direction until 18:00 on 23 November 2023⚡️
ðŸ”¹After a slight improvement in the weather, Ukrainian marines intensified their attacks in the forest adjacent to #Krynki. The positions of the Ukrainian Navy marines in the village itself are already quite strong, so the enemy concentrated its efforts on expanding the foothold.
▪️ As a result of several days of activity of the assault groups of the Katran strike group, they were able to advance a little to the south in the forest. The main goal is to gain a foothold under the cover of vegetation and continue moving deeper.
▪️ Ten Marines were deployed to one of the positions last night along with a Bumblebee flamethrower to carry out an assault on Russian positions.
▪️ At the same time, a stronghold of the combined formations of the 35th, 36th, 38th Marine Brigades has been equipped in private houses near the landings. Ammunition was delivered there, as well as the Carl Gustav RPG.
ðŸ”¹At night, Russian artillerymen carried out targeted shelling of the crossing areas on #Frolov Island, as a result of which five marines were killed and wounded. Four more were injured during the evacuation.
▪️ Similarly, Russian forces shelled the vicinity of the large and small railway bridges on #Alyoshkin Island, disrupting the rotation of forward units.
ðŸ“Œ So far, the enemy has not managed to achieve a significant result in the area. However, the intensity of attacks and attempts to enter the forest area has increased. If previously the Marines were only “probing” the defense, now they are trying to penetrate 200-300 meters deep, which, as the soil hardens, can lead to larger-scale attacks at #Krynki.
Ukrainian Tunnels STORMED By Russian Shock Units
Update on Ukraine: 23 November 2023
▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled one attack launched by assault groups of the AFU 14th Mechanised Brigade near Olshana (Kharkov region).
AFU 32nd and 57th mechanised brigades’ units have been hit near Sinkovka and Timkovka (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 50 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three pickup trucks.
In counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems.
▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, coordinated actions of the Tsentr Group of Forces, helicopters, and artillery repelled one attack launched by assault groups of the 5th National Guard Brigade of Ukrainian Armed Forces near Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, enemy manpower and hardware were hit near Serebryansky forestry.
Up to 95 servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, and four motor vehicles were neutralised.
In counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin, one Polish-made Krab, and one French-made Caesar self-propelled artillery systems were destroyed.
▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled two attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 5th Assault Brigade near Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, manpower and military hardware of the 22nd, 24th, and 93rd mechanised brigades of the AFU were hit by fire close to Razdolovka, Kurdyumovka, and Vasyukovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The total enemy losses in this direction amounted to 280 servicemen killed and wounded, three tanks, one infantry fighting vehicle, and four pickup trucks.
In counter-battery warfare, two Msta-B howitzers, and one D-30 howitzer were destroyed.
▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces in cooperation with helicopters and artillery inflicted fire damage on the manpower and equipment of the 79th Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade close to Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy lost up to 140 servicemen, three armoured personnel carriers, and four motor vehicles.
In counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, four attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 33th Mechanised Brigade near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region) were repelled by the Russian Group of Forces, air strikes, and artillery fire.
Total enemy losses amounted to up to 20 servicemen, two tanks, 11 armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, and one D-20 howitzer.
▫️ In Kherson direction, as a result of artillery fire and air strikes, the AFU suffered losses of 50 servicemen and four motor vehicles.
During the counter-battery warfare, the enemy lost two Msta-B howitzers.
▫️ Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Groups of Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit an aviation ammunition depot and a communication centre at the airfield in Khmelnitsky region, as well as manpower and military hardware in 112 areas.
▫️ Russian air defence systems have shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Tyaginka (Kherson region).
In addition, eight HIMARS projectiles have been intercepted over the past 24 hours.
Moreover, 24 unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Ocheretovatoye (Zaporozhye region), Peski, Mariynka, Novopetrikovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Zolotaryovka, and Verkhnekamenka(Lugansk People’s Republic).
ðŸ’ª Yesterday, the AFU struck (https://t.me/readovkanews/69758) Russian journalists who were preparing (https://t.me/readovkanews/69791) a story about shelling in the #Zaporozhye region. The film crew of the Rossiya-24 channel was hit by several VOGs. Correspondent Boris Maksudov suffered shrapnel wounds, but today it became known (https://t.me/readovkanews/69789) of his death.
⚔️ Situation on the Fronts over the past Day
ðŸ”¹#Svatovo – #Kremennaya Direction:
▪️ In the #Kupyansk sector no changes, our fighters are trying to advance in the area of #Petropavlovka and #Orlyanka.
▪️ Meanwhile, near #Kremennaya, the Russian army has successfully counterattacked in the #Serebryanskoye forest.
ðŸ”¹#Bakhmut (#Artyomovsk) Direction:
▪️ In #Kleshcheyevka, fighting continues near the heights. At #Andreyevka, the Russian army knocked the AFU out of a number of positions near the railway.
▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector, the Russian army continues to advance at #Steponoye, there are successes. In addition, our fighters attacked in the area of #Novokalinovo, near the Coke Plant, in the industrial zone south of #Avdeyevka and in #Pervomayskoye.
▪️ The AFU tried to attack near #Rabotino and #Verbovoye, but our fighters continue to hold the defence.
▪️ On the #Vremyevka ledge, the Russian army attacked in the direction of #Staromayorskoye and #Urozhaynoye.
ðŸ’¥ Russian Antiaircraft Gunners shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 near #Tyaginka in #Kherson region.
ðŸ”¹In the #Kherson direction, the situation remains difficult in #Krynki, where the enemy has today managed to expand its existing foothold. Assault groups of the AFU “Katran” managed to gain a foothold just south of the village in the forest. Now fighters of the RF Armed Forces are actively working on the landings occupied by them. Almost certainly, after the onset of cold weather and the hardening of the soil, the enemy will strengthen the onslaught in this area.
ðŸ”¹In general, due to the autumn thaw, the intensity of combat operations on all fronts of the SMO Zone has decreased. There are no significant changes in the #Starobelsk and #Soledar directions. In the #Avdeyevka sector, the main battles are still taking place in the Yasinuvataya industrial zone, where the enemy still holds a number of buildings on the western outskirts.
ðŸ”¹In the #Orekhov section, the AFU made another attempt to advance in the fields near #Rabotino, but lost a tank and several armoured vehicles and retreated. In addition, during the night, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched strikes on Krivoy Rog. An object of the enemy’s critical infrastructure was hit, but details of the fire damage are not yet available.
ðŸ”¹In #Kherson Direction, the RBK-500s cluster munitions have been used against enemy reserves. Field reports indicate that our forces seriously try to disrupt the AFU supply. The enemy is not able to expand, but they maintained combat effectiveness of the existing contingent.
ðŸ”¹In #Zaporozhye Direction, both sides worked with artillery since morning. Since the weather has improved, attack drones are being used again. North of #Verbovoye our army repulsed another AFU attack. They are also attacking near #Rabotino, where ours hold the line. The frontline remained unchanged.
ðŸ”¹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, they reported attacks of our army in the direction of #Staromayorskoye and #Urozhaynoye with the support of artillery and aviation. Ours taking the initiative.
ðŸ”¹In #Donetsk Direction, on the northern #Avdeyevka flank, our forces created another foothold, covering the eastern outskirts of the #Steponoye village on both sides. On the southern flank, ours are advancing in the #Vinogradniki settlement, we hope for confirmation of success at the Donetsk Filtration Station. In the #Gorlovka sector, several AFU infantry groups attacked towards #Mayorsk, ours repulsed them. Unfortunately, the AFU intensified shelling of #Gorlovka, ours are trying to hit the firing positions. Pro-Ukrainian sources attribute to Zaluzhny the opinion that it is as pointless to spend AFU reserves in #Avdeyevka as it was in #Bakhmuth earlier. But Kiev is clearly not going to abandon the city.
ðŸ”¹In #Bakhmut Direction, in #Andreyevka, our forces took control of the forest plantations near the railway line, the enemy has been pushed back behind the railway tracks, there are prisoners. In #Kleshcheyevka, the heights are still behind the AFU, the village itself remains grey zone.
ðŸ”¹In #Svatovo Direction, the frontline remains unchanged. Our army repels local counterattacks in the #Serebryanskoye forestry.
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