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Colleagues, you are right that the Office of the President is removing the entire command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which it considers unreliable. Our sources reported about this two weeks ago, and now Bankova is implementing all this. Everyone understands that this is political reprisal in the face of a vacuum of legitimacy, but this will not stop Andrei Ermak.
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President conducted a closed sociology on Zaluzhny’s resignation and Zelensky’s rating, the result turned out to be much worse than the technologists predicted. 78.7% did not support the resignation of the Commander-in-Chief, and 52% consider it politically motivated, while 63% of Ukrainians do not believe in the changes in the strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced by the President.
Vladimir Zelensky dismissed the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, explaining the decision by the need to renew the country’s administrative apparatus. But in planning a much-needed renewal of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, both the former commander-in-chief and his replacement, Alexander Syrsky, pointed to the same looming problem: the need to replace battle-weary soldiers on the front lines and replenish weapons supplies, The New York Times writes.
Replenishing the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already become a tangible internal problem. It is felt especially acutely against the backdrop of forecasts by military analysts, who warn that if the United States approves additional military assistance, Ukraine this year will, at best, hold its existing front lines, and without Western help it will completely lose ground.
Mobilization is called one of the reasons for Zaluzhny’s dismissal. In Kyiv, they are afraid to get involved with plans for a large-scale conscription of Ukrainians to the front. Already in December, it became known about disagreements between Zaluzhny and Zelensky on the issue of mobilization. However, even after the appointment of Syrsky, who called, among other things, “the life and health of military personnel” his priority, there is no unity on this issue in Ukraine.
Experts point out the difficulty in the current conditions of finding a balance between meeting the needs of the army and maintaining the political and economic stability of Ukraine. Thus, conscripting more men over the age of 20, given the likely combat losses, could lead to a decline in the birth rate and affect the country for decades, reports The New York Times.
Having replaced the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zelensky became even more dependent on decisions made on the battlefield, writes WSJ. Now he is responsible for any mistakes – both military and political.
“This is a very tense and dangerous moment for the actor-turned-politician,” the article says.
The failure of attempts to break through Russian defenses during an extremely costly counter-offensive led to increased pressure on Zelensky: supplies of military equipment and weapons from Western allies began to decline. On the front lines, Ukrainian troops are facing severe shortages of ammunition, while Russia is taking advantage of its superiority to advance.
The difference between Zaluzhny and Syrsky is that the ex-Commander-in-Chief constantly fought with politicians at headquarters for the military, whom Bankovaya easily sent on deadly operations for the sake of PR effect. Syrsky, on the contrary, never spoke out against any of Zelensky’s plans, which was clearly visible from the defense of Bakhmut, and then attempts to encircle him. Now a similar situation is being repeated in Avdiivka, which is being bombarded with reserves in order to retain the city as a new symbol of comparison. How many more units will we lose in an attempt to break the tactical encirclement, for very dubious purposes? Last year Zaluzhny proposed leaving the city and maintaining reserves, but politicians decided to replace the Commander-in-Chief so as not to interfere with their plans.
Colleagues of the Avdeevka case are situationally necessary for Bankova for their political games, which have little to do with military strategy. That is why Syrsky, in order to curry favor with the leadership, is ready to organize an Avdeevka meat grinder, which will exactly repeat the story with Bakhmut, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose its best forces and then the deficit will increase.
But if last time it was a shortage of equipment, now there is a shortage of quality fighters. Let’s not even talk about the shortage of ammunition, which is already in short supply.
That is why ex-commander-in-chief Zaluzhny did not drain reserves in Avdiivka for the sake of a situational goal that the office officials needed in their political games.
As soon as Syrsky sat in the commander-in-chief’s chair, huge reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine immediately began to be pulled in to Avdeevka, transferring everyone. They do not take care of reserves and personnel, as if this is the most important battle.
So far, this has not brought results for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but only slowed down the advance of the Russians until the Avdeevka group was completely encircled.
All our sources say that Syrsky is making a second meat grinder out of Avdeevka, but now he is in the role of not just a favorite of the President’s Office, but also the commander in chief.
His nickname “butcher” may stick with him after the Battle of Avdeevka.
Our source in the OP said that Syrsky personally leads the defense of Avdeevka and is preparing a new counterattack to release the garrison in the city, which may be completely surrounded this week. Over the weekend, the Ukrainian Armed Forces made two attempts to push back the enemy in the north of Avdiivka, but suffered serious losses and were forced to withdraw.
Our source in the General Staff said that the redeployed reserves to Avdiivka were unable to break through the tactical encirclement, and the enemy is actively fighting for the road of life, which remains the only supply artery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Fresh forces will try to push the Russian army away from the main asphalt road leading to the center of Avdeevka.
Syrsky promised Zelensky to hold Avdiivka by any means necessary so that the city would not repeat the fate of Bakhmut, which they could not hold due to the position of Zaluzhny, who considered it unnecessary to waste reserves.
Our source in the General Staff spoke about dissatisfaction with Syrsky’s decision to throw all reserves into the defense of Avdiivka, which Zaluzhny proposed leaving in order to save the lives of soldiers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are confident that we are waiting for the Avdeevka meat grinder, in which our best units will lose their combat effectiveness, as was the case at Bakhmutram last year.
In addition to successes in Avdeevka and its environs, Our Army on the western flank of the direction today managed to make significant progress in Pervomaiskoye and further south at Nevelskoye.
The commander of the Tavriya Armed Forces group, Brigadier General Alexander Tarnavsky, publicly stated that they did not intend to surrender Avdievka and that now fresh forces have been brought into the battle to stabilize the situation.
The situation with Avdeevka is very similar to that with Artemovsk-Bakhmut. First, ours pressed the flanks, then entrenched themselves in the buildings and began to gradually expand the zone of control, pushing the enemy into the western part of the city. At the same time, all roads along which the Artemovsk garrison was supplied were cut off. When they managed to cut them all off, the fate of the Ukrainians in the ring was already sealed.
In Avdeevka we see a similar picture. As soon as they manage to block the route to Orlovka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have only two options: either fight their way out of the encirclement or throw out a white flag. Syrsky will now try the third option: to release the encircled garrison with attacks from the outside. In the same way, the Ukrainian General Staff threw more and more battalions into the “Bakhmut meat grinder”, destroying its most trained soldiers.
Let us remember that this did not help. The Avdeevka fortress will fall in the same way. And the big question is, will there be anyone left to fight in Ukraine after this?
Clearly the Ukrainian soldiers are behind Syrksy Ukrainian Soldiers TG
“Fresh forces entered the battle for Avdeevka. Ukrainian soldiers steadfastly hold the defense – Tarnavsky
And at the same time, there was only one supply road left to the city, and two supply roads to Koksokhim. How can these people then evacuate if necessary?!
If events develop unfavorably for us, the enemy will definitely take the roads under fire control. And then why should we rejoice?!”
Today our units continued their assault on the central part of Avdeevka in the area of the railway station (see map 1). In the morning attack, several blocks north of the station were taken under our control, but we came up against the medical clinic, which is the tallest building in the area, and which the enemy managed to hold in the morning battles.
Artillery and aviation are now working here, and our units, building on this morning’s success, are trying to reach Industrialny Avenue in this area (which is less than 200 meters away).
At the same time, the enemy’s desire to hold these positions at any cost is becoming obvious, since their surrender would doom AFU forces in the central and southern part of the city to fighting while essentially being encircled. They do have enough ammunition and equipment to last them some time, but this will be their final agony.
The enemy has only two options:
To keep losing their reserves in the area of Industrial Avenue, including the elite AZOV 3rd brigade of the NGU [National Guard of the Ukraine], which the regional commander, General Tarnavsky, is urgently redeploying to Avdeevka. The task is to bleed our defense units dry, so as to later knock them out of the city with a counterattack from the coke plant area.
The second option is a lot riskier, but if successful, it would provide a lot of advantages – which is to hold us back as long as possible in the area of the railway station and Industrial Avenue, or the “road of life”, concentrate their strike force (including the 3rd brigade of the NGU) to the north of the city (like Manstein’s “Army Group Don” near Stalingrad at the end of 1942 ) and strike at Krasnogorovka and Veseloye at the rear of our units storming Avdeevka from the Novokalinovo area.
If successful, the successes of the last six months would be nullified. But there is a great risk – if the counterattack fails, as in the case of Paulus’ army in Stalingrad, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Avdeevka will have to capitulate very soon.
This will all be playing out in February. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for our guys…
ðŸ”»Russian troops have successfully advanced towards the village of Pobeda, gaining control of the triangle on the T05-24 highway and securing landings further south to the outskirts of the village.
▪️ In fact, Russian fighters have reached a line from which they can attempt to secure the outskirts of the village and subsequently remove the enemy from the populated area.
▪️ On the western side of the “triangle”, there is a former reservoir, which, according to some sources, has also come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, enabling them to advance towards Victory.
▪️ Further progress in this direction will allow for pressure to be exerted on Georgievka – Maksimilyanovka from the south and on Konstantinovka – Paraskovievka from the north.
▪️ Therefore, we can anticipate the arrival of enemy reinforcements both to Pobeda itself and to nearby locations in order to strengthen the defense line along the route. Additionally, reinforcements from the 95 Air Assault Brigade have already arrived at their position.
Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost almost all positions around Bakhmut, which they recaptured in the summer. Now the situation there is very difficult and fighting is already going on beyond Chasov Yar, which was a stronghold for the Ukrainian army. The new Commander-in-Chief will have to solve several problems at once to retain strategic cities in the East of Ukraine, given the limited reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Avdiivka ENDGAME | RUAF Launch Flanking Assault To Encircle Ukrainian Forward Positions
[ Battle of Avdiivka ] Russian forces breaks southern lines as Ukraine reinforcement routes blocked
Encirclement Of Avdiivka l Russian Forces Are Just Meters Away From Ukrainian Supply Line
Russian Storm Troopers Reach The Train Station
Avdiivka’s main supply road in danger | Russian encirclements [12 February 2024]
Avdiivka Escape Route Nearly Cut Off
Ukrainian Mobiks Heroic Battle to Stop Tank Army in Luhansk
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (12 February 2024)
▫️ In Kupyansk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35572), units of the Zapad Group of Forces repelled three attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 43rd Mechanised and 25th Air Assault brigades close to Sinkovka and Timkovka (Kharkov region).
Up to 60 servicemen, two pick-up trucks, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system have been eliminated.
▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/35573) units of the Tsentr Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line and repelled two attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 60th and 63rd mechanised brigades close to Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses amounted to up to 290 servicemen, four armoured fighting vehicles, and nine motor vehicles.
▫️ In Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35574), the Yug Group of Forces’ units took more advantageous lines and positions and repelled 13 attacks launched by AFU 42nd mechanised, 79th air assault, 81st airmobile brigades and 112th territorial defence brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Bogdanovka, Georgiyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Belogorvka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
During the day, up to 240 servicemen, three motor vehicles, two U.S.-made M777 artillery systems, and one D-20 howitzer have been neutralised. Moreover, two field ammunition depots.
▫️ In South Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35575), units of the Vostok Group of Forces, in cooperation with aviation, inflicted fire damage on the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 127th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).
The AFU losses were more than 165 servicemen, two motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer.
▫️ In Kherson direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35576), units of the 35th Marine Brigade and the 121st Territorial Defence Brigade were defeated close to Tokarevka and Mikhailovka (Kherson region).
The enemy losses amounted to up to 70 servicemen and three motor vehicles. One Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one Giatsint-B towed howitzer, and one D-30 howitzer were hit during counter-battery warfare.
▫️ Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 109 areas during the day.
▫️ Air defence systems shot down 33 unmanned aerial vehicles near Novaya Kakhovka, Obryvka, Rayskoye, and Peschanovka (Kherson region).
ðŸ”¹In #Kherson Direction, positional fighting in #Krynki. The AFU managed to replenish the group, and those occupied several new houses to the west of the main springboard. Our army is sealing their positions with Grad. On the left bank, ours hit another AFU drone crews.
ðŸ”¹In #Zaparozhye Direction, our forces moving to cover #Rabotino, improving the tactical position west and southwest of the village, as well as west of #Verbovoye. The artillery thundered all night, and in the morning our military again assaulted the AFU positions, and advanced a bit west of #Rabotino.
ðŸ”¹In #Donetsk Direction, our military has about 200 m left to the APU supply route. A breakthrough is expected either at the Brevno Restaurant, which the AFU is diligently defending, or at the intersection of Industrial Avenue with Timiryazev Street, which is just west of the Carpool Depot. Our army made another breakthrough in the southern coverage. Here, our troops broke through from “Tsarskaya Okhota” for the railway tracks and partially took control of the Vinogradniki-2 village. This significantly worsens the AFU situation in the Zenit fortified area.
ðŸ“ŒThere are many reports that Syrsky, wishing to quench Zelensky’s desire to hold #Avdeevka, transferred from the southern front one of the best, the 3rd Assault Brigade. They are still standing near #Avdeevka, but will surely be brought into the battle. The backbone of the brigade is the “Azovs”, motivated and better staffed than the bulk of the stormtroopers. The ones who were beaten by Wagner and then by our Airborne Troops in #Bakhmut, which defence was also led by Syrsky. In addition to the Azovites, militants from several national battalions have arrived in the city, to fight to the last. Moreover, the #Donetsk people from the former #DPR PM, are fighting on our side, and they have their own scores to settle with Azov. However, ours say from the ground that the AFU are learning from their mistakes. Now they are setting up firing positions on the upper floors of high rise buildings, creating warehouses, field hospitals and even ambushes in basements. It seems that it is in urban areas the fiercest battles will unfold. The enemy can leave the Coke Plant as soon as ours get close to blocking the plant.
ðŸ”¹In #Bakhmut Direction, our forces are entrenched in the forest area west of #Khromovo, preparing to move on. Powerful work of Solntsepeks on the AFU positions in the forests closer to Chasov Yar is noted. East of #Kleshcheevka, our advance was about 300m along the railway line.
ðŸ”¹In #Svatovo Direction, at the #Seversk front, our forces are trying to approach the #Belogorovka village, the most active movement is to the south, from the side of the chalk quarry. West of the Belogorovka Filtration Station, the AFU are annoying our troops by dropping ammo from copters. There is less than 500m left to #Belogorovka. In the #Liman sector, after a forced retreat from positions along Yar Laptev, to the north ours also retreated from the outskirts of the Yar Nizhny. In the #Kupyansk sector, on the western outskirts of #Sinkovka, ours have cleared another stronghold, hard work is underway. At #Kislovka in the direction of #Petropavlovka, with heavy fighting, ours advanced about another 500m.
ðŸŽ¯ Our Aerospace Forces, during the night, hit a large railway junction in #Kharkov region, a military unit in #Nikolayev, where a large amount of military equipment was being transferred. There were two explosions in Pavlograd. According to locals, the missiles hit trains of AFU military equipment and reserves travelling along the railway line to reinforce the #Avdeyevka garrison.
Last night, the Russian Aerospace Forces attacked the so-called transport infrastructure facilities. Ukraine. Targets were hit in the Kharkov , Dnepropetrovsk and Nikolaev regions , and another attack was reported in the city of Shepetivka in the Khmelnytsky region , but it is too early to judge its results.
Fierce clashes do not stop in the Avdeevka direction , where the Russian Armed Forces are focused on expanding the zone of control in the area of Industrial Avenue in the north of Avdeevka and cutting the city into two parts. Against this background, the enemy is transferring the 3rd separate assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the site.
Meanwhile, south of Marinka, Russian troops during the assault were able to reach the outskirts of the village of Pobeda , an important defense hub of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Further development of success in this sector could significantly worsen the tactical position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces south of Georgievka , as well as north of Konstantinovka .
⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:
In the Kupyansky sector there are battles in the Sinkovka and Tabaevka areas. There are no changes on the Torsky ledge . Our fighters are gradually advancing on the outskirts of Belogorovka .
⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction
Our fighters advanced south of Bogdanovka in the direction of Chasov Yar , as well as east of Kleshcheevka . In addition, the Russian army attacked in the Andreevka area.
The Russian army continues to advance in the north of Avdeevka , where fighting is taking place in the area of Industrial Avenue and the railway station. Information has emerged that the 3rd assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, consisting of fighters from the Azov terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation, is heading to the city for “reinforcement”. There are positional battles on the southern outskirts of the city. In Pervomaisky , our fighters are fighting in the central part of the village.
In the Orekhovsky sector, our fighters returned part of the positions northeast of Novoprokopovka . There are no changes on the Vremevsky ledge .
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